@DarthMaximus:
If your strat fails in LL you might as well never try it ADS, b/c it is clear you’d need some type of major roll-up (luck) to win, which means you’ll lose more game then you will win with that strat.
Now if your strat succeeds in LL it should work in ADS with “avg” or “good” dice, and probably won’t work with bad dice. But if you’re constantly getting bad dice all game it really doesn’t matter your strat, cause you had no shot at winning anyway.
NOT true.
Strategies that are excellent for Low Luck utterly fail with normal dice, and strategies that are excellent for normal dice utterly fail with Low Luck.
Battles under Low Luck have far more controllable outcomes. Therefore, instead of coming up with, say, a 75% probability of a winning or acceptable outcome as with regular dice, you instead have a 95% probability of a winning or acceptable outcome under Low Luck. This difference in probability is compounded over time, allowing the Low Luck player to carry out multiple battles with high probability of success, whereas the SAME EXACT attacks with regular dice would result in probable failure for at least one of those battles. Thus, the Low Luck player does NOT have to deal with the possible opening in his/her position that bad dice rolls would result in, while the regular dice player DOES have to deal with possible openings.
This is why I think Low Luck players require less skill than regular dice players. Low Luck players can predict battle results with higher accuracy BECAUSE they are playing Low Luck, and so do NOT have to worry about the other results that could happen.
Illustration?
I’ll go ahead and use the OOB/FAQ G1 LRA Sealion, as it offers the most dramatic and understandable view on the differences between Low Luck and regular dice. (The same holds true to a lesser extent for attacks such as the 3-territory R1 attack which is ridiculous in ADS but feasible for Low Luck - but I digress).
Say R1 does NOT lead with an attack on Ukraine and does not fly fighters to London (which is improbable in the first place if Low Luck is in play, but I digress)
Under LowLuck, G1 responds with 6 LRA tech dice and a transport buy. After the AA gun on London fires, Germany invades 5/6 of the time to sea zone adjacent to W. Europe and London with 5 fighters, 1 bomber, 1 infantry, and 1 tank fighting against 1 bomber 2 infantry 1 artillery 1 tank 2 fighter. Germany almost certainly wins with a tank and a bomber, taking the UK for an income of 72+ some. The German Atlantic sub attacks the E. Canada sub with high probability of winning, and the German Med fleet moves west, grabbing Gibraltar.
If the German attack on E. Canada succeeds, UK cannot retake London. US can only invade with 2 inf 1 art 1 tank 1 bomber (landing on Greenland). Germany responds on G2 by retaking London with 3 inf 3 tank 1 bomber (1 transport from Baltic, 1 transport from G1 buy, 1 transport from Med), moves sub to sea zone southwest of sea zone 8, making US2 retake of London impossible. If Russia did NOT fly fighters to London, the ONLY real risky part of this battle is the E. Canada attack, which is fairly favorable.
Now, in a regular dice game, Germany just can’t try all this stuff. The dice break down with 6 LRA tech dice, or with the UK AA gun , or with the invasion of London, or with the E. Canada attack which would allow UK to retake London with high degree of success (allowing a 9 unit stack max with US reinforcements on US1 and Russian reinforcements on R2, as opposed to a 6 unit stack max following a US retake) or with the G2 retake of London. It’s a house of cards that just explodes when you fart on it.
(edit/)
What’s the difference between a 100%, 90%, 66%, 100% independent outcome series for a lock, and a 65%, 85%, 50%, 85% independent outcome series for a lock? Well, under the first, you have 60% lock, under the second, you have 23% lock. THAT is the difference between Low Luck and ADS. Something that’s SMART under Low Luck is RETARDED under ADS. (Note - these are not corresponding to the probabilities of G1 LRA Sealion; I’d compute the values more precisely if I were writing an ARTICLE omgomgomg)
And vice versa.
If you are playing Low Luck instead of ADS, you would be retarded NOT to take advantage of the more controllable outcomes. Logically, you would play VERY DIFFERENTLY under Low Luck than you would with ADS.
So if you don’t do the same thing under ADS that you do under Low Luck, and you don’t do the same thing under Low Luck that you do with ADS, then HOW is it that a strategy system that works under one can be said to work for the other? My answer that it is only possible in a world of crack.
a WORLD. of CRACK.
(/edit)