Serious Game Flaw

@axis_roll:

@U-505:

And I think you’re right about Italy and Africa. To this day, I steadfastly maintain that Germany not bringing the bomber to attack Egypt is a HUMONGOUS error. And not attacking Egypt is even worse. In either case, it gives the Allies far too good of a chance to quickly eliminate Italy’s access to Africa’s income when the Italian fleet goes to the bottom of the Med if the UK makes the UK1 bomber build.

If the allies don’t take proper advantage of no attack on Egypt round1, then it’s ok not to attack it G1.  Most allied players know the importance of that territory.  I like an IC there if not attacked.

And you can’t count on poor play from your opponent……

I never count on poor play from my opponents. That’s a recipe for disaster.

Most everybody I know who saw an untouched Egypt when UK’s turn rolled around would jump on that advantage and ride it into the ground. As the Allies, I’d even be inclined to make an initial push with Russia into Persia just for added support and then retreat them once I felt that the UK could hold it’s own. I usually go into Persia with Russian troops on R1 anyway but, in this case, it would probably be more than just the 2 infantry I normally put there.

If I knew that my Allied opponent wouldn’t capitalize on Germany not attacking Egypt, then I wouldn’t attack Egypt because it really is a cost poor move on Germany’s part especially when you don’t bring the bomber. You don’t even benefit from it, per se. More to the point you are eliminating a liability by protecting the Italian fleet and position in Africa which is what makes it a “must” attack.

@axis_roll:

Nice posts Jen.

To see a <former?>strong advocate of the Germany Karelia 1 attack argue against it makes me think that Germany may be winning the battle, but not winning the war with that attack.

I think Egypt is more key to the Axis chances for a good strong start.</former?>

Before I was only looking at it from the economic side.  Economically speaking, the Karelian battle is in Germany’s favor.  However, what tips the scale to Russia is not the AA Gun, i could care less about the AA Gun, that thing never hits any of my fighters, it’s the fact Germany has absolutely nothing to back up the attack with.

You used the infantry in Finland.  The Transport is gunna get obliterated by England.  At best you have 2 infantry from Norway ready to attack Karelia again, but that’s not going to be enough.

Now a days, I’ve been putting up an IC in Bulgaria.  Helps me retain control of Ukraine and stop Russia from ever getting that 10 IPC NO of theirs.

And yes, Germany either has to send that bomber to Egypt in hopes of taking Egypt or send it to SZ 2 to sink the Battleship there. (Still attack Egypt though!  You only need to knock the defense value down to the point Italy can conquer it so you can negate the threat of a British IC garrisoned by 4 Infantry, Artillery, Armor, Fighter, Bomber in Egypt!)

@cymerdown:

@captainjack:

Again, I don’t advocate a G1 Karelia attack, but I just want to point out that it is possible to stop these two counterattacks as Germany.  On G1 if Germany sends two subs and a bomber to attack the BB and Transport, that would obviously prevent a UK liberation.  Also, when the dust settles from the Karelia attack, Germany SHOULD be left with and art, and can non-combat 2 tanks - which hopefully would fend off 4 inf and an armor.
Thanks.

Right, it’s just that the Italian navy is then in trouble on UK1.  If they lose that, they get relegated to 3 INF/turn status before they even had a chance to do anything.  But I understand your point was that those two things mentioned weren’t inevitable, strictly speaking.

Correct.  If Germany uses it’s bomber (along with the 2 subs) to attack the UK BB, and uses the Figs to attack Karelia instead of taking out the UK DD & CC off the coast of Algeria, then the Italian navy will sink to the bottom of the Med (I just love doing this as the UK - it’s so satisfying!)  I didn’t say it was good to attack Karelia, I just said that it was possible, and could PROBABLY be held - to Italy’s expense of course.

@Cmdr:

@captainjack:

@Cmdr:

As one who used to do it routinely, I can say there’s a few issues.

