Leningrad assault ( Karelia G1 )

“Leningrad assault”

LOW LUCK STRAT

German goals:

1. G1 must take and hold Karelia trough the whole turn:
   Have 2 ground units surviving Karelia assault, reinforce it with 2 tanks of Poland in non-combat, ending with 1 inf, 1 art, 2 tank. Sacrifice fighters if you must. This ensure Russia can’t retake it round 1.

2. G1 Egypt must fall or Sea zone 12 must be cleared:
   This is to ensure the Italian fleet will not be sunk ( as well as other obvious economic reasons )

3. UK 1 must not be able to land troops in occupied Karelia:
   This is done by either sinking UK BB or using G BC to block sea zone 3, foregoing the extra shore bombardment.

The moves:

Assault on Leningrad

• Take Karelia ( 3 infantry, 1 artillery, 3 fighters , cruiser/transport ( 93% to hold it with 2.8 unit not counting AA))
• Reinforce Karelia: Non combat, 2 tanks from Poland to Karelia. This non-combat move is the twist here.

Eastern front assault:

• Take and Hold Baltic States ( 2 inf, 3 tanks )
• Take and Hold East Poland ( 1tank, 2 inf, 1 art )
• Take Ukraine ( 3inf, 1 art)
    Optionally, can forego Ukraine and 5 ipc NO. This ensure Stronger ratio in forces around Karelia as you can adjust forces in BS and EP.

Atlantic sea/Egypt:

• A) Sink UK battleship + transport ( 2 sub, 1 fighter ) to hold on Norway/Finland and prevent landing of UK1 forces in Karelia. Send Bomber and everything that can reach Egypt to take it G1. This is the preferred move.
  OR
• B) Sink UK BC and destroyer (2 subs, 1 fighter ). Bomber should be sent against sea zone 6 DD with the Baltic sub to open the way for Baltic BC. However, this means in all cases that German Baltic cruiser will need to move in non combat to block sea zone 3 and won’t be able to help in Karelia assault. It also need to survive vs the Russian sub. It’s risky business

Holding the north.
Either maintain Baltic fleet or Build an IC in Finland. This is Highly based on which option you went with A or B for the Atlantic scenario.
Prefered buys:
A - 1 AC, 1 fighter, 1 inf and 1 art   ( My preferred option )
A - All in: 2 IC ( Finland / Norway)
B - IC ( France ) 1AA, 2inf, 1 art ( 1 aa, 1 fighter, 5 inf should be defending France )
B - Tank dash: 5 tanks, 3 inf

Strat overview:
Plus: - Karelia is hold on G1, Germany achieves 2 NOs
      - Depending of buys, Russia has to fall back as far as Moscow, deadzoning Archangel
      - Russia can’t devote forces to reinforce India, which makes J2 easy
Minus: - The Luftwaffe pays a heavy toll ( 2 to 3 fighters loss )
         - Small chances for the assault to go wrong, but relatively none with low luck.
         - Italian fleet is threatened by 1 bc, 1 des and 1 bomber attack.

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DICES STRAT

Disclaimer: Not really a whole turn strat, added for close minded players that don’t see the whole turn so it’s preferable to leave other battles out as they can’t make the difference. So It only covers the 3 important battles and forego everything else in an attempt to get closer 100% odds. Good players will know how to divert their forces on other theaters/objectives and accept some risks

Eastern front assault:

• Take and Hold Baltic States ( 4 inf, 1 art, 4 tanks ) = 100% odds

Atlantic sea:

• A) Sink UK battleship + transport ( 2 sub, 1 fighter ) to hold on Norway/Finland and prevent landing of UK1 forces in Karelia. = 85% odds

Assault on Leningrad

• Take Karelia ( 3 infantry, 1 artillery, 3 fighters , 1 bomber, cruiser/transport = ( 93% to hold it with 2.8 units left)
• Reinforce Karelia: Non combat, 2 tanks from Poland to Karelia. This non-combat move is the twist here as it gives you 4 units to defend Karelia versus Russia.

