German bomber strategy - How to play and How to counter

@Arthur:

Well, let’s settle this the old fashion way:  a triple A game with low luck.  I will be the Axis and you take the Allies.  I will accept any terms and conditions that you want to place.  This is our first time using triple A so we would like to keep it friendly with redos for any obvious mistake.  I want to test the strategy, not major tactical blunders/misunderstanding of the software.

Are you willing to stand behind your theories?

Hmmm, tempting.
As I said to axis-dominion already, I’m currently already playtesting another axis strategy with the time I want to give A&A.
If I’d accept I would need to put that other playtest in the freezer and I also feel axis-dominion has ‘first rights’ when it comes to strategy testing anything against this particular axis thing. I wouldn’t consider it fair (from me) to have turned down his request and then a few days later start a strategy test with some1 else ;-). Furthermore, I don’t think my theories (or yours) need proof. I know my theories about this axis strategy for what they are: theories, still. Come to life as a result of doing the math and though the math is correct, the theory may still be a paper tiger, as I already said.

Let’s say I put my other test in the freezer…
I am willing to try and find a working allied strategy against this ‘axis monster’, as a team-effort. As opposed to trying to prove a point. I am more willing to play strategy testing games like this for reasons of finding an answer together than for proving or disproving any point. I don’t like, nor believe in playing games for the latter.

So how about we bundle forces to try out some allied strategies against this set axis strategy?
ABHarris, axis-dominion and me. In A&A I still have hope, that there’s an allied answer to every axis ‘question’ (however frustrated I am becoming about how frequently ‘KJF’ turns out to be that answer). I’m not sure as to how to do this effectively with tripleA, though. Playing around the table makes this very easy: making moves as you discuss them over the maps. But that’s a little harder when playing online (and in different time-zones at that).

At this point I am not yet certain about how exactly the USA should divide its resources. Should it go put ~125IPCs into Europe, first 3 turns, with a mostly defensive stance against Japan, should it adapt a more offensive stance against Japan first, letting Europe go for a while first but then produce a bit more in Europe later, OR should it go very offensive in the Pacific for a prolonged time, only switching back to Europe after Japan is in the pocket…

Axis dominion: if ABHarris doesn’t like this we can still do it together if you like. Now that I’m ‘turned’ I shall do it or die trying ;-).

Math is too difficult in this case with too many options ten turns later.  If the answer is no, I understand.

Well, the answer is not exactly no.
I was just clarifying why I am not interested in playing a game to prove a point, but do like to play a game with the goal to find the proper answer against this. As a team effort, so not really playing against each other but more like cooperating (for as much as that is possible, of course), also including axis-dominion if he 'd like that.
Because axis-dominion asked for some strategy try outs before.

But if you don’t like a bit of cooperation in a game, that’ll be off and we could play a normal game at some other time, after I finished playtesting against that other axis strategy to my satisfaction. When that happens you’ll know it. I’ll most likely post my findings somewhere then ;-).

I would be down to play a test game more in a cooperative spirit to try to find an answer. I think it’s a good idea. You two could play it out and I’d follow along and make comments or observations in the topic. Since each turn is posted, if things start to look really bad for the allies at some point due to a bad strategic decision made earlier in the game (ie false start), you guys could restart at whatever saved point and then explore a different option (without having to actually start a new game, which would hopefully save time).

@ItIsILeClerc:

Well, the answer is not exactly no.
I was just clarifying why I am not interested in playing a game to prove a point, but do like to play a game with the goal to find the proper answer against this. As a team effort, so not really playing against each other but more like cooperating (for as much as that is possible, of course), also including axis-dominion if he 'd like that.
Because axis-dominion asked for some strategy try outs before.

But if you don’t like a bit of cooperation in a game, that’ll be off and we could play a normal game at some other time, after I finished playtesting against that other axis strategy to my satisfaction. When that happens you’ll know it. I’ll most likely post my findings somewhere then ;-).

Fair enough then, if ABH likes to play a cooperative game :-).
I have only played tripleA by mail so far, so I’m not 100% sure how to do it by forum.
From what I’ve seen I take it you need to enter threadname + your login information in TripleA. Are e-mail adresses also required?

We can discuss all other relevant settings (like what can be considered a fair bid) in the thread for it, if we are actually starting this.

Yah let’s first see if ABH is intersted. The forum play is very similar to PBEM and I can help you get that going so no worries there.

We could play a game where a player can take back a move, or revert to an earlier save point.  We can also point out blunders/mistakes that the other player is doing.  It should work where we start a thread and play semi-cooperatively.

