Nit picky German Economizer

Germany starts off pretty lean with infantry so between reinforcing Western from the Allies and the 5 inf in Norway you probably won’t have enough units to keep Russia from advancing heavily into Ukraine or at the very least Belorussia. You’ll most likely be able to make them retreat the following turn but you’ll be losing that income for a turn and Russia will only have to trade 2 territories on their turn so they won’t have to use offensive ground units to trade a third territory on R2.

@U-505:

Germany starts off pretty lean with infantry so between reinforcing Western from the Allies and the 5 inf in Norway you probably won’t have enough units to keep Russia from advancing heavily into Ukraine or at the very least Belorussia. You’ll most likely be able to make them retreat the following turn but you’ll be losing that income for a turn and Russia will only have to trade 2 territories on their turn so they won’t have to use offensive ground units to trade a third territory on R2.

But it IS possible to have 5 infantry in Norway on G2. :P

I never said it was recommended or even a moderately good move.  I just said it was possible, and a way to prevent Russia from blitzing Norway. Actually, it might even be enough to keep England from attacking Norway.

Well, that’s the dilemma. If you leave too few units the UK can destroy them and if you leave too many you’re giving Russia an opportunity.

I usually leave it empty just because I don’t want to leave those units exposed and they are more needed elsewhere. Despite being only a couple territories away from Germany, Norway is just too isolated to defend properly.

Actually, I think with no ground forces Norway is pretty well defended as it is.

England has to attack the German fleet in SZ 5 if they want to land in Norway on Round 1.  If you built a carrier, that’s end of that plan right then.  If you are like me and did not, then Germany has a VERY good chance of killing 1, 2 or all 3 British aircraft if they go with the OOL of Sub, Sub, Trn, Destroyer.

If England does NOT attack SZ 5 and tries to land in Norway (can only be done from SZs 3 or 6 on UK 1) then Germany with their fighters in W. Europe can hit SZ 3 hard with fleet for fodder so as to minimize the chance of losing fighters.

What does that mean?  England usually does not attack Norway on round 1. :P

@Cmdr:

If England does NOT attack SZ 5 and tries to land in Norway (can only be done from SZs 3 or 6 on UK 1) then Germany with their fighters in W. Europe can hit SZ 3 hard with fleet for fodder so as to minimize the chance of losing fighters.

What does that mean?  England usually does not attack Norway on round 1. :P

Unless the UK lands in Norway from sz3 and builds a DD in sz6. That leaves them more than enough income to add aircraft, a CV, or subs to help clear out the baltic next turn.

Yea, but now you build a DD (12 IPC) + a CV (16 IPC) leaving you 2 IPC left which isn’t even enough to purchase a single infantry unit.

So you landed in Norway and probably lost a destroyer in SZ 6, cause what the heck, I have nothing to lose in killing it now! I can reasonably expect 2 Fighters, Bomber, Battleship, 2 Transports and a Carrier to attack me in SZ 5.

And, you have nothing to land on UK 2 because you spent everything on Navy.

Dunno if it’s a good option or not.  Just saying from where I sit, and untested by me personally, I’m not thinking CV + DD build just to land all my available units in Norway and have nothing left to move on UK 2 is a good move.

Better would be an assault on Karelia or Algeria.  IMHO

I actually invite the Ukraine attack now.  It costs Russia more in the long run then Germany, I think.  I used to bid units there to make it too costly to attack and keep my fighter.  But I don’t anymore.

Anyway, if you invade Norway on UK 1 with BB, DD, AC, 2 TRN, 2 FIG Germany can, and i think should, attack with 2 SS, DD, TRN, 4 FIG, BMB.

According to Frood you wipe out the British fleet with a bomber, fighter left.  Replacing fighters for Germany is much easier then for England and you have, in essence, just eliminated England as a threat to the Germans for multiple rounds.

Why?  Because they have to protect transports with something!  That means buying a capitol ship, replacing fighters, and replacing transports.  Germany has to replace 3 fighters, which they can do at a rate of one a round or faster if they want too.  Meanwhile, the west can be protected half has hard since it is only America the Germans really need to worry about.  Maybe if England stays with the American navy they can cut costs, but even still, that means they can only invade from the north, leaving the south and Africa open for the Axis to leave lightly garrisoned.

I invite the attack on Ukraine because there is nothing I can do to stop it if Russia wants to do it.  Furthermore, the attack on Ukraine will cost Russia 3 armor one way or the other.  That’s 75% of their starting armor and half what they probably have after Round 1.  Sure, it cost me a tank and a plane, but so what?  I can recover that!

As for hitting SZ 5, again, as Germany, I welcome it!  I purposely don’t buy a carrier on Round 1 in most (not all) games in the hopes England attacks it on UK 1 and I knock down 1 to 3 British Fighters/Bomber!  Odd’s are tremendous to get all three, but I have a good chance at one or two!  And without those fighters to defend your fleet in SZ 3, I won’t need the German fleet for fodder, well, I will, but not as much.

I did not say there were tremendous odds to get all three.  I said there are very good odds to get one or two with a decent shot at all 3.

And if you put two infantry in Ukraine from a bid, you might scare Russia away. :(  I think it’s better to put them in Libya, then Egypt is more assured.

And yes, Russia and Germany lose the same number of IPCs in units in Ukraine from the attack and counter attack.  But Germany lost 6 Attack Punch, Russia loses 9 Attack punch.  Furthermore, which one starts with 6 fighters and 10 armor and which one starts with 2 fighters and 4 armor?

The bad thing of losing 1 FIG in Ukraine is that Germany has 1 less fig availbale in G1. This thing may create problems on G1. Sure Germany may buy other fig … after G1 combat move.

Yes, you are down a fighter if Ukraine is lost to Russia (which is not assured by any means mind you.)  And yes, you do keep 28 IPC in equipment if they don’t attack it.  But you also don’t kill 28 IPC in equipment!  Instead, Russia’s probably centralized in W. Russia which you almost certainly won’t be able to kill off.

As for SZ 5:

Project results for the attacker (3 rounds of combat)

No Units Left 26%
1 Bomber Left 28%
1 Bomber, 1 Fighter Left 33%
No Losses 15%

(May not add to 100% due to rounding.)

So you have a 1 in 4, approximately, chance of killing all 3 of England’s aircraft if they attack.  I know people who are afraid of the 1 in 6 chance of death to an AA Gun.

1 in 4.  Remember, you could attack round two with 1 transport, 1 destroyer vs fighter bomber and lose both in round 2. (Which is generally how I see England lose everything.  Most times I see them lose two fighters, but sometimes i see all go down in flames.)

Using my sim, I find that if UK is playing to preserve 1 air unit (Bomber), it has the following chances of lost units:

11.68% no units.
49.88% 1 Fig.
36.26% 2 Fig.
2.18% 2 Fig, 1 Bom.

There is a very slim (2%) chance of losing all your air units if you want to avoid that. However, the cost is that you have only a 55% chance of killing the whole baltic fleet.

If you want to fight to the death every time, you have about a 33% chance of losing all your air, and a 76% chance of killing the whole baltic fleet.

I got 26% chance of all air power lost if it was a battle to the death, on your simulator, Dan.

Still, in your list to maintain at least one aircraft, the Germans appear to have a 75% (or 3 out of 4 attempts) chance of killing two British fighters and, you stated that there was a 55% chance (close to 1 in 2) that the Germans will NOT be exterminated.

It just sounds more and more to me like my original impression that this is a bone headed maneuver was right.  Sure, it could pay off big, just like I always take a chance to attack a capitol if I have 60% odds, but it could really hurt (like if you fall in that 40%.)