I don’t see Italy taking Caucasus round 2. Not if Russia goes 5 Infantry, 3 Armor and puts at least one of those Armor in Caucasus
If Italy does buy a transport, then they are not amphibiously assaulting Round 1 and thus, they will not have 2 National Objectives, they might not even have 1, so that’s half of Italy’s paycheck right there. (23 IPC -1 for not taking Jordan, -2 for not taking Egypt, -10 for not getting National Obejectives.)
Sure, if England liberates it costs Russia 5 IPC for a round, but it’s better than allowing Germany a round to build and reinforce Karelia I think. It’s only for one round, after that, Russia can reinforce and build up in Karelia.
Yes, Russia can be spread thin too, but Russia has 3 building locations, it’s much harder to get spread thing than Germany who has one and it’s way back behind the scenes. Not to mention, Russia is not stretched thin immediately on round 2 like Germany is.
Spare IPC is a bad thing because you want to spend all your money on your round. Extra cash means units you could not buy which means you are weaker than you could potentially be. It’s not necessarily “bad” to have extra, but it could be “bad” if you don’t want the extra, you wanted the units. (If America saves up for two or three rounds in order to dump a fleet down, that’s not “bad” extra cash; if Germany physically cannot build enough units because of a limit in production, not cash, then that is “bad” extra cash.)
Thing is, Russia starts the game crippled, they won’t become crippled because of Germany’s first attack. If anything, Germany faces the dreaded “Cascading Dice Failure” while Russia can sit back and absorb all the hits Germany hits it with. This is because Russia really has nothing of great power to use Round 1 for attack, but they have a set of nicely stacked defenders to fight Germany round 1. Normally not enough to actually win, but strong enough that bad dice here or there could really screw up the game for Germany.
Germany, on the other hand, does not have that benefit. Even if Germany did absolutely nothing round 1, they still wouldn’t be able to set up a situation where Cascading Dice Failure could cost Russia the game, not in Rounds 1 and 2 at least, not like Russia.
13 Dead Russian Units does not tell the whole tale:
12 of those are Infantry (36 IPC)
1 of those is an Artillery (4 IPC)
Germany will lose (in the attack and counter attack)
4 Infantry >> 12 IPC
2 Artillery >> 8 IPC
2 Armor >> 10 IPC
2 Fighters >> 20 IPC
That’s 50 IPC, given normal dice results.
On top of that, Germany is out of position to push back and counter attack Russia’s counter attack.
Russia is on top of their Industrials, so they are in a prime position to dump reinforcements on the lines. In fact, Russia should have 2 rounds of reinforcements before Germany is in a position to push back again, and with a good possibility of getting their 10 IPC NO as well!
Dunno, Germany’s losing half their fighters and 30% of their armor in exchange for 1 Artillery. That’s not a good trade, IMHO. (I’m not counting infantry for either side, I don’t view them as “attacking” units. They’re fodder and defensive units. Artillery, Armor, Fighter and Bombers are attacking units.)