• 2007 AAR League

    I’m getting more undecided on this issue all the time now…

  • '18 '17 '16 '11 Moderator

    Likewise, it is a loss of 3 Russian armor, not one in Ukraine.  You know Germany’s going to make it her mission to destroy those armor because Germany can afford replacement armor, Russia cannot.  At least not as readily.

    If I have the chance to reduce Russia’s offensive and defensive punch by 9 and lose some infantry to do it, I’ll do it.

    Meanwhile, if Russia hits W. Russia and Belorussia, you’ll get 1 or 2 tanks if you counter attack and you’ll sustain some losses to get it.  Russia’s already recovered that with a 3 inf, 3 arm purchase, maybe surpassed it with a 3 inf, arm, fig purchase.

  • 2007 AAR League

    Germany is in some ways more strapped for units than Russia - Germany has to defend against allied landings in WE, SE, Ger and EE, while also sending some units to Africa, - that often doesn’t leave much for the attack on Moscow, and Russia may actually be able to out-produce Germany on the Russian front even with lower income than Germany. Japan can offset that by similarly distracting Russia on the Eastern front.

    So I honestly don’t know between the two who can afford to trade units. It depends on the game I guess. If the allies have stayed out of the Med, and the Baltic fleet is still there or the Allied fleet is not in range of it b/c they are landing via Z4 into Arc / Kar, then Germany can more easily afford to trade units with Russia. But if the UK/US are threatening major landings in Europe, you need to hunker down eventually.

    Ukraine G1 / R1 happens before the Allied landings become a real possibility though, so that doesn’t help.

  • '18 '17 '16 '11 Moderator

    Germany’s got a pretty free reign for 3 or 4 turns before they have to worry about landings in E. Europe, W. Europe or S. Europe. (Obviously England could hit W. Europe on UK 1, but what British player is outfitted for that and what German player doesn’t have a few infantry and a couple fighters there to defend it?)

    Russia doesn’t have that luxury.  From Russia 1, Russia’s got to worry about probes in SFE, Buryatia, Karelia, Archangelsk, W. Russia, Ukraine and Caucasus.

  • 2007 AAR League

    I just think that Germany has to save units for those “rainy days” after round 4 or so. If you only start then, it’s too late.

  • '18 '17 '16 '11 Moderator

    On the flip side, I’ve taken Moscow on Turn 5 with Germany.

  • 2007 AAR League

    To me, that’s like going for checkmate in three moves. It CAN work, but you have to count on your opponent to make some dumb moves and not see it coming.

    If you are playing a skilled opponent, you CANNOT capture Russia in five turns. At least, I don’t think so.

  • '18 '17 '16 '11 Moderator

    unless the dice gods bless you. =)


  • Mmm… I have seen several games lost by Axis because after Moscow fall, in the following turn also Germany fall.
    Russia is a short term strategy Country in my opinion. 4-5 turns. Russia have to do the greater damage possible to the German army. Greater the losses on the Russian front greaters the problem that German have to face.
    UK/US have to come in help before is too late or, otherwise, Russia and her allies are doomed.
    Conservative play or aggressive play when Japan arrive to threaten Moscow and Germany advance on the Eastern front Red Army is in a very bad situation.
    So why take care of tanks? The best use for them is to destroy German infantry. They went destroyed in the process? What a pity, meanwhile, Germany have to stack Europe, and any less infantry is one less problem for Russia.

  • '18 '17 '16 '11 Moderator

    BTW, if you send both fighters to Ukraine, how do you take W. Russia?  And if you take W. Russia and Ukraine, are not all of your armor now vulnerable?


  • The idea is:

    Ukraine: attack with 3 inf, 1 art, 2 tank, 2 fig
    West russia: 9 inf, 1 art, 2 tank

    leaving only 3 inf in bielorussia and having buyed 3 inf and 3 tank, I do not think that German may attack West RUssia.
    Ukraina is only a trading territory.

    The idea is not mine, but of Axis_roll, an I like it very much!

  • '18 '17 '16 '11 Moderator

    I’d be tempted to blitz W. Russia forgoing a hit on the British navy.  If I can knock out the Russian army with moderate losses I can recover before England can press the advantage of the free destroyer in the Med.


