What's the consensus on a standard bid?


  • @Cmdr:

    Lucifer, the difference is this:

    Inf + Art > Inf + Arm in LL (Same attack punch, same cost.)

    Inf cost 3, art cost 4, 1 inf+1 art is 7 ipc?
    Tank cost 5, 1 inf + 1 tank is 8 ipc? Is that same cost?

  • '18 '17 '16 '11 Moderator

    It’s close enough.  Stop nit picking


  • Then pick this nit Jen…

    1 INF & 1 ART is 2 units with a total punch of 4 (both offense and defense)
    1 INF & 1 ARM is 2 units with a total punch of 4 (Offense) or 5 (defense).

    1 INF, 1 ART is NOT greater than 1 INF, 1 ARM in LL.
    They are equal on attack and the INF/ART is inferior on defense.

    Lastly, small scale battles such as this example are still ADS in LL.

    It is the large battles where the difference in LL and ADS really comes into play.

  • 2007 AAR League

    So what is the consensus on a standard bid?


  • 6-8 for the typical player, based on Tournaments and the league games I have looked at.


  • @Craig:

    This also why I don’t play online, PBEM, TripleA, etc.  I like to see the anguish, the despair, or the triumphant howl of my opponent when that die stops rolling.

    Craig

    The game was meant to be played face to face…. it’s a board game!
    But I totally agree with what you are saying.  FTF rules

    In the absence of that, PBEM will suffice

    Especially for us addicts.


  • LL is a valuable tool for evaluating certain aspects of the game but just isn’t a fun way to play the game.  Just my opinion.

    You WERE misrepresenting the argument. You’re saying that ADS is a superior way to play than LL. I am not even arguing the superiority of one system over another. I have already said multiple times ADS is the way to go for tournaments and I would never want to change that. I’m pointing out the exact use for LL, which you actually agree with. I am not playing LL for fun. I am playing it to test strategies. Everyone who continually tries to say that ADS is funner or more superior to LL needs to quiet down and argue what is being argued.

    That’s about the only thing going for LL.  You can set up your moves 5 game turns in advance if you know your opponent well.  You can’t do that in ADS.  You’re lucky if you can follow up with the start of game round 3 after Russia, England, America, Russian, England, America and Russia go.

    INCREDIBLY wrong. LL does not set up 100% moves at all. You can still lose your bomber or destroyer to that TP and not kill it. You can try the Russian Triple and still fail miserably. You can bid a sub to SZ8 and have the exact same odds as in ADS of killing SZ2. Belorussia varies from 0 attacking inf surviving to 2 inf surviving. Ukraine varies from 1 art 3 arm to 2 arm. Egypt varies from 1 inf 3 arm surviving to 1 arm surviving. Heavy Pearl ranges from losing nothing to losing 2 units besides the BB. Sounds exactly like ADS, doesn’t it? There’s still enough variance in LL to have to know when to retreat, and you still have to deal with bad dice.

    And in any case, you are only agreeing with me, because you are saying that LL you can set a strategy and test it without the influence of insanely polluting dice. That’s why I advocate it as a strategic modeling tool - as well as Darth Maximum and U-505, since I obviously have no influence. If you want to test one specific factor, in this case strategy, you try to attenuate the other variables or you have to work way too hard to see the strategy - if you can even see it at all in ADS.


  • I thought my poker analogy was clear.
    In large stack LL style you can go all-in whenever you’re the odds are that you’ll win on average.

    @Lucifer:

    @tekkyy:

    LL strategies does not work for ADS games.

    These are my strats. I know of several LL players who use this strats as well.
    According to tekkyy they do not work in ADS….   :roll:

    I was too generic.
    By “LL strategies” I mean strategies that work for LL games. They exploit the low variation of dice. Certainty of whether you’ll lose air units for example.

    You are also too generic.
    I did not say your strats don’t work in ADS.

    I imagine you’ll change your strats a bit when playing ADS. I imagine you wouldn’t exposure your air units on a regular basis.

    @DarthMaximus:

    @tekkyy:

    Depending on the curve “average dice + good dice” could be anyway between 50-100%.

    Good + avg should be significantly greater than 50%.

