I think Japan still would have invaded the Soviet Union though, if the Second Sino-Japanese War continued (the oil embargo only really happened once they invaded Indochina).
Other than that I agree with you. That would be curious alternate reality.
If Japan had attacked the USSR, would Germany have defeated the Soviets?
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@RogertheShrubber:
Ithkral is right on every point. Japan did try to advance in to the Soviet Union in 1939 in a border dispute in Mongolia. The Kwangtung army was massecred, by, you name it, Georgi Zhukov. Stalin sent him there to dispel the Japanese past the Khalka River. The defeat was such a set back it completely altered Japanese motive to even engage the Russians again. The result of this battle turned japanese war planning toward the US and the eventual attack on Pearl Harbor.
I don’t quite agree. Had the Japanese won what really amounted to a proxy war, I don’t think they would have entered a total war with a nation who’s population was four times theirs, vastly larger in physical size, and vastly out ranking them in terms of natural resources. Besides, communists aren’t known for their niceness (not that Tojo was a picnic, but I digress).
Japan wanted China to be their India, a large colony they could exploit for wealth. They fought in Mongolia for the same reasons the British fought in Afghanistan. They wanted a secure boarder for the crown jewel of their empire.
War with the Soviet Union and the United States would have been equally stupid. The only difference was that the Soviets were not in the way when the Japanese needed oil, where as the US was, both geographically (the Philippines) economically, (the embargo), militarily (the fleet at Pearle Harbor), and politically (threat of intervention).
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However i am not sure I quite agree with you. Had the Japanese defeated Stalin’s Far East divisions at Nomonhan, Zhukov would not have won Stalin’s confidennce, probably would not have been given overall command in late 41 let alone any, changing the leadership in the Russian and German front. A Japanese victory at Nomonhan along with possible German success in the Barbarossa campaign possibly would have been enough for Japan to engage Russia after pleas from Hitler to Japan’s war ministry to enter the war. Gen Eugene Ott, the German ambassador in Japan did urge the Japanese to enter the war against Russia on the behalf of Hitler '41. He pleaded, “Avenge the defeat at Nomonhan and seize the Soviet Far East, but do it now. If you wait till I defeat Stalin I won’t need you anymore.” Top Japanese Army leaders believe it or not did favor that route, but Naval commanders voted against it, due to the embarrassment and the possibility of aquireing defenseless French and Dutch colonies in the Pacific. As soon as the decision was made to strike the US, the top soviet spy in tokyo cabled Moscow that the Japanese were moving into the southern Pacific. At this moment Stalin was able to move Fifteen Divisions, three cavalry divisions, 1,700 tanks, and 1,500 aircraft to the European theater. It was these powerful reinforcements and Zhukov that turned the tide against Germany. So I wouldn’t go so far as to say if the Japs did win the “proxy” war, Japan would not have helped a “Threatening Hitler” if he was about to take Moscow.
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If Zhukov had lost, Stalin probably would have “purged” him.
You make an excellent argument. I was not aware of the Japanese Army’s desire to take the Far East. It certainly does make sense as well that the German halt in Russia would somewhat coincide with the strike against Pearle Harbor. You are well learned for a shrubber. +1 Karma. :-) In that case I must concede the argument that had Japan at least threatened the USSR, it could have turned the tide in the war.
However, if what you say is correct about the Japanese Army’s desire to invade the Far East, it only supports my point that the embargo of '37 is what drew the Japanese to attack Pearle Harbor, not the Battle of Khalkhin-Gol. The Japanese Empire needed oil to run, and the only way to get it was in the South Pacific, and the only way to attack the South Pacific was to eliminate the threat of the American Fleet at Pearle.
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Isn’t History fun! Your points are without a doubt valid. The embargo pretty much diminished Japan’s Imperialistic goals forcing them to run the gambit in military action against the United States. I think what needs to be taken from the Nomonhan Incident is what it shaped for the future. Win or lose Japan probably would not invade like you said, because their interest was oil. Nomonhan was, after all, only a border dispute that started out as skirmishes with Mongolian mounted cavalry. But it grew to an escalated engagement with many History shaping individuals like Zhukov and Masanobu Tsuji (Who was the architect of the engagement, and would later lead campaigns in Malay-Singapore, lead the Bataan Death marches in the Philippines, but would later lose horribly in Guadalcanal). I think the focus is on the battle itself and the future reprocussions it would have. Thats why in my original post I posted a “no” answer because before '41 that decision was already decided. As far as the Imperial Army’s preference in taking the Soviet Far East after Hitler’s plea is unclear to me as well. I know it is in fact true, but I am going to have to go back and do some more researching and I will be sure to get back to you when I have the facts. What my inclination is that some of Japan’s high commanders were concerned that if Hitler did take Russia without Japan, he would no longer need Japan and would no longer provide Political or Militaristic support in nature, leaving Japan by itself in its Imperial interests and goals. I think the idea of helping Hitler and reaping some of the spoils, they felt he would still be their aid and ally in the end (Which probably would not be the case, I would assume Hitler would drop Japan as an ally either way after he completed Lebensraum.) But like i said i will get back to the forum with facts behind the Imperial Army’s motives and why they actually supported such an idea.
