G1 Egypt Attack

[Smoke]

Re: https://www.axisandallies.org/forums/topic/12058/is-the-g1-egypt-attack-a-good-move

(with NO’s on) Germany is favored to take Egypt on G1, in which case Italy takes trans jordan on their turn to get both NO’s and be way stronger than any other option, so it is really a must. Even if G1 fails and Egypt is empty or has 1 british fighter, Italy takes Egypt on turn 1 and sets up for trans on turn 2 for the national objective and much needed cash. In my experience, buffing Italy up with more money for at least the beginning of the game is more important than a few british ships being let to live on G1.

[leebear]

@smoke I absolutely agree. I played a solo game recently and was able to afford a carrier and another fighter with Italy, meaning there was no early threat to its navy. This is a game changer. The British ships that are left don’t appear to have any real impact on the game.

[Argothair]

@leebear I would suggest that if the extra British ships aren’t making a difference then the British player isn’t using them well. If you send the German bomber to Egypt then Britain either keeps both Atlantic transports, or Britain keeps the destroyer and cruiser near Gibraltar.

With two transports, it is nearly impossible for Germany to protect France; Britain can attack turn 1 with 2 inf, 1 art, 1 tank, 2 ftr, 1 bmr, and 1 BB bombard. To protect against that you would have to leave almost the entire German starting army in France, meaning that your front against Russia is in danger of collapse from a Russian counterattack; you can lose your tanks or lose control of the NO for Baltics, East Poland, and Ukraine. If you don’t protect against it, then Britain gets $6 for France plus $5 for the NO, plus the US gets $5, and you can’t land planes there on G2. This sets up a cycle where Brian has enough cash to keep retaking France each turn, which is at least as valuable as the Italian NOs. You can somewhat prevent these problems by having Italy retake France, but that means keeping the Italian forces back from the eastern front, and buying mostly army rather than navy for Italy, which kind of defeats the point of having a strong Italy – you can still lose the Italian fleet in the middlegame.

On the other hand, if you leave Britain with the destroyer and cruiser off Gibraltar and the Egyptian fighter survives, then Brian can attack the Italian fleet immediately on turn 1 with 1 destroyer, 1 cruiser, 1 fighter, and 1 bomber; before Italy has a chance to build a carrier. Britain is mildly favored to win that battle. If you play with any kind of bid, Britain can add a sub to that fleet and become strongly favored to win that battle.

None of this is to say that you shouldn’t attack Egypt on G1…it’s fine if that’s where you like to focus the Axis energy. It’s just that you’re not getting a free lunch, because leaving more than the bare minimum of British ships alive ought to give the Allies plenty of counterbalancing advantages.