Thank you all for pointing out possible loopholes or possibly critical weaknesses of the Afrika Korps strategy! Before I can actually test it out in a real battle it remains theory crafting and you may all be right.
However,
I want Taranto to happen as this gives me the UK Med fleet on a silver plait for the Luftwaffe in G2. This also mean the Royal Airforce out of position to threaten the German Tropical Fleet. As long as I can attack Greece with 1 transport and Turkey with at least 1 Transport I am confident I can take Turkey with Italy.
Yes Russia can buy 10 Infantry and then 9 Artillery in R1 and R2 and has more troops at the frontier then Germany they have to defend four flanks (Scandinavia, Leningrad, Ukraine, Stalingrad) and with all that Infantry and Artillery a lot less flexibility than Germany with it Tanks, Transports and Luftwaffe. As soon Italy captures Turkey a fifth flank opens through the Black Sea.
You do make an excellent point about the UK expeditionary forces in the Middle East before G3. Those will need attention as both the UK and Russia at same time would mean suicide. Then just delay the South attack.
Germany has actually 6 Infantry, 1 Artillery in Scandinavia (Army North), 16 Infantry, 1 Artillery, 11 Tanks, 4 Mech. Infantry at western border (Army West) and 9 Tanks in Turkey (Afrika Korps) assuming 2 Infantry died in the capture of Sweden and the 6 Infantry + 4 Mech. Infantry died in the battle of the Middle East against the UK expeditionary forces.
That are 22 Infantry, 2 Artillery, 20 Tanks and 4 Mech. Infantry supported by 4 Bombers, 3 Fighters, 3 Tactical Bombers (assuming 2 Fighters and 2 Tactical Bombers died against the Royal Navy able to attack of four different flanks. From G4 the amount of Bombers will exponentially grow.
Also, as I leave the Romanian border very weak, a logical response of the Russian might be to concentrate force there and therefore not reinforcing those troops to either Leningrad or Stalingrad.
OK so he really reinforced Leningrad unable to capture? Both Novgorod as Belarus 10 Infantry with 10 Artillery able to kill my stack? Attack Western Ukraine and push through to Moscow going to Belarus or Bryansk, you are always one step ahead of Russia. Yes he might come for Berlin but this is so easy to counter with some defensive builds of your own.
Remember: as long you focused enough on the Middle East oil and African gold you will have money to blow as Axis. That is the whole point of the Afrika Korps strategy, pushing your starting tanks and mechs through the Middle East to provide an early Axis counter-force against the normally easy IPC taken as UK and Russia. I really believe it is possible to take the Middle East from the UK with your Afrika Korps (9 Tanks, 4 Mech. 6 Infantry, 1 Fighter) only.
Even when your Baltic fleet gets destroyed with heavy air losses for the RAF eventually this does not matter, you just need 1 German ground unit to be in Egypt at the end of G4. You could as easily send some Tanks from the Africa Korps (always a good idea) to get the NO. The point of the Baltic Fleet to the Med is just to give the Afrika Korps Tanks the option to go full Russia instead.
I might make tactical mistakes with planning or playing due to inexperience (<20 games) but I am confident that strategically going South (Oil + Gold) instead of West (London) or East (Moscow) in the first four turns gives the Axis something unknown to us: Time. Normally its you either decide Sea Lion or Barbarossa and if it fails, you lose. Not with the Afrika Korps. It might provide the sensation of World Domination instead of capturing enough VC just in time to not be destroyed by the USA the next turn. This would also make the battle of the Middle East and Africa between the UK and Axis so much more intense, giving many old school player a fresh exciting Axis & Allies experience! :-D
In the scenario Russia is just too strongly defended in the Caucasus to push through them with your initial forces, put some Middle Eastern factories there and do it the slow way. You have the luxury to take it slow with the oil and gold income, they don’t.
Germany also do not need to crush Russia in G4 or G5, just several Tanks capturing the NO territories let me break Russia within 1-2 turns.
Actually I would be glad if the Russian wanted to try defend all its flanks and send those defensive troops so far forwards. From J3 I am bombing the hell out the Russia so he will not be given a chance to recover losing his big stacks.
I am also much more willing to face the Russian fast troops in the Caucasus with my German Tanks then in China against my limited Japanese ground forces trying to keep Yunnan closed. With China destroyed after Turn 4 Russia is even more surrounded with 2-3 more flanks to defend as the Japanese reach Russia through the north, China and south by capturing the Russia of the Pacific (India).
I did changed my G1 a little, buying an Aircraft Carrier, Submarine and Destroyer. I can buy the needed transports to take Egypt in G3 in SZ93 and gives the Tropical Fleet protection against the odd Russian or UK Submarine.
Don’t forget the Italian Army: 1 Tank, 1 Mech. Infantry, 2 Artillery, 4 Infantry removing 3-5 Infantry before the German attack on Egypt.
I am not sure if you guys observed the small detail that might give so much more feeling to the battle? Its one those fluffy things like keeping the Bismarck alive or doing something cool with your French fleet (I once finished the Axis fleet with the French after USA and UK failed attacks). Its the creation of Erwin Rommel himself coordinating the Italian Army in Africa and later the Afrika Korps in the form of the Tobruk fighter. It instantly makes the Tobruk fighter have something heroic and you wanting to preserve it at all costs :-D. This ofcourse also applies to actually making an Armoured Afrika Korps instead of a German Infantry shuttled to Egypt by an Italian Transport.
Or what about the scenario Italy horribly fails with Turkey (taken by the French soldier from Syria in F2) and you get to move 5-6 French soldiers into Caucasus to defend Southern Russia or even Moscow? Germany that fails to finish off the French troops in Southern France/Normany and that last soldier creates a French army in Spain? Epic!