In terms of a bid, I have played before with 16 IPC’s for the allies (limit of 1 unit per territory, placing it in areas where there are existing units).  Let me know if this is reasonable?  I have used the carrier 96 previously… an opponent was more successful with an art in Alexandria, a sub in 96, and a sub in 91.  He was able to wipe out Italy for the first 4 rounds, bringing good bang for his buck.

ok ABH and IIILC, please PM me your email addresses (that are registered with the MARTI server), and i’ll go ahead and set up a pbf (play by forum) game with a 20 bid for the allies (that’s what i’ve had against bmnielsen), and then i’ll paste the link to the topic so you guys can get started.

ABH you’ll be axis and will employ this aggressive all-bomber strat, right?

IIILC what do you want to buy with the 20 bid for the allies and where do you want the units?

@Arthur:

We could play a game where a player can take back a move, or revert to an earlier save point.  We can also point out blunders/mistakes that the other player is doing.  It should work where we start a thread and play semi-cooperatively.

In terms of a bid, I have played before with 16 IPC’s for the allies (limit of 1 unit per territory, placing it in areas where there are existing units).  Let me know if this is reasonable?  I have used the carrier 96 previously… an opponent was more successful with an art in Alexandria, a sub in 96, and a sub in 91.  He was able to wipe out Italy for the first 4 rounds, bringing good bang for his buck.

PM sent.  20 sounds reasonable.  Low luck, or standard rolls?

Okay!
This all sounds good enough to me :-).

I was already working on starting a game and created a thread here: http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=35507.0.
Thought it was +16 but +20 is fine too ;-). You finish the job then, axis-dominion, muchos gracias!
You can use the thread I ceated or create a new one, I don’t mind. I want a FTR in Malta, 1INF both in Egypt and Anglo-Sudan and an ART in Leningrad (or wherever in western Europe).

I’ll PM the mail right away.

Interesting thread.

I recall that when Global was being playtested, it was put to LH that even though bombers had been reduced to 12$ since aa50, players still strongly preferred 10$ fighters, and nobody was SBRing because it was usually overly risky.  So the average SBR damage was raised from 3.5 to 5.5.

This might have been a bit too much.  Even though SBR remains dicey and risky, it is now almost always a solid play economically, provided there aren’t better targets or there aren’t too many interceptors.  This means that as along as there are unbombed factories, bombers always have a target.

Another factor improving bombers are airbases.  Given their badass range, bombers can usually land on an airbase, which just increases their effectiveness all the more.

The main thing Allies can do to protect themselves is combine their defensive stacks–on land, at sea, and at airbases.

Know what would make this whole issue go away in a hurry, and also make the game a whole lot more fun?

That old house rule that repairs to bases do not become effective until the start of noncombat movement phase.

@variance:

Know what would make this whole issue go away in a hurry, and also make the game a whole lot more fun?

That old house rule that repairs to bases do not become effective until the start of noncombat movement phase.

What does that accomplish?

The allies could SBR West Germany and put that airbase out of commission for Germany’s combat movement phase.

http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=24751.msg1385499#new

I agree to the bid of 20 for the Allies, with the fighter in Malta, 2 infantry in Africa, and a Russian artillery.  Let the war commence.

ok guys, game is set up and ready to go:

http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=35507.0

ABH, if you’re not familiar with pbf, you make your purchase and then combat movements, and if there are any scramble, intercept, and/or OOL (order of losses) questions, then you click the “Post Move Summary” button on the right (you can always do a “File/Post PBEM/PBF Gamesave…” at any time for any reason to have the game posted (saved) to the thread), and then follow up with your question(s) on the thread. If the turn is straightforward with obvious battles (i.e. casualty selection is obvious) and doesn’t require any input from your opponent, then you just complete the turn and post only at the end of your turn.

Have fun guys. I’ll be actively observing the game and giving my 2 cents here and there as required. I encourage others who’ve been involved in this discussion to also contribute as you see things.

@Zhukov44:

Interesting thread.

I recall that when Global was being playtested, it was put to LH that even though bombers had been reduced to 12$ since aa50, players still strongly preferred 10$ fighters, and nobody was SBRing because it was usually overly risky.  So the average SBR damage was raised from 3.5 to 5.5.

This might have been a bit too much.  Even though SBR remains dicey and risky, it is now almost always a solid play economically, provided there aren’t better targets or there aren’t too many interceptors. This means that as along as there are unbombed factories, bombers always have a target.

Another factor improving bombers are airbases.  Given their badass range, bombers can usually land on an airbase, which just increases their effectiveness all the more.

The main thing Allies can do to protect themselves is combine their defensive stacks–on land, at sea, and at airbases.

