What's the consensus on a standard bid?

But if you go BB, Trn to SZ 13 (bringing the Submarine) you don’t need any fighters there.

So you still have 2 Infantry, Artillery, Armor, Fighter, Bomber vs Infantry, Armor, Fighter in Egypt.  And you have 4 un-designated fighters and a bomber to use somewhere else.

@Cmdr:

But if you go BB, Trn to SZ 13 (bringing the Submarine) you don’t need any fighters there.

So you still have 2 Infantry, Artillery, Armor, Fighter, Bomber vs Infantry, Armor, Fighter in Egypt.  And you have 4 un-designated fighters and a bomber to use somewhere else.

Fine – you’re STILL down a fighter.  Even if you buy one, you only have 6 instead of 7 and, like Bean said, 3 less infantry.  Opportunity cost, m’dear . . .

I understand that, Gamer.  What I’m saying is the opportunity cost to Germany does not exceed or equal the opportunity cost to Russia by losing those three armor.

The cash is equal
The land is equal
Germany’s down 1 Fighter, Russia’s down 3 Armor.

1 Fighter attacks at 3 or less
3 Armor attack three times at 3 or less

I think it’s a bigger hit to Russia.  You have my permission to think otherwise if you so wish it.  But I think Russia’s just asking for abuse.  What do you win that with, 1 tank?  So there’s probably no defense of Ukraine to cost Germany anything. Of course, it means i’m not sending the BB to SZ 13 which means it’s 4 fighters, submarine vs battleship and Ukraine and Egypt may be my only attacks (Karelia if empty) for land, but that’s not a huge deal either.

Lots of people like to try to overpower Egypt with mass forces, like Darth or Akreider. That makes it difficult if Ukraine is attacked since now not only do you have to overpower Egypt (try your best to one shot Egypt), but retake Ukraine and kill the UK BB off of SZ13. You’re probably going to lack fighters in Ukraine which means thinking about saccing a tank, which is ugly. 3 figs to the UK bb with a sub, 1 fig to hit the destroyer or Egypt which is a tradeoff already, and you have 1 fig + infantry to take out the 3 arm + in Ukraine (btw it’s  62% according to frood to take Ukraine with 3 arm or better, and 90% to take it with 1 arm or better…)

And if you don’t overpower Egypt, then you can forget about making any progress in Africa unless you purchase something big in the med, which you can’t really do if you’re replacing the fighter you lost.

It’s best to assume that 3 arm will occupy Ukraine, because that or better happens an obvious majority of the time. In that case remember that those 3 arm are taking out units on their way out and spreading Germany’s attack pattern thin if they’re also taking Egpyt and the UK BB.

Good luck favors the Russians more in Ukraine than the Germans, I think. Even with some crappy luck then Russia has at least cleared Ukraine, which you’re already assuming as a worst case scenario which happens less than 10% of the time, but if the Russians hit the other end of the spectrum you’re seeing 1 art 3 arm in Ukraine, which overtaxes Germany’s coping resources.

I think the W.Russia only opening has merits – I haven’t ruled it out.  But, personally, I prefer a smaller Luftwaffe.  And the odds are actually that you’ll take Ukraine with three armor, not one.  So Germany has to commit some infantry (and at least 1 fighter or 1 armor) to retaking Ukraine.  I/O/W, it ain’t no gimme.  It sucks to lose 3 armor, but Germany has to watch its back door too.  It probably means Russia isn’t taking any other chancy battles in the first few rounds, but an even trade is hardly the disaster for Russia that you make it sound.

There’s about 60% chance for the Russians to take Ukraine with 3 arm or better, which puts the dice in favor of the Russians.

If the Russians get a couple clicks down on luck, it’s ok because clearing Ukraine is acceptable (95% to clear Ukraine if you take that as your bottom line).

But if the Russians get a couple clicks up on luck, suddenly the Germans are in massive trouble. 22% chance to see 3 arm 1 art, and a strong 13% chance to see 1 inf 1 art 3 arm, and now how are the Germans going to compensate for their round 1 attacks?

I’m liking the Ukraine attack more and more that I’m looking at it in ADS, because the good luck swings are much higher and the bad luck swings mostly result in an equal suicide. If you’re so willing to suicide 8 inf 8 arm to kill 10 inf, why not do an even trade with Russia, Jen?

The biggest problem I have with attacking Ukraine is that it leaves the WR attack woefully short of offensive power. If you want to reliably take Ukraine with enough force to not only take it but also have enough units remaining to cause the German player a headache( taking with 1 arm doesn’t annoy me as Germany), then you will have to bring 3 arm, 2 fig. If you only bring 3 arm, 1 fig or 2 arm, 2 fig to give WR more muscle, then the chances of taking Ukraine at all drop a good amount. By attacking Ukraine/WR you are usually taking more causalties in WR that you would if you attacked Belo/WR, as well. I just prefer the more reliable opening of Belo/WR despite giving Germany more freedom in their opening, because Russia can afford for Belo to get ugly and WR never does because of the amount of overkill brought to that battle. In Ukr/WR, Russia can’t afford for either battle to get ugly.

@U-505:

The biggest problem I have with attacking Ukraine is that it leaves the WR attack woefully short of offensive power. If you want to reliably take Ukraine with enough force to not only take it but also have enough units remaining to cause the German player a headache( taking with 1 arm doesn’t annoy me as Germany), then you will have to bring 3 arm, 2 fig. If you only bring 3 arm, 1 fig or 2 arm, 2 fig to give WR more muscle, then the chances of taking Ukraine at all drop a good amount. By attacking Ukraine/WR you are usually taking more causalties in WR that you would if you attacked Belo/WR, as well. I just prefer the more reliable opening of Belo/WR despite giving Germany more freedom in their opening, because Russia can afford for Belo to get ugly and WR never does because of the amount of overkill brought to that battle. In Ukr/WR, Russia can’t afford for either battle to get ugly.