**1)  Russia can liberate it round 2.

2)  England can liberate it round 1.**

Again, I don’t advocate a G1 Karelia attack, but I just want to point out that it is possible to stop these two counterattacks as Germany.  On G1 if Germany sends two subs and a bomber to attack the BB and Transport, that would obviously prevent a UK liberation.  Also, when the dust settles from the Karelia attack, Germany SHOULD be left with and art, and can non-combat 2 tanks - which hopefully would fend off 4 inf and an armor.
Thanks.

Yes, Germany could sink the SZ 2 British Fleet and thus prevent England from liberating Karelia on UK 1.  But that has negatives i’m not entirely happy with either, namely, Egypt is almost certainly a loss instead of potentially cleared.  Yes, you could still win in Egypt with 2 Inf, Art, 2 Arm but the odds are much lower without the bomber.

Also, you cannot just “block” the British Battleship with your SZ 5 cruiser because there’s a good shot that the Russian Submarine can clear your cruiser before England’s turn.

As for liberating, I’ve seen Karelia get liberated too easily.  Yes, you should have 4 ground units (half of which are tanks) but that never seems to be enough, you know?

What do you mean “block”.  I said to send the German bomber and the two subs in SZ 7 to attack/kill/destroy/sink/blow-up the UK BB & Tranny.

Captain Jack:

I am assuming you use Bomber, Destroyer and Cruiser to attack SZ 14 (The British Fighter being killed by the German invasion of 2 Infantry, Artillery, 2 Armor but no Bomber) which happens about half the time.

The odds of that working is: 12% give or take.

If the fighter in Egypt is not destroyed (as happens the other half of the time) you will only sink the Italian fleet half the time (with the most likely result being a Battleship surviving and a very good chance one of the cruisers survive as well.)

Oh, and by “block” I mean prevent enemy movement from crossing through a sea zone.

If Germany has a Cruiser in SZ 6, then the British Battleship in SZ 3 cannot get to SZ 7 or SZ 5 in the combat move portion of England’s Round. (This assumes Germany has a cruiser in SZ 6 and that England has a Battleship in SZ 3 which is not how the game starts.)

The reason it cannot block is because Russia SHOULD attack the Cruiser with it’s submarine.  The Russian submarine has a 67% chance (according to Frood) to sink the enemy cruiser and a 67% chance of being sunk itself. (Based on 10,000 battles of Submarine vs Aircraft Carrier which defends at a three like a cruiser but cannot detect submarines.))

In the very likely event that the Russian submarine sinks the Cruiser in SZ 3, it is no longer present to “block” the British Battleship and Transport from Amphibiously assaulting Karelia to knock the defense stack down giving Russia better odds at liberation.

NOTE:  The Russian submarine is sacrificable.  It does not matter if it survives since Russia is almost certainly not going to have a GOOD use for it in the course of a game.

@Cmdr:

Captain Jack:

I am assuming you use Bomber, Destroyer and Cruiser to attack SZ 14 (The British Fighter being killed by the German invasion of 2 Infantry, Artillery, 2 Armor but no Bomber) which happens about half the time.

The odds of that working is: 12% give or take.

If the fighter in Egypt is not destroyed (as happens the other half of the time) you will only sink the Italian fleet half the time (with the most likely result being a Battleship surviving and a very good chance one of the cruisers survive as well.)

Oh, and by “block” I mean prevent enemy movement from crossing through a sea zone.

If Germany has a Cruiser in SZ 6, then the British Battleship in SZ 3 cannot get to SZ 7 or SZ 5 in the combat move portion of England’s Round. (This assumes Germany has a cruiser in SZ 6 and that England has a Battleship in SZ 3 which is not how the game starts.)

The reason it cannot block is because Russia SHOULD attack the Cruiser with it’s submarine.  The Russian submarine has a 67% chance (according to Frood) to sink the enemy cruiser and a 67% chance of being sunk itself. (Based on 10,000 battles of Submarine vs Aircraft Carrier which defends at a three like a cruiser but cannot detect submarines.))

In the very likely event that the Russian submarine sinks the Cruiser in SZ 3, it is no longer present to “block” the British Battleship and Transport from Amphibiously assaulting Karelia to knock the defense stack down giving Russia better odds at liberation.

