The last two games I played (w/o NO, no tech), Germany was able to take Moscow on Turn 3.
G1:
Purchase: 6 tanks
Combat:
Attack Egypt with Bomber
Clear British fleet except BB and Transport in SZ 2
Take Ukraine with 3 inf, 4 tanks, rt
Take East Poland with 3 inf, 2 tanks, rt
Take Baltic States with 2 inf, rt, CA shot, fighter
NCM:
Move 1 inf from Finland to Norway
After G1, the Germans will be poised against Caucasus. Finland will be open to attack from Karelia. Baltic States will be open to attack from Karelia. If the Russians decide to go on the offensive out of Karelia, then that’s what you want.
I1:
Purchase: 1 inf, Transport, Take Egypt or Trans Jordan
G2: Swing back north. Re-take Baltic States (if captured on R1) with 6 tanks, fighters, 1 inf from EPL. Take Belorussia with 6 tanks, all remaining troops in EPL. NCM all fighters to Poland.
After G2, the Germans have 12 tanks + all surviving fighters + bomber + 1-2 inf/rt positioned against Moscow.
At this point the Russians are in a difficult position. If they went on the offensive out of Karelia on R1, then those forces have either been destroyed in Baltic States or are out of position in Finland. They must fortify Moscow but also have to defend against the Italians in the Caucasus. The Italians have 2 transport, 2 CA shots, 1 BB shot, + fighter threatening southern Russia.
Of course there are various things that can happen in between G1 and G3 that can throw things off track. For example, Russia might pull troops out of Karelia on R1. The British or US might send planes into Moscow. Also even if all things go as planned, Germany still has to have decent dice rolls. This is mostly an early gamble.