You omit to mention also that Fg interceptor was reduced to @1 also.
While StB was given @1 attack also.
And finally, after A&A50,
IC’s AA gun @1 was fired after interception phase and against StBs only,
instead of before the interception phase and against all StBs and escorting Fgs.

So many changes were made by Larry H. to entice SBR.

Personally, I believe he shouldn’t have lowered the Fighter interceptors to @1.
@2 could have work better to gives a little advantage to the defender.
I would even agree to give StB 2D6 damage instead of D6+2 (7 IPCs on average instead of 5.5 IPCs), if only agree to raise the Fighter defense to @2.
And this will not be unbalancing on a statistical POV.
If you wish to compare with OOB G40 SBR, you will see that OOB was still more advantageous than giving 2D6 damage against Fg Def@2.

Global 1940 SBR HRules SBR damage 1D6+2 / Interceptor Def @2

Global40 SBR HRules : 1 StB doing SBR without interceptor, damage 1D6+2         / HR SBR = Damage 2D6 (avg 7 IPCs)
Sum: + 4.583 - 2 = +2.583 IPCs damage/SBR run                                                Sum: + 5.833 - 2 = +3.833 IPCs damage/SBR run

G40 SBR HRules :1 StB A1 regular vs 1 Fg D2
Sum: + 4.723 - 5.333 = - 0.61 IPC. damage/SBR run                                            Sum: + 5.556 - 5.333 = + 0.223 IPC. damage/SBR run

G40 SBR HR: 1 StB A1 regular doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
Sum: +3.704- 7.556 = - 3.852 IPCs damage/SBR run                                            Sum: +4.260- 7.556 = - 3.296 IPCs damage/SBR run

G40 SBR HR: 1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
Sum: + 7.408 - 8.667 = - 1.259 IPC damage/SBR run                                            Sum: + 8.519 - 8.667 = - 0.148 IPC damage/SBR run

G40 SBR HR: 2 StBs A1 regular doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
Sum: +9.445 - 10.667 = - 1.222 IPCs damage/SBR run                                          Sum: +11.112 - 10.667 = + 0.445 IPCs damage/SBR run

G40 HR: 1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D2
Sum: + 7.639 - 5.333 = + 2.306 IPCs damage/SBR run                                            Sum: + 8.889 - 5.333 = + 3.556 IPCs damage/SBR run

G40 SBR HR: 2 StBs A1 regular doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D2          
Sum: +10.639 - 7.334 = + 3.304 IPCs damage/SBR run                                           Sum: +12.722 - 7.334 = + 5.388 IPCs damage/SBR run

@Baron:

To give everyone an opportunity to make his own mind about which SBR rules is his prefered one, and their impact and odds, here is a complete summary of all the calc results about various SBR rules with different combination of units:

OOB G40 SBR: damage: 1D6+2
1 StB doing SBR without interceptor
Sum: +4.583 - 2 = +2.583 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 StB A1 against 1 Fg D1
Sum: + 5.486 - 3.667 = + 1.819 IPC damage/SBR run

1 StB A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1
Sum: + 4.85 - 5.056 = - 0.206 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1
Sum: +7.775 - 5.33 = + 2.445 IPCs damage/SBR run

2 StBs A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1
Sum: +10.973 - 7.334 = + 3.639 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D1
Sum: + 7.639 - 3.667 = + 3.972 IPCs damage/SBR run

2 StBs A1 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D1
Sum: +11.459 - 5.666 = + 5.793 IPCs damage/SBR run

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Here is a link to NightBombing SBR various approach and stats:
http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=33329.msg1280598#msg1280598

@Baron:

Comparison of this HR with Triple A SBR for 1942.2 and below with the OOB SBR optional escort and intercept rules of 1942 2nd edition

HRules with StB A0 and Fg A1 D1 : damage 1D6+2                   Triple A SBR for 1942.2: all planes A1 D1, damage 1D6

1 St Bomber doing SBR against no interceptor                                                                            1 StB doing SBR without interceptor
Sum: + 4.583 - 2 = +2.583 IPCs damage/SBR run                                                                     Sum: +2.917 - 2 = +0.917 IPC damage/SBR run

1 St Bomber A0 doing SBR against 1 interceptor D1                                                                    1 StB A1 against 1 Fg D1
Sum: + 3.819 - 3.667 = + 0.152 IPC. damage/SBR run                                                              Sum: +3.69 - 3.667 = + 0.023 IPC damage/SBR run

