Is the Earliest Realistic D-Day on Turn 4?

Some of my recent posts have explored off-beat strategies, like (as the Allies) trying to win by controlling mainland east Asia, or (as the Axis) trying to win by killing Britain first. Today I�m going to shift gears and look at a much more classic opening – Kill Germany First – but with two twists. First, no American ground troops will cross the Atlantic. Second, the Allies will invade western Europe as quickly as possible: I think the earliest turn that makes sense for D-Day is turn 4, but if you have an idea for how to land on turn 3 or even turn 2, I�d love to hear about it in the comments.

Don’t Bother with an American Shuck-Shuck
So, why the ban on American ground troops crossing the Atlantic? As I�ve argued elsewhere in these forums, ships (all ships!) are too expensive relative to infantry and planes. Even though ship prices have come down compared to previous versions of Axis & Allies, the size of the Atlantic ocean has roughly doubled, meaning that you need twice as many transports and twice as much time to send troops from Washington to Paris. It used to be that every transport you built increased the effective size of your transport fleet almost immediately. Now, though, if you build a transport off the coast of Washington on turn 1, then it reaches Casablanca on turn 2, Paris on turn 3, Casablanca (again) on turn 4, and comes back to Washington and saves you the price of a new transport for the very first time on turn 5. This allows you to spend the savings on more ground troops, which will reach Paris on turn 7. It�s just too slow and too expensive.

As a quick reality check, imagine building 4 fighters per turn for the first 5 turns, followed by 1 carrier and 2 fighters on turn 6, at a cost of 234 IPCs, and sending all the fighters to Paris. (The carrier on turn 6 sits in the western Atlantic and is just there to make sure the last turn’s worth of fighters can reach in time). By turn 7, all 22 fighters would reach Paris, rolling 66 offensive pips on 22 HP. If instead you spent that money on marines, you would need to build 2 transports per turn on turns 1-4 at a cost of 64 IPCs, plus a defensive escort of (say) two battleships, two cruisers, and four destroyers at a cost of 96 IPCs, plus 2 infantry, 1 artillery, and 1 tank per turn on turns 1-3 and 3 infantry, 1 artillery on turns 4-5, at a cost of 72 IPCs. That would get you a total invasion force of 12 inf, 5 art, 3 tnk, supported by 2 BB and 2 CA, which lets you roll 7 + 10 + 10 + 9 + 8 + 6 = 50 offensive pips on 20 HPs on turn 7. So the same 234 IPCs go much further in air units than they do in land/sea units if you have to cross the Atlantic. Eventually, somewhere around turn 12, the values will shift back the other way, as your initial investment in defensive ships and transports starts to get recycled and pay dividends. But let’s be serious – if you have to wait until turn 12 for your investment to pay off, you’re conceding Moscow to the Axis, if not conceding the whole game.

Thanks to calvinhobbesliker for pointing out that fighters can’t reach directly from Washington to Paris – I’ve corrected this post in response to his comment.

Suggested Builds

Because the price of planes has also come down compared to previous editions, and because fighters can still fly from (carriers off the coast of) Washington to London or Paris in one turn, it makes more sense for the USA to give up on the idea of a transport ferry altogether, and just deliver warships and warplanes to the front lines. On A1, the USA can build 3 carriers (42 IPC) in the Atlantic Ocean, 1 of which can be filled with already existing fighters on the US mainland. On A2, the USA can build 4 fighters (40 IPC) in the Eastern US, and move the carriers to the coast of Canada. On A3, the USA can unite the carriers and fighters in the English Channel. The USA will probably have to devote some production to warding off Japanese attacks in the Pacific, but the USA can still build 2 fighters (20 IPC) in the Eastern US.

Meanwhile, the British can build something like this:
B1: 3 inf in India + 3 inf, 1 art in London + save 10 IPC
B2: 3 inf in India + save about 18 IPC
B3: spend savings on 4 transports and 2 destroyers in English Channel + any remaining income to India
B4 and afterward: 6 inf, 2 art in London

The British evacuate their surviving fighters from Egypt and India and send them to London via Russia.

