TGC (Allies) vs. SBY (German) VF test game #2

@SuperbattleshipYamato Ah! got it now.

Best I can come up with is this: I slowly went through everything and I believe the error is on my side - I’m pretty sure at least. I may have opened the wrong file or had the screen from my previous allied turn open and then clicked past the German turn you had taken? One thing that has also been difficult for me is that the first 13 characters of your save files are always identical (so the 10 characters I can see after downloading the file are indistinguishable from other turns unless I click in the file header). The way I store things makes it difficult to discern one file from another.

I’m going to pick this up from G8 and just refire the entire Turn 9. There will be no need to send the file back to you so I will execute the G9 as well and then the A10 and see where were at.

@SuperbattleshipYamato

A10 Final and end of game.tsvg

@SuperbattleshipYamato

okay, now I will go through this round by round and uncover what happened bc I am a bit surprised by this result. Let’s see where things went upside down for Germany…

@SuperbattleshipYamato

End of round 1, game aggregate dice results:

Allies: -11.53 actual, -13.66 low luck, +2 reinforcements
Axis: +1.06 actual, +0 low luck, +2 reinforcements

@SuperbattleshipYamato said in TGC (Allies) vs. SBY (German) VF test game #2:

@The_Good_Captain

Glad we figured it out. I’m sorry if my file naming system contributed to the confusion in some way.

No, it was definitely me. I even found the old file still open on my desktop. 100% my bad.

@SuperbattleshipYamato

End of round 2, game aggregate dice results:

Allies: -11.53 actual, -20 low luck, -4 reinforcements
Axis: -0.11 actual, -1.5 low luck, +3 reinforcements

@SuperbattleshipYamato

End of round 3, game aggregate dice results:

Allies: -9.53 actual, -18.5 low luck, +0 reinforcements
Axis: +0.64 actual, -0.66 low luck, +4 reinforcements

@SuperbattleshipYamato

End of round 4, game aggregate dice results:

Allies: -3.53 actual, -13.66 low luck, +3 reinforcements
Axis: +3.09 actual, +1.83 low luck, +2 reinforcements

@SuperbattleshipYamato

End of round 5, game aggregate dice results:

Allies: +0.71 actual, -10.16 low luck, +3 reinforcements
Axis: +1.21 actual, -0.33 low luck, -1 reinforcements

*this is a perfect example of the low luck lie (notice the difference between the allied dice using low luck and what it “actually” should be (when dividing 1’s by eight)

@SuperbattleshipYamato

End of round 6, game aggregate dice results:

Allies: +3.21 actual, -7.83 low luck, +3 reinforcements
Axis: -2.37 actual, -4.33 low luck, -1 reinforcements

Okay, I figured out what happened. Just a sec…

@SuperbattleshipYamato

The Germans were subjected to 95 strafe rolls (93 of which you rolled - you missed a pair of infantry rolling for a second fighter on turn 2 it looks like). The Allies scored 17 hits in those 93 rolls (+1.5 Low Luck and +5.375 Actual Luck). So the strafe rolls over performed and the strafes are not a ‘normal’ loss like fighting in a battle. It’s much the same as having a submarine eliminate a unit before a naval battle - strafes make units disappear not even to be used as soak casualties.

In the fewest amount of words, the Allies rolled warm/hot on their strafes and this compensated for an abysmal first two turns. The dice in general slowly walked back in favor of the allies in the mid game but the strafes were critical.

I feel that the Germans should be looking to accept somewhere between 60-80 strafes in a game whereas the allies are trying to score about 100 strafe rolls off the Germans.

Luck had a lot to do with it but the Germans might benefit from dialing it back a hair and being slightly more selective on when/where to eat strafe rolls. So something between this game and your last few is probably what you’re looking for in terms of strafes. Not close to zero but not 93 either.

@SuperbattleshipYamato

The way I would think about this game specifically is this. If it’s turn two and I know (or feel) that the Allies have been getting kicked in the teeth, I am going to play VERY conservative. I don’t want the allies to have any strafes. I will stack and mass and move where I can but I’m already sitting on a win with allies at -20 so I don’t want to give them any opportunities.

Now, lets say the opposite: the Allies have rolled +10 or I feel they are kicking ass and I’m the Germans. Now I feel that I am willing to eat strafes or take some risk to try to regain the initiative. Things look pretty bleak, so lets make some moves with mild risk and a decent return on investment if they work out.

I call it ‘moderating the risk profile’. Become more conservative if you are/feel you’re winning. Become more accepting of risky moves if you are/feel you’re on the back foot.

@SuperbattleshipYamato

All dice results include strafe rolls. The low luck results are just adding up all the pips and dividing by six.

The ‘actual’ dice are where I add up all the "1"s and divide by 8. Anything that hits at two or three is added up and divided by six separately and then all results are added into a single number. The ‘actual’ dice method of recording appears to be more ‘accurate’ in that the numbers are typically closer to zero at the end of games of D-Day than Low Luck which is usually pretty off the mark comparatively (again: this is more useful in D-Day given the piece count restriction and prevalence of units that hit at 1).

Where I vehemently disagree with Andrew is exactly where you mentioned. I have played only one game with him (before I knew anything about him) and was appalled that he will essentially never takes a chance outside of anything that’s less than 90 something percent or better (if that). If you know he wont attack you even at 75% for example then you can simply putt around the map and give him huge opportunities he will not take. This converts to tempo and reach on the board and you can just take stuff without fear of counterattack. One of the more bizarre Axis and Allies players imo. But if it works for him, all good. He is incredibly adept using a battle calculator.

@SuperbattleshipYamato said in TGC (Allies) vs. SBY (German) VF test game #2:

@The_Good_Captain

Thanks for clarifying how you calculate the dice results. Why do you still show the Low Luck dice results? To show the difference?

Two reasons. 1) I’m always curious to see how consistent my theory is to actual outcomes. 2) Low Luck is more relatable to the average axis and allies player.

Keep in mind he did say that he does take big risks if he that’s the only way to win the game (he mentioned that in one game he had only a 48% chance of taking Moscow and that after the IJN suffered crippling casualties he knew it was his only chance of winning. He made the attack and succeeded).

huh - my experience was not that. He gave up multiple battles at 80% (or near that) even when he was on the way out. Maybe he was planning to do something eventually bc the way it ended…

By the way, who won in that game? Which version was it?

Anniversary '41 setup that went to turn 25 or 26 and I missed a can opener in the Pacific in which he risked a pair of German bombers to remove a destroyer allowing the Japanese fleet to hit a good chunk of the USA fleet at great odds. This was totally avoidable as the allies by just taking the adjacent Island but I missed that the bombers could do that so I offered a conditional resignation which he turned down (I told him I would concede if we could continue the game outside of the tournament without the mistake) so I just conceded. If I had known who he was at the time, I would have taken the game far more seriously (and likely wouldn’t have conceded at all). He said he really only plays tournaments and he had no problem saying I was the better player, etc. He was on his way out until that mistake and I really wanted to see what his end game comments were going to be after it was all over because he just never deviated from taking NO risk and I was using that against him. But he got the tournament win because of the error in spite of his (to me odd) strategy. Of course I can only assert that - but the game still exists here on the forums…

https://www.axisandallies.org/forums/topic/38131/t-aa50-andrewaagamer-x-vs-the_good_captain-l-5/189

Thank you for the advice!