1 St Bomber A0 doing SBR against 2 interceptors D1                                                                   1 StB A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1
Sum: + 3.183 - 5.056 = - 1.873 IPC. damage/SBR run                                                               Sum: + 2.025 - 5.056 = - 3.031 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 Fighter A1 and 1 Strategic Bomber A0 doing SBR against 2 interceptors D1                    1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1
Sum: + 6.123 - 5.334 = + 0.789 IPC damage/SBR run                                                              Sum: +6.155 - 5.33 = + 0.825 IPC damage/SBR run

2 St Bombers A0 doing SBR against 2 interceptors D1                                                      2 StBs A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1
Sum: + 7.639 - 7.334 = + 0.305 IPCs damage/SBR run                                                             Sum: +8.195 - 7.334 = + 0.861 IPC damage/SBR run

1 Fighter A1 and 1 St Bomber A0 doing SBR against 1 interceptor D1                                1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D1
Sum: + 6.250 - 3.667 = + 2.583 IPC damage/SBR run                                                              Sum: + 5.973 - 3.667 = + 2.306 IPCs damage/SBR run

2 Strategic Bombers A0 doing SBR against 1 interceptor D1                                             2 StBs A1 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D1
Sum: + 8.403 - 5.666 = + 2.737 IPCs damage/SBR run                                                             Sum: +8.403 - 5.666 = + 2.737 IPCs damage/StB
http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=34118.msg1311986#msg1311986

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OOB SBR rules for 1942.2: Fg and StB attack @1 first strike and Fg defend @2
1 StB doing SBR without interceptor damage: 1D6
Sum: + 2.917 - 2 = +0.917 IPC damage/SBR run

1 StB A1 first strike against 1 Fg D2
Sum: + 3.8 - 4.8 = - 1 IPC damage/SBR run

1 StB A1 first strike doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2 / damage 1D6
Sum: + 3.071 - 7.185 = - 4.114 IPC. damage/SBR run

1 StB & 1 Fg A1 first strike doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
Sum: + 6.018 - 7.555 = - 1.537 IPCs damage/SBR run

2 StBs A1 first strike doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
Sum: +7.547 - 9.556 = - 2.009 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 StB & 1 Fg A1 first strike doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D2
Sum: + 5.973 - 5.159 = + 0.814 IPCs damage/SBR run

2 StBs A1 first strike doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D2
Sum: + 8.214 - 6.315 = + 1.899 IPCs damage/SBR run

There is many statistical tables in this thread to compare with various SBR system.
http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=34118.msg1311386#msg1311386

1942.2 SBR House Rules :
1 StB doing SBR without interceptor, damage 1D6+2
Sum: + 4.583 - 2 = +2.583 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 StB A1 regular vs 1 Fg D2
Sum: + 4.723 - 5.333 = - 0.61 IPC. damage/SBR run

1 StB A1 regular doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
Sum: +3.704 - 7.556 = - 3.852 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 StB & 1 Fg A1 first strike (due to combined arms with Fg escort) doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
Sum: + 7.554 - 7.564 = - 0.01 IPC damage/SBR run

2 StBs A1 regular doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
Sum: +9.445 - 10.667 = - 1.222 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 StB & 1 Fg A1 first strike (due to combined arms with Fg escort) doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D2
Sum: + 7.639 - 5.159 = + 2.48 IPCs damage/SBR run

2 StBs A1 regular doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D2
Sum: +10.639 - 7.334 = + 3.304 IPCs damage/SBR run

Here is some maths evaluation to compare with other actual rules (provided in the above quote) :

Global40 SBR HRules : 1 StB doing SBR without interceptor, damage 1D6+2  / damage 2D6
5/6 StB survived * 5.5 IPCs = 4.583 IPCs                                   5/6 StB survived * 7 IPCs = + 5.833 IPCs
1/6 StB killed *12 IPCs = -2 IPCs

Sum: + 4.583 - 2 = +2.583 IPCs damage/SBR run           Sum: + 5.833 - 2 = +3.833 IPCs damage/SBR run

G40 SBR HRules :1 StB A1 regular vs 1 Fg D2

StB roll /Fg roll / AAA roll = odds casualties

1/62/66/6= 12/216 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg killed: 5.556%
1/64/61/6= 4/216 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg killed: 1.852%
1/64/65/6= 20/216 no casualty vs 1 Fg killed: 9.259%

5/62/66/6= 60/216 StB killed by Fg: 27.778%
5/64/61/6= 20/216 StB killed by AAA: 9.259%
5/64/65/6= 100/216 both survived: 46.296%