The Attack

This sets the Allies up for a turn 4 British attack on either France or Northwestern Europe with a minimum of 4 inf, 3 art, 1 tnk, 3 ftr, 1 bmbr. Germany simply doesn�t have the manpower to simultaneously garrison both Northwestern Europe and France with enough infantry to absorb that attack if they�re going to try to attack Russia at all, and after Britain takes the territory, the US can land all 6 fighters from the carriers on mainland Europe (2 of those fighters can be immediately replaced from the fresh production in the EUS). Germany can probably re-take the territory, but only by using the last of its garrison troops, and then on turn 5 the British attack again with 6 inf, 2 art, 3 ftr, 1 bmbr and walk into France virtually unopposed. Conveniently, turn 4 is the turn when both the American Pacific Fleet and the British Australian fleet will arrive in the Channel to shore up the (now partly empty) carriers. Even with only 2 planes to guard it, the combined fleet will have something like 2 Sub, 2 DD, 2 CA, 3 CV, 1 BB, 2 Ftr, which is impossible for Germany to sink unless they�re going to commit their entire air force, leaving the eastern front unguarded against Russian attacks. If you see that Germany is positioning the air force to the west, just leave a few planes on the carriers, reinforcing France with, e.g., 4 fighters instead of 6. France will still be very expensive for Germany to re-claim, and Russia will make progress toward Berlin that much faster.

Note that this whole opening assumes no surviving ships in the Atlantic after German sub attacks. If (as is quite likely) the British Canadian destroyer and transport survive, that�s 15 IPC in direct savings to Britain, which you can use to purchase an additional cruiser or bomber. Alternatively, you can buy an extra transport, infantry, and artillery, letting you hit with 5 transports� worth of troops on turn 4. If instead the American Atlantic destroyer and transports survive, you can send them first to French West Africa to help preserve British income in Africa, and eventually to the Channel to reinforce France. Alternatively, you can send the ships empty to the Channel, saving the troops in Washington to defend the US west coast against Japan. Extra British infantry can load onto the American transports, and then unload onto France a turn later – there�s no special rush.

Moving into the Middlegame from this Opening

One of the benefits of this opening is that it puts Germany under extremely serious pressure before Russia even begins to collapse. Yes, Japan will be in India by turn 4 at the latest, and has a good chance to start trading the Caucusus – but Russia has excellent opportunities to preserve both a defensive perimeter and a solid income base. If Germany tries to make a serious defense of France and NW Europe, then the USSR should be able to hold or trade Moscow, Leningrad, Stalingrad, Archangel, West Russia, Vologda, and Kazakh through turn 6, earning income of at least 21 IPC. Meanwhile, by the end of turn 6, the Allies should be in Italy and the Baltics, cutting off the flow of further German troops heading east. If Germany abandons western europe in favor of an all-out Russian blitz, then Berlin should fall by turn 6. Even if Moscow falls to Japan on turn 6 or 7, the Allies will have plenty of transports and ground troops to drop into, e.g., Leningrad and Stalingrad via sea, and should be able to handily hold the line against Japan.

Anyway, those are my thoughts on how to spice up the traditional KGF. Would love to hear your feedback! Let me know how you do KGF, when you think it makes sense to go for D-Day, whether you favor American marines or American planes, etc. etc.

Please do NOT comment here about whether Kill Germany First is better or worse than Kill Japan First – please start a new thread if you want to talk about KGF v. KJF.

Fair enough, Washington and Paris are 5 spaces apart. I wouldn’t recommend building an extra carrier in the EUS just to speed up the planes for this strategy; the US doesn’t have the IPC to spare. Instead, I would say fly the planes from Washington to the English Channel, which is only 4 spaces.