NOTE:  The Russian submarine is sacrificable.  It does not matter if it survives since Russia is almost certainly not going to have a GOOD use for it in the course of a game.

Jen - Sorry - I had to read your post like 10 times before I understood what you were saying.  The reason I was confused was because when I attack Karelia on G1, I don’t attack Egypt because, like you said, the odds aren’t very good without the bomber (but I didn’t mention that in my post).  Sorry for the confusion - but we are actually on the same page now.  HaHa.

I would still attack Egypt even without the bomber.

2 Inf, Art, 2 Arm vs 2 Inf, Art, Arm, Fig might not be stellar odds, but you can still do enough damage to stop England from building an IC in Egypt and making Egypt impenetrable by Italy.

The chart below, from frood.net, helps explain your odds of winning without the bomber.  To me, the Egypt attack is a win if I can kill off the Armor defending there regardless of if I also get the fighter or not because that assures me that there is nothing England can do (assuming the transport in SZ 35 is sunk by Japan) to stop Italy from taking Egypt with normal dice.

Germany has a 57% chance of doing just that. (41% to kill everything, +16% to kill everything except the fighter = 57%.

Yea, it’s virtually 50/50, but Italy could take out 2 Infantry, Armor, Fighter with 3 Infantry, Armor, Fighter, Cruiser and Battleship as well even if Egypt has Artillery, Armor, Fighter left after Germany’s attack (2 Inf, Art, Arm, Fig total defense after England’s turn.)  And those odds are 20% better giving you 77% odds of “winning” the battle.

In other words, the idea is to hit Egypt hard enough to discourage England from putting up an IC there and to promote Italy’s chance of getting Egypt.

Attacker: 2 Inf, 1 Art, 2 Arm. v. Defender: 2 Inf, 1 Art, 1 Arm, 1 Fig. Link to or bookmark this scenario.

Average battle duration: 2.8 rounds of combat
  	avg. # units left 	IPC value 	Punch
Attacker:	0.74.3	3.316.7	1.99.1
Defender:	1.43.6	9.415.6	4.48.6
 	# Surviving Attackers
	# Surviving Defenders	#Casualties
Overall %*:	A. survives: 34.2% 	D. survives: 59.5% 	No one survives: 6.3%
* percentages may not total 100 due to rounding. The average results from above are highlighted in charts below, while the median result (equal odds of getting a worse or better result) is written in red.
Attacker results:
Probability	%	#	units	/ losses
  	0.3%	5: 	2 Inf, 1 Art, 2 Arm. 	no units. : 	0 IPCs
  	2.24%	4: 	1 Inf, 1 Art, 2 Arm. 	1 Inf. : 	3 IPCs
  	7.07%	3: 	1 Art, 2 Arm. 	2 Inf. : 	6 IPCs
  	12.25%	2: 	2 Arm. 	2 Inf, 1 Art. : 	10 IPCs
  	12.33%	1: 	1 Arm. 	2 Inf, 1 Art, 1 Arm. : 	15 IPCs
  	65.81%	0: 	no units. 	2 Inf, 1 Art, 2 Arm. : 	20 IPCs
Defender results:
Probability	%	#	units	/ losses
  	1.56%	5: 	2 Inf, 1 Art, 1 Arm, 1 Fig. 	no units. : 	0 IPCs
  	7.13%	4: 	1 Inf, 1 Art, 1 Arm, 1 Fig. 	1 Inf. : 	3 IPCs
  	15.33%	3: 	1 Art, 1 Arm, 1 Fig. 	2 Inf. : 	6 IPCs
  	19.44%	2: 	1 Arm, 1 Fig. 	2 Inf, 1 Art. : 	10 IPCs
  	16.06%	1: 	1 Fig. 	2 Inf, 1 Art, 1 Arm. : 	15 IPCs
  	40.48%	0: 	no units. 	2 Inf, 1 Art, 1 Arm, 1 Fig. : 	25 IPCs

I rolled 3 1’s on Germany’s fighters in the G1 Karelia attack once.  Nobody’s dared try it since.