    Actually is there a case where its not?

    rough values from Excel 10k runs
    6 infantry on attack
    0 hit ~30%
    1 hits ~40%
    2 hits ~20%

    @ncscswitch:

    6-8 for the typical player, based on Tournaments and the league games I have looked at.

    Now, does that change with LL?
    I imagine it would be higher.

  • '18 '17 '16 '11 Moderator

    @ncscswitch:

    Then pick this nit Jen…

    Lastly, small scale battles such as this example are still ADS in LL.

    Actually, wrong.

    In ADS Inf+Art would be two rolls at 2 or less.  In LL Inf+Art is one roll at 4 or less.  Much better chance of a hit.

    Yes, in defense you get an ever so slight edge with the armor.  However, it’s much cheaper to stack copious amounts of infantry and artillery then infantry and armor because of the price difference.

    I’d rather send inf+art out then inf+arm and lose tanks needlessly.  Especially when Russia starts with 4 tanks and has no reason to lose any of them in LL.


  • @tekkyy:

    @ncscswitch:

    6-8 for the typical player, based on Tournaments and the league games I have looked at.

    Now, does that change with LL?
    I imagine it would be higher.

    No, bid will vary with bid rules. With 1 unit pr. TT axis bid should be 8-9 ipc.
    With bid rules that allows for units to be grouped, axis bid should be a bit lower.


  • @Cmdr:

    @ncscswitch:

    Then pick this nit Jen…

    Lastly, small scale battles such as this example are still ADS in LL.

    Actually, wrong.

    In ADS Inf+Art would be two rolls at 2 or less.  In LL Inf+Art is one roll at 4 or less.  Much better chance of a hit.

    Some expert should take a look a this. If I roll 2 dice and hit with 2 or less, is that not same probability to
    hit if I roll one die and hit with a 4 or less?

  • '18 '17 '16 '11 Moderator

    Yes, but we should limit the bid to what you see on this site.  Which is unrestricted bids.

    FIDA is just plain stupid.  All it does is double the bid amounts.
    Csub/TripleA is kinda ridiculous, one unit per TT.  Doable, but too easy to forget that’s the rule and get yelled at by your opponent.

    Unrestricted is just fine and keeps the bid from being ridiculous.  (Yes, anything over 9 is just plain silly.  Honestly, 7 is all one really needs and only to make sure Egypt dies.)

    @Lucifer:

    @Cmdr:

    @ncscswitch:

    Then pick this nit Jen…

    Lastly, small scale battles such as this example are still ADS in LL.

    Actually, wrong.

    In ADS Inf+Art would be two rolls at 2 or less.  In LL Inf+Art is one roll at 4 or less.  Much better chance of a hit.

    Some expert should take a look a this. If I roll 2 dice and hit with 2 or less, is that not same probability to
    hit if I roll one die and hit with a 4 or less?

    2 Artillery attacking 10 units to reflect ADS: 44% chance to hit once, 12% chance to hit twice, 40% to hit once. (3 and up is 8%)

    1 Battleship attacking 10 transports to reflect ADS:  53% chance to hit once, 20% to hit twice, 22% to hit thrice.

    So two units at 2 or less has a 44% chance to hit once and one roll at 4 or less has a 53% chance to hit once.

    Significantly higher chance to hit with a punch of 4 in LL with two units then in ADS.

  • '18 '17 '16 '11 Moderator

    Oh, I ran those on frood.net at 10,000 attempts, all rounds of combat.


  • Csub/TripleA is kinda ridiculous, one unit per TT.  Doable, but too easy to forget that’s the rule and get yelled at by your opponent.

    You only say it’s ridiculous because you’re not used to it. Triple A represents a much bigger and I think more talented playing pool than this org site (I think the Csub authors are the most talented players I’ve seen as well). And the mindset behind it is so as not to drastically change the board so you can’t do things like triple stack Ukraine or Libya. Unrestricted allows for ridiculous things like double/triple stacking.

    2 Artillery attacking 10 units to reflect ADS: 44% chance to hit once, 12% chance to hit twice, 40% to hit once. (3 and up is 8%)

    1 Battleship attacking 10 transports to reflect ADS:  53% chance to hit once, 20% to hit twice, 22% to hit thrice.

    So two units at 2 or less has a 44% chance to hit once and one roll at 4 or less has a 53% chance to hit once.

