Well if they ignore Phi on J1 and you’ve built a Russian bmb on R1 then we know a few things:
1. 2 jpn trn are in sz 37. The only units they can transport to Phi are either in Bur or in FIC for some reason. Any unit coming from Bur didn’t go to Ind.
2. Your Russian bmb took out a trn in sz 38. Nothing is moving from Sum this turn. That leaves only a brn trn heading for Ind.
The big question remains: did the Axis player leave the trn starting in 62 vulnerable to the US bmb? If he did, it’s likely that either Phi or Ind will fall, but not both.
So, build your factory in relative peace. If youv’e committed 3 inf and 1 arm from Russia, that allows for 8 ground forces, an AA gun, and what amounts to essentially an extra bullet shield in the bmb. If the Egy ftr survived G1, and you know if it did before you do anything at all, you’re in even better shape. J2’s essentially the only turn that concerns an Indian IC at all. Find a way to get clear of it, and I promise you that 95/100 times, played right, that factory’s got game balance in its hands.
If he’s chosen to leave the US with 55+ for two turns in a row, they BETTER be doing something to work against the Japanese. It’s still salvageable in the Pacific becuase, well, 110 IPCs into the ocean in 2 turns is tough to deal with for any faction, but you better be able to do meaningful damage immediately, because you gave a free factory up in India.
Only build a factory in India on UK1 if you’re SURE it will hold to UK2. If you’re not, there’s nothing wrong with putting up a good fight for a territory worth 8 IPCs to the Japanese. Keep everything on it, pile the Russians into it, and prepare to reinforce it with US planes and Russian inf next turn if it’s there. The longer it takes Japan to settle into there, the better Russia is for it.