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Yes, I love history. I actually took two history courses this semester: Western Civ II and Am. Hist. II. Mostly b/c the teacher is great. I spoke with her, and she has agreed to help me start an Axis and Allies Club!!! :-D
Another interesting note is that the embargo was almost lifted in 1940. The Japanese had actually offered to withdraw from China, with the exception of Manchuria, which would act as a buffer state against Russian (which had long before the Revolution wanted to make China its “India” as well). In exchange, the US would lift the embargo. FDR was about to accept the deal, but a cabinet member (forgive me, I can’t recall his name) was against it. I forget the exact details. I’ll have to come back w/ some research as well.
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Turtle, here is some historical information on the Japanese motive and view for aggression against the Soviet Union. http://www.militaryhistoryonline.com/20thcentury/articles/nomonhan.aspx, also I subscribe to WORLD WAR II magazine, and in the May 2009 issue there is a good article about it. Enjoy
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sweat. thank you. btw, Monty Python rocks!
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if japan had of attacked the ussr. Germany would have bet USSR. but the reason why japan and russia signed the pack was because russia had to worry about GERMANY and Japan had to worry about America. So if japan attacked ussr, ussr would have went down in flames then germany and japan would be in a link-up phase with Germany therefore they could help eachother out and not have like mutiple fronts
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@Imperious:
I think If Japan only attacked the Soviets in 41, Stalin would have to divert alot of his forces to fight and gave Germany an easier task in June. But realistically Japan could not even hope to get more than the immediate areas north of Manchukuo. Their is no way they had the resources to get to Moscow or anything like that. The loss of the Far east would have meant nothing to Stalin except that he would send reinforcements to push them back, but this was not in Japans interests because it didn’t translate into a solution for her crude oil shortage.
It was also a war aim for either the Army or Navy and took Japan away from her natural sphere of influence which was to remove all the colonial powers from Asia and dominate China. Japan was not in the war to fight for German interests and the so called “alliance” was nothing but a slip of paper describing the fact that in all likelihood they would all eventually be fighting the same enemies so by inference they are on a “team”.
but look at it simpler: they could of taken Vladivostok, took away the siberian divisions who were needed to stop operation typhoon, and could of stopped allied supplies to the USSR through the trans-siberian railway
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Here is great show on the Military History Channel about Soviet and Japanese tensions. It’s very good.
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@Captain:
NO NO NO a thousand times No!
1.) Japan was already heavily committed in a land war in China
2.) Battle of Khalkhin Gol in 1938 left the Japanese feeling reluctant to engage the Soviet Union in a land war
3.) Japan did not have huge mechanized armies, The Japanese army was not the Wermacht. Fighting and staying supplied in Siberia is a logistical nightmare.
4.) Japan was forced into a defensive posture within 6-7 months of the US finally joining the war, making offensive operations after this point limited and costly.
5.) The Soviet Far east did not contain the resources Japan needed for the war, The Dutch East Indies and French Indo China did.If Japan made a serious attempt to invade the Soviet Union, via Siberia they would have lost the war very very quickly.
Captain, I agree wholeheartedly-espcecially your comment about the heavy Jap committment to China, I would if you’ll permit me, also add that the bulk of the Japanese Army in WW2 was not only heavily committed agains the Chinese, but there were very sizable forces guarding against a possible
Soviet attack in the far east, despite the Jpanese-Soviet non- agression pact!So let’s turn this around and say instead- What if the Japanese removed forces from Mancukou and thus had more forces available at the begining of these campaigns: Say another 1-2 regiments on Iwo Jima, another division on Guadalcanal, another 1-2 diisions on Okinawa, another 1-2 divisons to defend the Philipines….
Think about it…
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For reasons stated, it was not in Japan’s best intrest to attack Russia. HOWEVER, it was in the Axis best intrest that they would have attacked. I didn’t get to read all the posts, (so maybe it has been mentioned) but almost the entire Russian Stalingrad offensesive used troops that had been stationed as a deterent to stop the Japanese from attacking. A Soviet Spy in Japan informed Stalin that Japan had no intention of attacking them. How differently would the war have gone if the Battle of stalingrad was won by the Germans? The Volga river being cut off… the oil fields in the Caucus falling into German hands?
