@SuperbattleshipYamato It’s a bit of an odd scenario because of how Out-of-Character Japan would need to act in this scenario. Basically, you’re describing a Japan that both abandons its 1905 Alliance with Britain but also does not take an aggressive pro-colonization stance towards China while also rewriting Japan’s history of having a racial-supremacist worldview regarding themselves. All of this while the situation in the rest of the world ~1931-45 does not change at all.
But, for fun, let’s try to imagine how this would play out, assuming Japan has virtually no allies other than hypothetically joining the anti-comintern pact as Japan’s dislike of Communism remains in-play here.
~1912/5 - Point of Divergence #1 - In back-to-back and completely inexplicable flukes, the Rikken Kokumintō, rather than the Rikken Seiyūkai win the Japanese parliamentary elections twice in a row despite being severe underdogs. Japan is set on a path of closer cooperation with western (i.e. “Classical Liberalism”) sentiments/values/etc. Their participation in WW1 as Britain’s ally in unchanged.
~1918 - Japan assists in the broader Allied intervention in the Russian Civil War.
~1918/9 - Entente Powers refuse to sign the “Racial Equality Proposal”. Increased Japanese-UK/US tension ensues and the Japanese government is emboldened to take a more anti-western stance. However, in this case, the rallying cry is “Japan must disband all colonies everywhere in Asia to defeat the west” rather than “Japan must have its own colonies in Asia to achieve parity with the west”
~1919 - Point of Divergence #2 - As a result of the above, Japan finds itself relatively isolated diplomatically. The “21 Demands” are never issued to China. Rather, Japan agrees to pull out of China (abandoning the German colonies it gained during WW1), finance the Republic of China’s government and open the door to negotiate the future return of Taiwan and other nearby islands in exchange for a better trade deal, a minor adjustment of the border between Japanese Korea and Manchuria, and a formal military/political alliance. (NOTE: This is completely insane and would probably never have happened, even with a more moderate Japanese government).
This replaces the real-life “Sino-Japanese Joint Defence Agreement”, which was a blatantly more pro-Japanese treaty signed between Japan and the ROC in 1918. Said treaty, because it involved China ceding more land to Japan (after the previous disaster of the 1st Sino-Japanese war), resulted in the toppling of the ROC government of its time (“Beiyang government”), which greatly accelerated the splintering of the already fragile ROC into the various Warlord States Japan tried picking off one-by-one IRL. However, in this situation, Japan is actively returning Chinese land to China and establishing a more equal relationship between the two countries, so the Chinese government of the day persists.
Additionally, the “May 4th Movement” never occurs in China, which delays the creation/spread of the Chinese Communist Party. This will be important later.
This change, along with Japan and China’s joint attempt at passing through the Racial Equality Proposal described above, results in dramatically improved Japanese-Chinese relations from the 1920s-onwards.
~1922 - UK-Japan alliance terminated due to post-WW1 sentiment + UK drifting further into USA’s sphere of influence on a global scale. This is seen as a betrayal by Japan.
~1922 - The last Japanese troops leave Siberia. The Russian Civil War eventually results in a Communist Victory. The failure of the former Entente to prevent the spread of Communism increases anti-western sentiment in Japan.
~1924 - US bars Asians from immigrating to America. Japanese-American relations continue to deteriorate. Pro-Asian, Anti-Western sentiments continue to resonate in Japan, as even the militarists are now OK with the notion of a Japanese-Chinese relationship to topple the western colonies.
~1926 - Point of Divergence #3 - Chiang Kai-shek’s Northern Expedition fails for the following reasons:
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The May 4th Movement never occurred, meaning the Beiyang government still maintained popular support and thus the KMT would have less momentum.
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Japan would be actively allied to and financing the existing ROC government, and would thus be able to bring the Manchurian Warlords (The “Fengtian clique”, which historically opposed the KMT during the Northern Expedition) into closer cooperation with the Beiyang government while also providing military aid.
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Before the Northern Expedition’s success, the Beiyang government was the internationally recognized government of China. Thus, beyond sporadic support from the still-young USSR, the KMT would have no international support to counter Japan’s support of the Beiyang government.
With this, the CCP, which was aligned with the KMT at this point, is also defeated, although fringe elements remain throughout Chinese society with Soviet backing. Political stability returns to China.
