If Russia puts 4 INF on Caucuses in R1, and amphib is out.
What I wrote abvoe was for a single INF left in Caucuses.
Also, that does NOT preclude an Egypt attack, expecially with ANY bid to Africa. Skip the DD in SZ15 and jsut use Balkans FIG, 2 INF and 1 ARM from Libya. Still a 70% clear and 60% win. And if the Ukraine FIG is still alive for the battle it is an 89% win.