MarineIguana, I’m aware of the three-step orthodox strategy of trading, stacking, and dead zoning, and it’s easy to see that planes do not trade at a profit against infantry. I’m not sure from your comment if you realize that I’m only recommending an all-planes buy for one Allied nation: the Americans. This strategy also calls for the British to buy mostly ground troops and transports, and for the Russians to buy mostly ground troops. The overall mix of Allied forces is still mostly ground troops, with a modest air force – it’s just that almost all of the air force is controlled by the Americans. True, this means that the Americans won’t be trading at a profit, but that’s OK, for two reasons. First, as long as the Allies as a whole trade at a profit, then they are on the road to victory. Second, the point of this particular turn 4 D-Day is to rapidly overwhelm the Germans by delivering more force earlier than they can handle, even if that force is exchanged at a loss. It’s OK to trade 100 Allied IPCs a turn against 60 German IPCs a turn, because Germany doesn’t have 60 IPCs a turn to keep on losing, and if you start the attack early enough, then Japan will have difficulty reinforcing Germany effectively.

What do you think of this analysis? I realize it is not the orthodox strategy, and that you generally prefer the orthodox strategy. That said, does this alternate strategy have a chance of winning? Why or why not?

DarthMaximus, thanks for your feedback. The idea of mixing in a couple of loaded American transports to make the Germans nervous about Italy is interesting, especially if the starting American transports survive G1 sub attacks. I do want to point out that the sz 11/13/8 route is actually a 3x3x3x3 shuck, because you need to keep two stacks of transports in the center sea zone – one to head back to eastern us, and one to head on to the coast of paris. Try it out on a board so you can see for yourself; it’s counter-intuitive.

The problem with waiting until turn 5 or 6 to seriously threaten France and NW Eur is that it gives the Germans time to crack Russia and make some territorial gains – Karelia, West Russia, maybe even the Caucasus. If the Germans are up 8 IPCs in Eastern Europe, then the loss of 8 IPCs in Western Europe won’t break them, especially since the Russians will be busy defending Moscow against the Japanese. By contrast, if you land a major threat on turn 4, the Russians will usually still have enough troops and enough territory to join in the attack, and a little bit of breathing room for Moscow against the Japanese, which means they can force Germany to fight a two-front war. I totally agree with you that the usual KGF strategies take three turns just to set up the shuck-shuck and then two more to get serious about attacking – this strategy is my proposal for how to go a little faster than normal.

I think US fighters buy could work if Germany tries to hold France and/or NW Europe without recognizing that Allies can attack for a profit. If Germany recognizes the situation and withdraws, allies would take an unreasonably large loss trying to land in the early (<10 rounds).

Sure, that’s a fair point – if Germany withdraws from France and NW Europe and stacks in Germany in response to your threat, then obviously you don’t just unload 4 fighters into France for Germany to feast on. Better to stockpile the planes in London, and unload infantry only into France and NW Europe. Using the extra build spots in London that you save by not needing to replace your artillery, you can build an extra British transport or two, and quickly ramp up to the ability to drop 5-6 loaded transports per turn.

If you want to pressure Germany ASAP, purchasing all bombers R1 and 2 is viable. Bombers strategic bombing trade at a slight profit.

Yes, that’s true, and very much in line with the main idea of my argument that American ferries are too slow / expensive given the size of the Atlantic. Better to send American bombers than loaded American transports, at least in the opening. My big worry about bombers is that they run into a maximum damage problem. Let’s say you max out damage on both Germany and Italy, inflicting 26 points of industrial damage against a German income of 43 IPCs (starting territories plus Karelia and Egypt, minus Northwest Europe). Germany can repair, e.g., 17 points of damage in Germany, and then have 7 build slots to spend 26 IPCs on something like 4 inf, 2 art, 1 tnk in Germany. On the next round, you can max out Germany’s damage again, but it still only costs them 17 IPCs. If Britain has to hold India and build a carrier fleet and build a transport fleet and build ground troops to get onto the mainland all by itself because America is focusing on bombers, then the earliest Britain can hope to arrive in force is turn 6, at which point the Russians have to turn around to defend Moscow from the Japanese – and then the Germans have a good chance of holding Berlin indefinitely against Britain’s marines.