This is the strategy outlined in the German playbook. It hasn’t been found to be optimal, even in Balanced Mod3 which gives it some help relative to other strategies.
Do not declare war on the United States. The United States will have to wait until Round 3 to join the war
Round 2: Italy holds off the British, Japan pushes into China, the money islands, and the Soviet Union, and Germany pushes into the Soviet Union.
You cannot take the money islands without going to war with UK and ANZAC. You cannot go to war with UK and ANZAC without bringing the US into the war (unless they declare war on you, but they won’t). From page 37:
Japan may attack Dutch territories only if a state of war exists between it and the United Kingdom and ANZAC.
The United States may not declare war on any Axis power unless […] or Japan makes an unprovoked declaration of war against the UK or ANZAC
I think leaving the money islands so long is a handicap the Axis just can’t afford. Worse, ANZAC and the UK can take these islands for significant income boosts.
Rules aside though, I think you’re wildly underestimating Russia. An average Russian player will not lose Moscow on turn 5 or 6. A good Russian player will actively force Germany to delay movement or risk attack-retreats strongly in Russia’s favour. Germany’s advantage here is that Russia cannot afford to guard all of it’s critical territory and will eventually bleed out when it loses enough income.
its a good thought but relies way to much on luck and poor allied play
I think leaving the money islands so long is a handicap the Axis just can’t afford. Worse, ANZAC and the UK can take these islands for significant income boosts.
True, it gives UK and Anzac income boosts. Those income boosts will be taken away quite quickly however once Japan DOW. As far as the handicap is concerned. Assuming a J1 attack, Japan can capture Borneo on turn 1. If USA rolls poorly in the Phillipines then Japan can hop on the other three islands assuming UK and Anzac haven’t placed anything on them. If they put up, say two Inf each on an island each then Japan probably won’t get all the islands J2. Meanwhile USA is into the war. And if USA rolled well or Japan rolled poorly in the Phillipines battle then a J2 capture of allied controlled money islands probably won’t happen.
If Japan builds 3 TT and an Inf or Art J1 and keeps USA out of the war until J3. Position those TT next to Kwansi with some carriers/air power then Japan can take the Phillipines and all of the money islands pretty much guaranteed on its 3rd turn. Plus they take Hong Kong that turn while their drive into China while only being at war with China should have the Chinese backed up quite far. That is a massive income swing for Japan in one turn. All the while keeping the USA out of the war all that time. And if the UK and Anzac want to stack the money islands with troops and planes. Just build more TTs on J2. That only benefits Japan because there is less troops on Calcutta/Sydney.
@ProtesT:
True, it gives UK and Anzac income boosts. Those income boosts will be taken away quite quickly however once Japan DOW. As far as the handicap is concerned. Assuming a J1 attack, Japan can capture Borneo on turn 1. If USA rolls poorly in the Phillipines then Japan can hop on the other three islands assuming UK and Anzac haven’t placed anything on them. If they put up, say two Inf each on an island each then Japan probably won’t get all the islands J2. Meanwhile USA is into the war. And if USA rolled well or Japan rolled poorly in the Phillipines battle then a J2 capture of allied controlled money islands probably won’t happen.
If Japan builds 3 TT and an Inf or Art J1 and keeps USA out of the war until J3. Position those TT next to Kwansi with some carriers/air power then Japan can take the Phillipines and all of the money islands pretty much guaranteed on its 3rd turn. Plus they take Hong Kong that turn while their drive into China while only being at war with China should have the Chinese backed up quite far. That is a massive income swing for Japan in one turn. All the while keeping the USA out of the war all that time. And if the UK and Anzac want to stack the money islands with troops and planes. Just build more TTs on J2. That only benefits Japan because there is less troops on Calcutta/Sydney.
I tend to think J2 is optimal under most conditions, so the J1 argument you’re having isn’t really with me. I largely agree with you. Still, I’ll stand by my statement: A J3 DoW allows ANZAC and UK to grab an island each and retreat, giving them 8-12IPC each for no cost before Japan can take them. Borneo and Kwangtung add another 14IPCs to UK. That hurts, especially since Japan is reducing their potential J2 income substantially. J2 brings it down to 4IPC each and 7IPC for Borneo and Kwangtung, and they sacrifice the TT and Inf. That said, I expect UK will most likely use it’s TT to hit the Italians in Africa.
Do not declare war on the United States. The United States will have to wait until Round 3 to join the war
Round 2: Italy holds off the British, Japan pushes into China, the money islands, and the Soviet Union, and Germany pushes into the Soviet Union.
You cannot take the money islands without going to war with UK and ANZAC. You cannot go to war with UK and ANZAC without bringing the US into the war (unless they declare war on you, but they won’t).
They might DOW UK2 but if they don’t, a J3 DOW affects the Europe side minimally with this strategy. In fact, a J2 DOW doesn’t affect the strategy much unless US1 builds up the Atlantic side.
One other factor: Germany can defend against the USA much better if its BB isn’t taken out by the Russians.
The usual way this allied strategy is stopped is including flying British planes up from the Middle East. Without that move, this strategy will likely succeed. However, once the allies do so, if they do it quickly enough, the potential interceptors and defenders are usually enough to stop it.
Agreed Simon. I see so many people getting to Persia on UK1 so that fighters start going up to Moscow by UK4. That gives one round to bomb the capitol but after that Germany is unlikely to have many additional raids. The main downside of a large group of British planes in Moscow is that Germany doesn’t face as much pressure in Western Europe and hence can more leisurely attack down into the Middle East. So many people fail to see that an economic strategy is often the key to winning for the Axis.
With a G1 I think you should be looking for raids from G3. I buy 2 bombers G1 in BM so that the air battle (unless the Russians buy fighters) is a wash and probably better avoided for the Russians. OOB you could probably get away with one bomber.
I’m wondering if stripping planes from every front leaves gaps that the axis can profit from though, most notably Calcutta.
Certainly leaving peace J3 is a loser for the Axis. I have determined by experience.
True, threatening Sealion is strong German play, but as Young Grasshopper himself has said, many British players do not fear it much these days, so you might as well hit Russia hard, right from the start, and get the killing blow(in my strategic opinion).
Thanks and God Bless You All from AxisandAlliesGeneral