    Significantly higher chance to hit with a punch of 4 in LL with two units then in ADS.

    I don’t think you’re running the test right. Just run it for one round of combat. Rolling 2 dice at 2 averages out to the same as rolling 1 at four if you’re looking at one round of combat and average out the results.


  • @tekkyy:

    I imagine you’ll change your strats a bit when playing ADS. I imagine you wouldn’t exposure your air units on a regular basis.

    No, I always contest/take Afr with allies, never build in sz 55, I usually don’t buy fleet with Germany.
    I will try to link the Jap navy with the German in med, if its doable.
    I don’t buy IC in India with UK, no IC in sink with US.
    Sometimes I would contest Afr with Jap, sometimes not. The situation on the map will decide what I do, not if it’s
    ADS or LL.
    These strats do not change weather I’m plying ADS or LL games.
    Risking ftrs is a bad strat imo both in ADS and LL games  :-P


  • In ADS Inf+Art would be two rolls at 2 or less.  In LL Inf+Art is one roll at 4 or less.  Much better chance of a hit.

    If you’re fighting one unit, yes there is a better chance in LL. But that still doesn’t mean the you wouldn’t make the attack in ADS.

    But if you’re fighting 2 units, the average results is precisely the same. 2 rolls at 2 can hit twice in one round (cannot in LL), which happens 11% of the time (1/3 times 1 /3). They both miss 44% of the time (2/3 x 2/3), which is more than the 33% in LL - but do you see, the extra 11% of the time where they both miss is exactly balanced out by the 11% of the time where they both hit. 11% of the time with 2 hits balanaced out with 11% of the time at 0 hits to 1 hit.


  • @Cmdr:

    Yes, but we should limit the bid to what you see on this site.  Which is unrestricted bids.

    FIDA is just plain stupid.  All it does is double the bid amounts.
    Csub/TripleA is kinda ridiculous, one unit per TT.

    It’s not ridiculous with 1 units pr. TT, but I actually agree that bids should be totally unrestricted.
    FIDA bids (all cash?) just makes clear that the game is not balanced out  :wink:

  • Moderator

    I don’t think there is really that much difference in 1 unit per TT bids and unrestriced.

    You can still bid 8-9 to Afr/cash (1 inf Lib, 1 arm Alg), or trn to Sz 14 for ADS or
    1 inf Belo, 1 inf (or rt/arm) Lib, 1 inf (or cash) somewhere else for LL.

    But I honestly don’t think the 3 inf bid to Ukr is that big of deal.  It might be annoying but it is beatable.  IMO, It’s kind of like the 23 PE bid in Classic, you put all your eggs in one basket and if you fail in take Mos in 3 turns the Allies will win.  It just isn’t a fun game.  I think it is more of an intimidation play but once you see it 2-3 times it loses that effect.

    I think a PAfr bid is the way to go, giving the the Axis the most possibilites to win, and in this case 1 per TT and unrestricted are equivalent since you are able to place 8 ipc in Afr in each case or get the extra trn in Sz 14.

  • '18 '17 '16 '11 Moderator

    A)  Of course it’s silly in MY opinion.  :P  I can’t declare something silly for everyone’s opinion by fiat!

    B)  The test should be for all rounds of combat.  Not just the first round of combat, since if you miss, you’d obviously keep going (assuming everyone missed and you didn’t get your buttocks handed to you.)  So yea, you have a higher chance of hitting with 1@4 then 2@2.  Granted, you cannot possibly hit twice in the first round with the 1@4, so?  We’re trying to see which has the best chance to get ONE hit.


  • @Craig:

    As for the CSub bid restrictions, I have spent enough gaming sessions arguing with Crazystraw (and Mighty Air Force) about their “fixes”.  We have come to the understanding that we just don’t agree. :-(

    I don’t understand that!  (btw - CrazyStraw is my old avatar.  I’m TJ Hoo… Mazer Rackham now)

    I don’t agree to disagree!

    You will submit!

    You will relent!

    You will be assimilated!

    Dang, my frothing sems to b shrtg out my kebr

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