  • @Jennifer:

    I’d be tempted to blitz W. Russia forgoing a hit on the British navy.  If I can knock out the Russian army with moderate losses I can recover before England can press the advantage of the free destroyer in the Med.

    My initial thought was that the Belo/West Russia R1 attack is MORE suceptible to a German 1 counter in West Russia because Germany would have more/better attacking units left alive in Ukraine instead of Belorussia.

    So I looked at the numbers on a dice sim, and when R1 you go with everything you can against West Russia (9 inf, 2 art, 4 tanks), the most likely outcome was 7 inf, 2 art, 4 tanks, happening >= 59% of the time.  If on R1 you attack Ukraine, along with West Russia (9 inf, art, 2 tanks) has a most likely outcome of 7 inf, art, 2 tanks, happening >= 45% of the time.

    Turning around and attacking West Russia on G1:
    When ukraine was not attacked R1:
    3 inf, art, 3 tanks, 6 ftrs, bomber on 7 inf, 2 art, 4 tanks > 61% win chance, 4 units left

    when belorussia was not attacked R1:
    3 inf, tank, 5 ftrs, bomber on 7 inf, art, 2 tanks > 46% win chance, 4 Russian units left

    So the odds are slightly BETTER  for Germany to attack West Russia G1 if Russia does not hit ukraine R1.

    DISCLAIMER:
    This was a very rudimentary analysis, the number of units in these battles is small, so there can be a lot of variance, especially with the AA gun firing on defense against a G1 hit (either way).

    Also, the odds of R1 “winning” either belorussia  (3 inf, 2 ftr on 3 inf) or ukraine (3 inf, art, 2 tank, 2 ftr) are just about equal (3-4% diff), with about the same odds for a withdrawal of your two planes (15-18%)


  • I made the evaluation basing on my game experience.
    Hitting only WR had as answer German counterattack to WR, having 6 inf to cover the attacking panzers (3 inf from Ukraine and 3 inf from Belorussia). After a round of strafing German army may retreat to Belorussia or Ukraine, and then reinforce with inf (from EE and BAL) and fig.
    So I have switched my Russia opening to attack two territories: WR for sure and UKR or Belorussia.
    Belorussia attack do not hurt Germany as the Ukraine attack.
    The way to attack Ukraine may be 3 inf, 1 art, 2 tank 2 fig, which allows for taking Ukraine with 1 or 2 tanks left. The stack in WR is pretty safe, Germany have only 3 inf in Belorussia to cover the attack and even if her strafe WR retreating in Belorussia the army is without covering infantry, because German may send only 2 inf from EE. This without considering that German should re-conquer Ukraine.
    The only way for German to hit efficiently WR is having both Belorussia and Ukraine inf.
    Spoiling Germany of those inf is a must for Russia IMHO.
    The alternative to conquer, Belorussia or Ukraine, is to strafe it, stripping away the inf. Those panzer is going nowhere without infantry covering.
    So why I prefer attack Ukraine? Flexibility is the answer.
    I attack Ukraine with 3 inf, 1 art, 3 tank, 2 fig, and W with 9 inf, 1 art, 1 tank. Buying is 3 inf and 3 tank or maybe 5 inf 1 art 1 tank.
    If my attack in WR is going very well (say 1 or 2 inf loss WR taken with 7 inf, 1 art, 1 tank) I may choose to only strafe Ukraine, depending also on the losses in the first round. So I keep the German with less infantries and preserve my tank force.
    If attack in WR is going bad (more than 3 losses so only 6-5 inf left) I definitely go in Ukraine for conquer it. So I destroy more German units, gain 3 more IPC, and are still able to keep German away from Caucasus in the first two rounds, trading Ukraine.
    Considering German counter at this point, the best thing for her is trading Ukraine. Moving en masse there without inf and without fig coverage it is not healthy.
    Attacking Belorussia there is not such flexibility. You have to go for conquer it. German forces in Ukraine stay intact. If WR attack goes bad German has still the opportunity to strafe Red Army in WR, or moving en masse in Ukraine, or even trying to take Caucasus.
    Then, naturally Russia may counter trading Caucasus, but it is better to trading Ukraine then Caucasus IMHO.