This is why I always roll the West Russia battle FIRST – to see how aggressive I can be in the Ukraine battle.  Depending on how W.Russia goes, I might not push my luck in Ukraine.  But you are correct – W.Russia is the weakest link of this strategy, NOT Ukraine, as everyone else seems to think.

Well for the Ukr attack I think that battle in itself is favorable to the Russians. 95% of the battles result in clearing Ukraine with 2 fighters left, which is an even trade - that is workable. It’s not overly annoying to Germany, but it’s not killing Russia either. The average is 3 armor left, so if we get unlucky and lose up to 3 armor than expected, it’s still acceptable.

But good luck is pretty awesome. There’s a 33% chance that there will be more than 3 arm left, with a significant 13% chance of seeing 1 inf 1 art 3 arm. Germany’s in a quandary at this point; to attack is to significantly weaken other attacks or burn up valuable tanks, to not attack is to let the Russians get away with murder (3 inf for 3 inf 1 art 1 arm 1 fig). So I guess the only choice is for the Germans to strafe in that case.

1 in 3 games will see Germany with an annoying as hell force in Ukraine, and in those other 2 out of 3, the vast majority is at worst doing an even trade, which is acceptable.

That I think gets luck to work for you - the bad luck isn’t so bad, but the good luck is amazing.

I do however like the point that W. Russia is much less secure than normal. That adds a layer of uncertainty to the Ukraine attack, because even if you succeed there, if you mess up in W. Russia that can deflate you.

Edit: nice point about rolling W. Russia first, Gamer.

I happen to like to take Egypt with massive power if I can.  If you can get 2 armor and some ground units (Inf/Art) to live in Egypt then England’s going to be hard pressed to get it back, and if they don’t, then you can blitz from there for quick financial gains.

So just for heck I decided to try the Ukraine attack in my game against ncscswitch. I survived with 1 Inf 1 Art 3 Arm, and between WRus and Caucasus there are 11 Inf staring at any German force that retakes Ukraine. I also got a little silly and bought 1 Ftr 1 Arm 3 Inf on Russia 1 - I’m experimenting with the idea that Russia can really use extra air power. I might even buy a 4th ftr omgzorz!

Well I just did the W. Russia/Ukraine attack and came up with 3 inf 1 art 1 arm in W. Russia and 2 arm in Ukraine -_-! Freaking Ender, your troops love you more than they love me, that’s why I could never be the commander…

On a more serious note, the result you got is only very slightly above average in Ukraine, and W. Russia you got the median outcome. I’m glad it came out good for you because it burnt me in the butt.

Btw I highly not recommend getting a 4th fighter, Ender. 3 is just right. Any more than three and you’re losing out on significant land troops, any less and you’re throwing art or arm to take territories.

@Bean:

Btw I highly not recommend getting a 4th fighter, Ender. 3 is just right. Any more than three and you’re losing out on significant land troops, any less and you’re throwing art or arm to take territories.

I agree 100%.

@Ender:

So just for heck I decided to try the Ukraine attack in my game against ncscswitch. I survived with 1 Inf 1 Art 3 Arm, and between WRus and Caucasus there are 11 Inf staring at any German force that retakes Ukraine. I also got a little silly and bought 1 Ftr 1 Arm 3 Inf on Russia 1 - I’m experimenting with the idea that Russia can really use extra air power. I might even buy a 4th ftr omgzorz!

Let us know how that purchase works out for you (or, gee, I guess I could just read along the thread myself).  I’ve seen that purchase A LOT lately in different combinations of openings, and while I was initially skeptical, I think it can work with the right opening.  (And be disasterous with the wrong opening.)

I think it’s probably better to buy the fig immediately to save the art on R2; you should have enough troops with average or better dice + the infantry units flowing in from the east.

http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=10605.new#new

There’s the game link.

I like the idea of the 4th fighter b/c then you can attack 2 territories with 2 Ftrs each. But agreed, it is at the cost of land units. It may be a good idea once some reinforcements have arrived. I know Ftrs are expensive, but their tactical mobility can be worth it - like tanks that could decide any turn whether they hit the japanese or the germans.  Of course, for the same price you can have a tank on each front…

Yeah it might be ok once reinforcements have arrived. Before that though I’d rather have 3 extra inf to act as fodder in case of a Ukraine push or in case I decide to move into Ukraine heavy myself.

Well, that game is not going to be a good judge…

Dan once again is getting incredible dice in his game against me…
Allies have well above average dice thus far.

Hell Japan went 5 rounds in China with 5 INF, 3 FIGs
AND ONLY MANAGED TO CLEAR IT BUT NOT TAKE IT!
:roll:

I feel your pain Switch, but I’m still gunna nag you for being a hypocrite. :P

Anyway, yea, bad dice trump good tactics any day!

As for 4 fighters with Russia, not until you own E. Europe and/or Balkans and no Japanese pressure and only if you want to clear the med with Russia.  That happens like what, once every 50th game?

@Cmdr:

I feel your pain Switch, but I’m still gunna nag you for being a hypocrite. :P

Anyway, yea, bad dice trump good tactics any day!

As for 4 fighters with Russia, not until you own E. Europe and/or Balkans and no Japanese pressure and only if you want to clear the med with Russia.  That happens like what, once every 50th game?

Very true, but it’s really cool when Russia has that fourth fighter!  Russia with an airforce is SCAARRRRRY! :-o