I contend that the Japs did not have to attack Russia, just declare war. That would have kept the troops there. I am not sure on the distance, but if possible I would have bombed Russian factories that had just run east from advancing Germans.
I think the real question here is could the Russians have beaten the Germans if the battle of stalingrad became a German victory, which I am certain it would have been if the Japs had at least threatened an attack in the East.
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@Captain:
NO NO NO a thousand times No!
1.) Japan was already heavily committed in a land war in China
2.) Battle of Khalkhin Gol in 1938 left the Japanese feeling reluctant to engage the Soviet Union in a land war
3.) Japan did not have huge mechanized armies, The Japanese army was not the Wermacht. Fighting and staying supplied in Siberia is a logistical nightmare.
4.) Japan was forced into a defensive posture within 6-7 months of the US finally joining the war, making offensive operations after this point limited and costly.
5.) The Soviet Far east did not contain the resources Japan needed for the war, The Dutch East Indies and French Indo China did.If Japan made a serious attempt to invade the Soviet Union, via Siberia they would have lost the war very very quickly.
Captain, I agree wholeheartedly-espcecially your comment about the heavy Jap committment to China, I would if you’ll permit me, also add that the bulk of the Japanese Army in WW2 was not only heavily committed agains the Chinese, but there were very sizable forces guarding against a possible
Soviet attack in the far east, despite the Jpanese-Soviet non- agression pact!So let’s turn this around and say instead- What if the Japanese removed forces from Mancukou and thus had more forces available at the begining of these campaigns: Say another 1-2 regiments on Iwo Jima, another division on Guadalcanal, another 1-2 diisions on Okinawa, another 1-2 divisons to defend the Philipines….
Think about it…
Ok, now consider the consequences of removing those forces from China and the pacific? Japan never won the war in China, with reduced manpower you have the threat of Chang and Mao actually going on the offensive.
The only chance this scenario has is if Japan does not attack Pearl Harbour and goes to war with the Soviet Union at the same time as Germany, but for what? The resources Japan needed are in the South, in Indonesia and Malaysia, not in Siberia. Japan does not have an army capable of the warfare required to fight and move across the great distances of the Soviet Union. Logistically it was impossible for Japan to fight that far inland.
For me this whole concept is bizarre. As a Master of Strategy and a man who wrote said Masters on Japan in WWII I find the concept of Japan attacking the Soviet Union, bombing the Ural factories and rolling tanks into Moscow just laughable. It’s on par with “What if Iraq had won desert storm?”
Sorry if I sound all snooty and condescending, it just can agree with the pro points in this thread.
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@ Captain Kiwi, I agree with your assessment, but this is a “what if discussion”.
Ofc Japan would not go very far towards Moscow, as they did not manage to conquer China. Also, the whole idea with this “what if” question is that Japan do not attack the US, this is the same concept that Germany should not attack the US.
Now, Japan marching towards Moscow is fantasy, the would die b/c of lack of logistics long before they even reached Yakut.
What if Iraq won the desert storm, I would not believe it if it happened, or US lost the war against Iraq. Not possible.
But there were some reports during 2006 that situation in Iraq was close to become a civil war, so even if no one doubted that the US would win the invading process, they could lose the occupation segment.But remember the Vietnam war, the greatest and mightiest superpower vs a small poor country of peasants. US lost that war, who would believe it?
The difference in terrain difficulty and the experience from Vietnam and Iraq is probably one of the reasons why Nato was reluctant to engage in big scale war with many ground units vs Serbia.I definitely agree with that Japan would lose against the US anyhow, as they would lose against Russia if they went another direction. But sometimes not even the Powell doctrine is enough for the strongest side to avoid a lost war. Sometimes the strong part gets diced.
Also Japan could invent the A-bomb, but they needed more time probably than the US was willing to give. That is another discussion though.
This is related to the A&A discussions, the game starts in 41, so if Japan should ever be an annoying threat to Stalin, Japan must have started preparations for war against Russia in 1930, if not sooner. But this scenario would not happen, b/c Japan+Germany could never be allies in the same way that US+UK was allied. -
Japan could not get to Moscow, EVEN if they were given tickets to ride the train from Vladivostok.
If they were at war just look at what happened in China and subtract 500 to obtain the result.