~1929 - The Great Depression begins, crippling the economies of many countries. Japan and China, however, are not greatly impacted. In this scenario, this puts both countries at an advantage relative to the western powers, as the west will be effectively paralyzed for almost 10 years.
~Early-1930s - Point of Divergence #4 - Japan’s nationalistic philosophy, “kokutai” gains traction as it did in real life. In this scenario, however, its aims are drastically different. Japan still views itself as a unique/divinely protected race of people, but the previous ~15 years of pro-liberal/pro-Asian rule results in a shift in objectives from blatant aggression/colonization to isolationism via the destruction of any foreign nation seen as a threat to Japan (i.e. the colony-possessing western nations. Specifically America (Philippines, Haiwaii), Britain (various), France (FIC) and the Netherlands (DEI)). A Japanese military buildup begins, focusing on the Navy.
~1934 - The USA finalizes its “Philippine Independence Act” - Promising to grant independence to the Philippines within 10 years. Japan here is already in a paranoid state and is thus distrustful of America’s intentions, and begins to infiltrate the Philippines with the intent of sowing discontent/drive for immediate independence. US-Japanese relations remain cold.
~1935 - Point of Divergence #5 - Italy invades Ethiopia. Japan and China (both still in the league of nations although both are growing disillusioned with the institution) join various other nations in opposing the move. The failure of the league to act further emboldens Japan and China against the west.
~1936 - Point of Divergence #6 - Nazi Germany offers Japan a spot in the Anti-Comintern Pact. Japan agrees on the condition that China (its ally in this scenario as described above) is also allowed in. Germany agrees (historically, the Nazis had a good relationship with China prior to Japan’s invasion).
~1938-39 - Germany and Italy begin acting aggressively in Europe. The other major powers’ (America/Britain/France/Netherlands) reaction is appeasement.
Everything from this point on is a massive divergence from real life events
Japan and China do not care as they are busy conducting their own buildups in Asia. China seeks to seize all European possessions in its territory (i.e. Hong Kong, Macau, etc.). Japan seeks to depose all Asian European Colonies outside of China.
Around this time, some equivalent of the “Battles of Khalkhin Gol” occur, with the USSR still winning due to superior technology to the Chinese/Japanese. Like IRL, this curbs Japanese/Chinese enthusiasm for fighting against the USSR later.
~Late 1939 - Germany invades Poland, starting WW2. Japan and China declare war on Britain and France in response to their declaration of war on Germany. Battles erupt in China, SEA and the DEI over the European colonies. The Netherlands enter the war early on the Allied side as Japan attacks the DEI. America is spared during the initial attack, but swiftly enacts a trade embargo on Japan and begins running pro-Allied intelligence operations out of the Philippines. This eliminates what little goodwill existed between Japan and America. Peace negotiations are privately carried out, but America’s demand that Japan and China unilaterally withdraw and restore the existing colonial borders is seen by Japan as unreasonable.
The China/Japan team make short work of the unprepared Europeans, similar to what happened IRL. However, as the North African campaign had barely begun at this point, and the “Phony War” was still in effect in Europe, the Western Allies are able to funnel somewhat competent expeditionary forces to the Pacific and station garrisons in India and Australia.
Within the first few weeks of the conflict, Japan is able to seize French Indochina and all of the Dutch East Indies, invade most of Burma (propping up an independent government whose citizens rally to the Japanese cause of liberation) and coerce Thailand (“Siam”) into joining the war on the Japanese/Chinese side. In the conquered areas, Japan quickly establishes independent countries based on Nationalities. This process proves time-consuming and does not quickly yield results, but it results in almost no foreign opposition to Japanese military occupation, and a steady stream of volunteer fighters to pad out the ranks of the Japanese Army.
China, to its credit, kicks the Europeans out of China effortlessly, as they have no way of supplying the area. This has the amusing effect of bringing Portugal into the war on the Allies’ side, despite the country being ruled by a pro-fascist government (Estado Novo). Portugal’s role in the war is minimal, as they were a minor power by this point historically. After seizing their border territories they send reinforcements into Southeast Asia to support Japan, although Chinese enthusiasm for the war at this point is low.