  • 2007 AAR League

    Good points. What to do, what to do???


  • It is one of the thing I love of A&A…. what to do!  :-D
    I mean: I like games that are various and umpredictable and that needs a lot of thinking… A&A!!!  :roll:

  • '18 '17 '16 '11 Moderator

    I think the option to hit W. Russia and Belorussia has less to do with holding W. Russia (which you could do, if you really wanted too) and more to do with maximizing damage done to Germany to damage done to Russia.

    Can Germany reclaim?  As you said, odds are they can have 4 armor surviving in W. Russia.  Congratulations.  I am now killing those 4 armor and losing 2-4 infantry.  Good trade.  Meanwhile, Germany is now at a severe disadvantage as they have almost no panzer corps left to use as valuable combat punch to defend their infantry stacks.

    So the question is, if you attack W. Russia and Belorussia, will Germany risk a massive blow to their own army to do some damage to Russia’s army?  Or will Germany hold back, reclaim Belorussia, take Karelia, and build up forces at twice the pace of the Russians until they can more readily move in and take Russia?


  • If attack in WR goes bad (I mean losing more than 2 inf, one time I loses 5 inf!) Germany may try to strafe WR (not to conquer it) or may try to adance in Ukraine covering the army with fig and threatening Caucasus from G2 on.
    With Ukraine in Russia hands this is very difficult to happen.
    Moreover, I am convinced that attacking Ukraine gives more flexibility to Russia (you may resolve WR attack first and then decide if going heavy in Ukraine or only strafing it for 1 round). Belorussia on the other hand is a do or die attack.
    I think that in A&A having more choices is a value. For this reason I prefer to attack Ukraine.


  • @Jennifer:

    I think the option to hit W. Russia and Belorussia has less to do with holding W. Russia (which you could do, if you really wanted too) and more to do with maximizing damage done to Germany to damage done to Russia.

    Doesn’t attacking and killing 3 inf, art, tank and ftr in ukraine equal maximizing damage to Germany?
    I certainly wouldn’t call trading 3 inf for 3 inf (belorussia) as maximizing damage done to Germany.

    @Jennifer:

    Can Germany reclaim?  As you said, odds are they can have 4 armor surviving in W. Russia.  Congratulations.  I am now killing those 4 armor and losing 2-4 infantry.  Good trade.  Meanwhile, Germany is now at a severe disadvantage as they have almost no panzer corps left to use as valuable combat punch to defend their infantry stacks.

    So the question is, if you attack W. Russia and Belorussia, will Germany risk a massive blow to their own army to do some damage to Russia’s army?  Or will Germany hold back, reclaim Belorussia, take Karelia, and build up forces at twice the pace of the Russians until they can more readily move in and take Russia?

    Am I missing something or did you just argue AGAINST Russia hitting belorussia and west russia round 1?

  • 2007 AAR League

    @axis_roll:

    Turning around and attacking West Russia on G1:
    When ukraine was not attacked R1:
    3 inf, art, 3 tanks, 6 ftrs, bomber on 7 inf, 2 art, 4 tanks > 61% win chance, 4 units left

    when belorussia was not attacked R1:
    3 inf, tank, 5 ftrs, bomber on 7 inf, art, 2 tanks > 46% win chance, 4 Russian units left

    So the odds are slightly BETTER  for Germany to attack West Russia G1 if Russia does not hit ukraine R1.

    DISCLAIMER:
    This was a very rudimentary analysis, the number of units in these battles is small, so there can be a lot of variance, especially with the AA gun firing on defense against a G1 hit (either way).

    There is one flaw in your scenario - you have Germany committing all of its airpower to attacking WR on G1. That means ignoring or under-powering the Egypt attack, leaving the UK BB alone, and not hitting Karelia, and Belo/Ukraine (whichever Russia took) with any air.

    That’s a lot of battles to completely deprive of air support, esp. when committing all possible ground units to WR as well.

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