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Well, I agree, same principle as it is possible to be diced, though extremely unlikely, in Revised w/o bid and even lose the game, to have Japan reach Moscow is mostly the same as to win against experienced players as axis in Classic w/o bid. I’m not too much into all the details for the real WW2, but even if we give the Japs 20 years, how far could they reach?
And for the Vietnam war vs the Gulf War, when we look back we can understand that it is possible to lose the first one, but not the last one, and this is related to the Japan vs Russia prospect.
Japan can only reach so far, and that is not very far, how about Yakut or something similar? Also, the US would win the Nam war if they really wanted to. -
@Deaths:
I think I would have to say that a Japanese invasion of the Soviet Far East would have more Benificial for the Axis Powers then the Attack on th USA and her possesions. If Japan timed her invasion of Russia with the Germans Operation Barborossa, I do not think that Russia would Have been Able to Recover from that. The Problem really lies within Japans Ability to Render China Useless as a War Machine. IMHO Japan Should have secured Peace on the Chinese front Before attacking anybody else.
Now the reality of it all Lies with Mother Russia. What ever side she is On, WILL win the War. History teaches us that the Land mass of that size, is VERY,VERY Difficult to control for any invading Power
But……
The Outcome of WWII in my opinion was/is largly based on Germany’s inability to knock the British out of the war. Had Germany been able to do that, I don’t think it would really matter what Japan did after that point.
The only problem with Speculating about this is Hind sight is always 20/20. It is easy to say now, what the Axis Powers did wrong or where they went wrong with their War “Game Plan”.
So i guess that depending on Japans Timing of a russian Invasion really won’t matter unless Japan did not have to fight China also. Not to mention that Japanes Armour would have been tore apart facing the T-34 or any Russian tank for that Matter.
Germany and Japan should have Been Better friends and Cooperate their Military Might. What I mean is What if Japan had Never Attacked the US. But instead took that same Pearl Harbour Fleet and a SNLF with them and Instead attacked Egypt and the Suez Canal along with Rommel and his Afrika Corps. Egypt would surely fall and allow the Axis Powers access to the Suez and Basically the entire Middle East and her Vast oil resources. Since Pearl Harbour Never took place, Amerika would still only be a Material supplier and not a Man power supplier…
they had plans for invading the middle-east, but they knew they would not have enough forces, they didn’t even come through India
(Japan had great navy, but mediocre landarmy)
so they planned invasion of Australia, but of course, at the battle of the Coral sea… -
It wouldn’t matter if Japan attacks russia or not at this point of time.
The german OKH decided not to go for Moscow after Juli 27th and Hitlers decission was to go for four Russian armys (5th,21st,26th and 37th) in the area of Gomel and Kiev under the considerations that those forces are threaten the flanks of Heeresgruppe Sued and rather be a good opportunity to encircle and destroy them!…
After that the Moscow push came to an Halt again.
The majority of the Panzerverbaende had to keep the back floodding russians at bay or help out to destroy certain pockets…when they finally regrouped for the PUSH to Moscow again time was allready running out and winter came close…It’s still amazing that a platoon of
Artillery reconnaissance came that close to Moscow that they could look through their binoculars and see the Kremel…
If Japan would attack pearl harbor the next year it would have maybe an Impact on the Easternfront.
Japan was a threat no matter what ,because it held the Sibirian forces on the borders to China and if Japan would have been successful w. an attack is written on another paper…
Also is to consider how it would end if General Guderian wasn’t set back for the difficulties he had w. General Kleist…thats my Input on this Topic -
Moot question. Japan DID attack the USSR TWICE in minor border flare-ups in Korea (1938) and Manchuria (1939) already before Hitler’s Operation Barbarossa was launched. Japs got their asses handed to them by coordinated tank and infantry assaults and lack of communication between air and land forces. After losing both times, mostly due to lack of armor on the Japanese side, they decided to pick a fight with someone they could whup up on in the ocean, the U.S. in the Pacific.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Halhin_Gol
(This is also the battle where Zhukov earned his stars and let him to become one of the top soviet generals against the Germans in '41)
If the Japs actually DID attack the Soviet Union in 1941 in measurable numbers, not sure how well they would have fared since air/naval battles were their specialty and they STILL had huge deficits in armor, compared to the Soviets. The Reds had the best tanks in the world for the first couple years of the war, and their production capacity would have overwhelmed any newcoming designs (German Tiger/Panther production was pathetic throughout the war, the only serious contenders to the Soviet T-34s and KVs, which were unmatched in their time). Chances are the Japs would have bogged down somewhere in Mongolia or Vladivostok and had another stalemate with superior Soviet forces holding the line, which I bet even with overwhelming Jap numbers and German attacks in the West would have held the line.
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