@Jennifer:
I’d be tempted to blitz W. Russia forgoing a hit on the British navy. If I can knock out the Russian army with moderate losses I can recover before England can press the advantage of the free destroyer in the Med.
My initial thought was that the Belo/West Russia R1 attack is MORE suceptible to a German 1 counter in West Russia because Germany would have more/better attacking units left alive in Ukraine instead of Belorussia.
So I looked at the numbers on a dice sim, and when R1 you go with everything you can against West Russia (9 inf, 2 art, 4 tanks), the most likely outcome was 7 inf, 2 art, 4 tanks, happening >= 59% of the time. If on R1 you attack Ukraine, along with West Russia (9 inf, art, 2 tanks) has a most likely outcome of 7 inf, art, 2 tanks, happening >= 45% of the time.
Turning around and attacking West Russia on G1:
When ukraine was not attacked R1:
3 inf, art, 3 tanks, 6 ftrs, bomber on 7 inf, 2 art, 4 tanks > 61% win chance, 4 units left
when belorussia was not attacked R1:
3 inf, tank, 5 ftrs, bomber on 7 inf, art, 2 tanks > 46% win chance, 4 Russian units left
So the odds are slightly BETTER for Germany to attack West Russia G1 if Russia does not hit ukraine R1.
DISCLAIMER:
This was a very rudimentary analysis, the number of units in these battles is small, so there can be a lot of variance, especially with the AA gun firing on defense against a G1 hit (either way).
Also, the odds of R1 “winning” either belorussia (3 inf, 2 ftr on 3 inf) or ukraine (3 inf, art, 2 tank, 2 ftr) are just about equal (3-4% diff), with about the same odds for a withdrawal of your two planes (15-18%)