I think a bid of 22 is generous for the Allies, and that the Allies should win most of their games with a bid that high. You may not be able to move the Panama cruiser, but with a bid of 22 IPCs, you can buy a new one to protect the American Atlantic transports! Even if the Germans send both subs against your DD + CA, you have 60.5% odds for the American transports to survive, plus you’re pretty much guaranteed that at least one British Atlantic fleet will survive. You have 10 IPCs left over to buy, e.g., an infantry for Egypt, an infantry in Szechuan to protect the Flying Tigers, and an artillery in the Caucasus to enable you to make an orthodox R1 attack on Ukraine + West Russia while still holding at least one tank in reserve.
Another crazy idea that starts to make sense at the 22 IPC level is a Russian destroyer bid for the White Sea (north of Karelia, with the sub). Move the destroyer to the North Sea as a blocking unit, and the German subs and cruiser can’t get out of the Baltic on G1 to attack British ships, meaning that if the Germans want to take out your British battleship, they’ll have to pay for it with fighter casualties. For maximum effect, pair with a British destroyer bid to help protect the British battleship. You still have 6 IPCs left over to buy a couple of infantry for Egypt, Szechuan, or the Caucasus.
A third option is bidding a fighter for Karelia – this lets you sink the German Baltic cruiser and transport at very little risk, and will also usually give the Russians a third fighter, which always comes in handy. If you want to go crazy with the Russian air force, you can spend the whole bid to put a fighter in the Caucasus and a bomber in Moscow and attack the German Med fleet on R1 – you have an 82% chance to sink the German Battleship, which nicely protects Egypt and makes it very expensive (air casualties) for Germany to sink the British boats in the Med.
More conservatively, if you just bid 1 inf in Egypt, 1 inf in Szechuan, 1 art in India (giving you 88% odds to take 4-IPC Borneo on B1 even without a cruiser bombard), 1 inf in Karelia, 1 inf in Caucasus, 1 inf in Moscow, and 1 inf in Archangel, you should be in good shape to win a conventional war. You can, e.g., put everything into West Russia on R1 and be very certain that the stack will survive any possible German counter, which will slow down the German economy, and taking Borneo on B1 plus sinking one of the Japanese starting transports has a tendency to seriously slow down the Japanese economy. The bids in Egypt and Szechuan give you very good odds of keeping an extra couple of fighters around, which can be used to help destroy Axis boats and then help defend chokepoints or capitals. True, you’ll lose the American transports, but that’s a survivable loss – sometime in the first two turns, those German subs will die without putting up much of a fight, and so you’re ultimately trading 1 DD + 2 transports (worth 22 IPCs) for 2 German subs (worth 12 IPCs). You will also “lose” the battle of Pearl Harbor Mark II, but with the counter-attack and counter-counter-attack, and counter-counter-counter-attack, that all comes out mostly even. It’s not even clear to me why you’d want to stop the Japanese from pouring 60%+ of their economy into trading on even terms with the Americans in the central Pacific, where the Japanese can’t possibly gain any income. The Axis start out with an income of 71 IPCs vs. the Allies’ 96 IPCs…so if the Axis trade on even terms and gain no territories, they lose.
Of course, if you insist, you can always bid an British bomber in Burma and British fighter off the coast of India, as Black_Elk suggests…but instead of sending them to kill the second Japanese transport, send the entire Pacific RAF against the Japanese carrier in the Caroline islands! With British 2 ftr, 1 bmr against Japanese 1 CV, 1 ftr, 1 CA, you have 87% odds to sink both the cruiser and the carrier, which absolutely cripples the Pearl Harbor attack – all the Japanese can bring is 1 bomber and 1 sub, which is laughable against your American CV, ftr, DD, sub. The catch is that all you have left to attack the Japanese transport is 1 CA, so the transport has a 50% chance to survive – but with no Pearl Harbor and a bunch of dead Japanese boats, the American Pacific fleet should be able to put enough pressure on Japan to make a blitz against India suicidal for the Japanese.
I don’t much enjoy the massive stackfests, but they are pretty common in tournament play – nobody wants to lose the game by risking everything on a 60%-40% battle. My games usually end around turn 10, somewhere between the orthodox games and the reckless games. I’ll take a risk if I see a good opportunity, but I don’t believe in just throwing every unit you have onto the front lines every turn.
Finally, as a note on overall strategy / perspective…I wouldn’t call the US crippled after a standard turn 1. The Japanese cannot take all 4 Chinese territories on turn 1, and if you put a Russian infantry or bid infantry in Szechuan, then it’s unwise for the Japanese to take more than 2 Chinese territories on turn 1. So the USA will start the game with 42 IPCs, and will likely collect 40 IPCs on turn 1. Meanwhile, the USA has a core of 35 IPCs that are pretty frigging untouchably safe, plus the Panama cruiser and a BB, DD, and transport in San Francisco bay, plus a bomber and 4 fighters. The USA is usually out of position to make any amazing attacks on turn 1, but you start with about 100 IPCs of heavy equipment, plus you get to drop another 82 IPCs of heavy equipment onto the board in turns 1 and 2, almost none of which is really needed for defense of US territories, so you’ve got a $182 punch to throw on turn 3 or turn 4. That’s not irrelevant, so don’t write the US off as a factor in the defense of the center.