~1940 - France and the Netherlands are invaded by Germany. This eliminates any pockets of formal French/Dutch resistance in the Pacific, although existing troops in the area fall under the command of the British in the form of “Free” military divisions (similar to the Free French, Polish Government in Exile, etc.)
Japan’s war in Southeast Asia and the Pacific stalls out, as British-Indian loyalist forces establish a defensive line in western Burma/eastern India (modern-day Bangladesh) and ANZAC forces establish a defensive position in New Guinea. In both areas, Japan is faring better than they did historically due to their early attack combined with the promises of independence spurring on significant anti-western resistance.
However, at this point, America begins establishing Lend-Lease aid to Britain and its Dominions (Canada, Australia, etc.) in all theaters, including the Pacific. This proves to be the last straw for Japan, who launch attacks on both the Philippines and Hawaii in late-1940. America, however, was prepared for the attacks, and is able to evacuate most of their forces from the Philippines successfully. The islands still fall under Japanese rule, but the local population resists Japan’s attempts at imposing their version of a “democratic government” on a people who basically already had one.
As happened historically, Germany and Italy declare war on America in response to Japan’s attacks. America enters WW2 1 year early, although this does not amount to much at the moment.
NOTE: Due to the different nature of Japan’s government here, nothing resembling the “Imperial Rule Assistance Association” (Japan’s WW2 dictatorship) takes hold of the country during this scenario. Japan remains insistent that Japan, rather than the west, is fighting on the behalf of freedom/democracy/human rights/etc.
~1941 - Nazi Germany and its minor Axis Allies invade the Soviet Union. Japan and China are encouraged to participate, but refuse on the grounds that their forces are already tied down fighting the Allies in the Pacific.
Japan’s attempts at sowing discontent in Australia, New Zealand and Hawaii fail completely, as the local populations are too assimilated into their native cultures to rebel against their leadership. Similar attempts vis a vis India are working to an extent, but only with radical Hindu-Nationalist elements of the population (historically, the Muslim Indians actively supported the war effort, and India was already under a form of limited self-rule from the 1930s-onwards). Through careful mediation with the likes of Gandhi and other Indian leaders, Britain is able to retain a feeble hold on the subcontinent.
~1942-45 - WW2 plays out mostly the same from here, with some significant caveats:
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Japan consistently and constantly has the upper hand in the fighting in Southeast Asia/India, as it is able to concentrate the bulk of both its army and the Chinese army in the region. However, the geography of the Indian subcontinent and the logistical challenges faced by Japan as the naval war turns against it from 1942-onwards results in the British Raj barely being able to maintain control until the end of the war.
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China signs a separate peace with the Allies in ~1943 (around the time Italy loses and the USSR wins at Kursk, when it’s clear that the Axis are going to lose) whereby it withdraws support from fighting in SEA/India in exchange for being allowed to keep all the former European colonies in China. This enrages the Japanese, but the Chinese still offer material support.
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Japan either surrenders the war in ~1944 and agrees to give up its colonies (Korea/Taiwan/the former German Pacific Islands) in exchange for an American guarantee that its will help force the remaining Europeans to dismantle their Pacific colonies in a peaceful manner, or fights on to the bitter Atomic end in 1945.
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After the defeat of Germany, the USSR attempts an invasion of China. How well this would go is unclear, and could either result in the toppling of the ROC (and the establishment of the PRC) as happened IRL or could spiral out of control into the first conflict of the Cold War (similar to the Korean War).
And that’s about it. I don’t think Japan can get away with attacking the European colonizers in the Pacific without America getting dragged into the conflict one way or another. Japan was too paranoid (even in this highly contrived and unlikely scenario I couldn’t see a way to make them not attack) and USA under Roosevelt’s administration was too keen on propping up the British for such a thing to have been possible.
I guess alternatively you could have a hyper-isolationist USA that immediately gives independence to the Philippines and refuses to offer any help to the Allies, but that just turns into “Generic Axis Wins WW2 Scenario #387”, so I didn’t go down that road.
Post-WW2 I imagine Japan gets off way easier than they did IRL due to a lack of War Crimes, a lack of a Military Dictatorship, and the revelation that this Japan really did fight the war for the explicit purpose of dismantling the colonies. In modern times leftists would champion Japan as progressive heroes on the front lines of race relations or something. IDK.
