Stopping the J3 Calcutta crush

[simon33]

In a recent game, someone did a Java stack turn 1 with 3inf 1AAA 1tac and 5 fighters. Also, SZ42 had a DD to prevent bombardment. Now, the attack on the Philippines, with a J1 DOW, had a triple hit against the Japanese so only an artillery remained. Also, the Borneo transport could only bring inf. This made the attack on Java a 45% probability.

Perhaps optimal Axis moves would have meant losing a plane in the Philippines battle to keep an art and a tank (which could have been used rather than 2 art). Also, leaving an inf on Siam. Such moves would mean that an attack on Java would be a +7IPC battle on average https://goo.gl/ScnPJT .

So would such an attack be worth it for Japan? Did I leave a gap for the allies by keeping my planes in the Philippines battle? I’m inclined to think it probably would be worth it to trade plane for plane for Japan in this case.

Now if you have a bid, should you spend 10 of it to block such an attack by Japan? It then becomes a 40% battle. Perhaps the battle is still viable for Japan? Should you spend 20 to make it even harder?

Next thing is if the Allied planes get back to India, it becomes a very dodgy battle to take India J3, typically costing more than half the Japanese air force. Really don’t think that is worth it.

@Cow previously commented that the J3 India crush should work or at worst be deferred to J4. Perhaps he’s right if the Axis play optimally and there’s no bid units. Curious if he has any additional thoughts?

[PainState]

@simon33

Well, it seems to me the only reason to worry about a J3/J4 Calcutta crush scenario is if you are playing in a TT tournament which rewards a VP for Japan to perform the crush move.

IF you are playing a standard game on table top or Triple AAA the Crush is a no bueno move for Japan if the USA player has any skill level what so ever.

[simon33]

@PainState said in Stopping the J3 Calcutta crush:

@simon33

Well, it seems to me the only reason to worry about a J3/J4 Calcutta crush scenario is if you are playing in a TT tournament which rewards a VP for Japan to perform the crush move.

IF you are playing a standard game on table top or Triple AAA the Crush is a no bueno move for Japan if the USA player has any skill level what so ever.

I don’t agree. If you take India you get a free IC, a bit of plunder and most importantly you stop an enemy from producing units. What part of this is not of benefit to the Axis? I don’t think fighting China first is as profitable.

[DizzKneeLand33]

The one possible disadvantage I see is that your fleet is totally out of position in the Pacific. Whether that is a big deal or not depends on the game, just something to think about.

[simon33]

Even if the allies bid a couple of mechs (Burma, Malaya) it seems like this is still not stoppable with average dice. Burma can be taken amphibiously J2, and so Shan State cannot be retaken providing all the Chinese infantry in Yunnan and inf in Malaya are killed. Assuming the sea zones are protected from any amphibious assaults.

Hmm, I’ve always been a skeptic. Seems I’m now a convert.

[DessertFox599]

The Calcutta Crush opens up opportunities for japan in middle east as well.

[simon33]

Here’s a radical suggestion for stopping the Calcutta crush without a bid:
C1:
Flying tiger to Burma
Leave as big a stack as possible within range of Yunnan.

UK1:
If SZ37 Cruiser is still alive, attack with DD, and all planes
DD to SZ37
Cruiser to SZ38 or to SZ37 if DD dies in battle (SZ38 means Japan has to commit a plane or it can’t use any planes from CVs in SZ36/SZ43)
TT from SZ39 picks up 2 inf from Malaya to Burma
Everything India -> Burma
All planes land on Burma
SZ71 DD -> SZ79 (West India)
French DD SZ72 -> SZ79

With all of this, Burma is well not quite impregnable J2 but too expensive to take down.

C2/UK2 you have to retake Yunnan and Shan state if the Japanese put down an airbase and probably otherwise, or Japan can plonk down their entire airforce on those territories. After that, retreat to India. The extra round of inf bought will make the naval assault too hard J4 without land based planes. By J5 Japan will probably have enough because its troops can have walked across from the Chinese coast and it’s unlikely you’ll be able to stop it applying the entire air force, well unless the USA gives it better things to do I suppose.

Radical plan with a bid? Bid a fighter, land on Java with UK and ANZAC, fly all the planes there, use the ANZAC DD to block bombardment. With the ANZAC planes reaching India, it will be real hard to take India J3. Assumes that Japan doesn’t win the SZ62 attack. If Japan can fill and use all 3 TTs to attack Java, it’s still only 37% and -7IPCs. Not great for the allies but not great for the Axis either.

I don’t think either of these plans is as good as a Yunnan stack if you have enough of a bid to do that.

[Quirky Turtle]

Additionally you can declare war on Japan in R1 and fly 1 fighter from Moscow to Yunnan. This means the opening in J1 there will be a lot more hairy. The fighter can retreat to Calcutta or Russia in R2 having served the purpose of slowing the Japanese opening.
Fun way to throw Japanese players of balance first time you play this.

[simon33]

@Quirky-Turtle if you do that, it’s too easy for Japan to kill the Soviet fighter imo. I guess this is more important in bm than vanilla, due to intercept on a 2 instead of a 1. Also, Wouldn’t you bring the tac too?

[Quirky Turtle]

The main reason would be to delay the Japanese attack for a turn or have them suffer heavy losses when attacking or potentially leaving the burma road open.
It forces Japan to make choices on where it wants to go and at what cost

Bringing the tac is an option but the loss of both planes may seriously undermine russias defense capability

[A Former User]

@simon33
Nice suggestion about stopping the early crush. I think this should work!