Unrealistic calculation for success of all 3 battles would be around 80%.

I’m describing here my optimum assault G1 on Karelia and having the best chances to holding it, not saying it’s 100% sure or the best strat to use if you are a conservative player.

Now, your 44% stat chances is way off.

You list Baltic States, Eastern Poland, Ukraine as the crucial fights. ( when they are not so and when I already specifically mentioned you can forego Ukraine )

The key fights as far as holding Karelia is concerned is the attack on Karelia and sinking the UK BB/TR that are in range to drop. I even offer a second option where you can avoid the fight altogether. Other theaters of war are just that, the fact I adress them does not change anything to holding Karelia itself ( which is the main goal here )

I also find the way you calculate odds by multiplying each separate battle % a bit dubious.
I prefer to say the key battles are at 79.82% for Karelia and 84% to sink UK BB. Which are good odds imho.  :wink:

One thing that needs to be adressed, I do strats based on low luck. Everyone does that. I am well aware of the dices vs low luck debate, and I will even tell you I prefer dices. Reality is, most players plays low luck.

Now, one must be cautious when throwing %odds like you did. With low luck, an attack with 1 sub, 1 bomber and 1 fighter on the UK BB/TR is at 94% chances of success when in practice it is litterally 100% odds to win with anywhere between 1 to 3 units left.

Also, If I was to stretch this debate, I could overlook everything else in the strat outside of holding Karelia. With low luck in mind :

• 3 subs at the destroyer in sea zone 2,  100% sure. move BC to block z3
• 4 tanks, 4 inf, 1art at Baltic States    100% sure
• 4 jets, 1 bomber, 3inf/1 art to karelia  100% sure to end with at least 2 units ( 95%  up to 5 units ).

Now that’s 100% chances… Not saying I would do it, but to demonstrates % can lie and if you don’t want to take any initial risk in your moves, it’s doable.

Imho, when you do an axis turn with dices, you will have to risk that at least one opening move go wrong anyways. With dices, 100% does not exist and many games can end first round with a couple of snake eyes (1). With low luck, as I demonstrated, the odds you depicted are a good % higher if not litterally 100% sure.

Bids and dices are something out of the context of this strat.

This strat does what it says, take and hold Karelia. Nothing more, nothing less.
It does not pretend to be the best opening move
It does not pretend to be 100% sure with dices
It does not factor in bids which is completely random.
It is flexible, nothing prevent you from diverting ressources from other theaters to achieve what you consider more favorable ‘‘dices’’ odds in Karelia if you must have it 100%. I figure 80% odds for that fight is good enough for myself.

Veqryn, of course if there is a bid and Karelia is reinforced, I would hope a player is intelligent enough to not use this.

I would also hope a player will conduct the UK BB/TR fight before the Karelia fight, so he knows if he is better to only do a strafe or go the whole way in Karelia.

Now with all due respect, please, I am still willing to debate within the low luck context, NOs and no tech. But certainly don’t want to continue debating low luck vs dices or bids/ no bids. No offense meant.

Twigley, I did not adress round 2 but that’s why i recommend a buy of an AC + fighter, 1 inf/1art for German round 1 as my prefered option.

This ensures Baltic fleet survives.

Try it this way on round 2, reinforce Karelia with transport and buy 2 fighters, 9 inf and 1 transport. You should have 54 ipcs. I’d say 4-5 fighters (Italy helps), 6 tanks, and 2inf/2art can hold Karelia without serious losses.

IF you aren’t prepare to reinforce Karelia, On G2, it’s still imperative to block UK drop in Karelia. A cheap trick for German to keep UK fleet at bay round 2 is simply moving the BC in sea zone 3. ( UK will still be able to land in friendly Archangel but they can’t directly attack Karelia that round )

Don’t forget Japan( round 3) and Italy, they can send troops / fighters to help.