Results:
Bombard on IC 120/216= 55.556% * ((1+2)+(6+2) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 3.056 IPCs        / +7 IPCs = +3.889 IPCs
killing Fg 36/216= 16.667% *+10 IPC = + 1.667 IPC
StB killed 96/216= 44.444% *-12 IPCs = - 5.333 IPCs
Sum: + 4.723 - 5.333 = - 0.61 IPC. damage/SBR run                              Sum: + 5.556 - 5.333 = + 0.223 IPC. damage/SBR run

G40 SBR HR: 1 StB A1 regular doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2

StBs rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

1/620/366/6 = 120/1296 1 StB killed by Fg vs 1 Fg
1/616/361/6= 16/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
1/616/365/6 = 80/1296 no casualty vs 1 Fg

5/620/366/6 = 600/1296 1 StB killed by Fg vs no casualty
5/616/361/6 = 80/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
5/616/365/6 = 400/1296 no casualty at all

Results:
Bombard on IC: 480/1296= 37.037% * ((3+8) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = +2.037 IPCs                    / +7 IPCs = +2.593 IPCs
Killing 1 Fg: 216/1296= 16.667% +10 IPCs = + 1.667 IPCs
1 StB killed: 816/1296= 62.963%-12 IPCs = - 7.556 IPCs

Sum: +3.704- 7.556 = - 3.852 IPCs damage/SBR run                                  Sum: +4.260- 7.556 = - 3.296 IPCs damage/SBR run

G40 SBR HR: 1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2

StB+Fg rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties
1/364/366/6 = 24/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by Fgs vs 2 Fgs
1/3616/361/6 = 16/7776 1 Fg killed and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs
1/3616/365/6 = 80/7776 1 Fg killed vs 2 Fgs
1/3616/361/6 = 16/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs
1/3616/365/6 = 80/7776 no casualty vs 2 Fgs

10/364/366/6 = 240/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by Fgs vs 1 Fg
10/3616/361/6 = 160/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
10/3616/365/6 = 800/7776 1 Fg vs 1 Fg
10/3616/361/6= 160/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
10/3616/365/6 = 800/7776 no casualty vs 1 Fg

25/364/366/6 = 600/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by Fg vs no casualty
25/3616/361/6 = 400/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
25/3616/365/6 = 2000/7776 1 Fg vs no casualty
25/3616/361/6 = 400/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
25/3616/365/6 = 2000/7776 no casualty at all

Results:
Bombard on IC: 5760/7776= 74.07%* ((1+2)+(6+2) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 4.074 IPCs             / +7 IPCs = +5.185 IPCs
Killing 2 Fgs: 216/7776= 2.78%+20 IPCs = + 0.556 IPC
Killing 1 Fg: 2160/7776= 27.78% +10 IPCs = + 2.778 IPCs
Fg killed: 2880/7776= 37.04%-10 IPCs = - 3.704 IPCs
StB killed: 576/7776= 7.41%-12 IPCs = - 0.889 IPCs
StB & Fg killed: 1440/7776=18.52%*-22 IPCs = - 4.074 IPCs

Sum: + 7.408 - 8.667 = - 1.259 IPC damage/SBR run                                  Sum: + 8.519 - 8.667 = - 0.148 IPC damage/SBR run

G40 SBR HR: 2 StBs A1 regular doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2

StBs rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

1/364/3636/36 = 144/46656 2 StBs killed by Fg vs 2 Fgs: 0.309%
1/3616/366/36 = 96/46656 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : 0.206%
1/3616/3630/36 = 480/46656 1 StB killed by Fg vs 2 Fgs : 1.029%
1/3616/361/36 = 16/46656 2 StBs killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : 0.034%
1/3616/3610/36 = 160/46656 1 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : 0.343%
1/3616/3625/36 = 400/46656 no casualty vs 2 Fgs : 0.857%

10/364/3636/36 = 1440/46656 2 StBs killed by Fg vs 1 Fg: 3.086%
10/3616/366/36 = 960/46656 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 2.058%
10/3616/3630/36 = 4800/46656 1 StB killed by Fg vs 1 Fg : 10.288%
10/3616/361/36= 160/46656 2 StBs killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 0.343%
10/3616/3610/36= 1600/46656 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 3.429%
10/3616/3625/36 = 4000/46656 no casualty vs 1 Fg : 8.573%

25/364/3636/36 = 3600/46656 2 StBs killed by Fg vs no casualty : 7.716%
25/3616/366/36 = 2400/46656 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 5.144%
25/3616/3630/36 = 12000/46656 1 StBs killed by Fg vs no casualty : 25.72%
25/3616/361/36 = 400/46656 2 StBs killed by AAA vs no casualty : 0.857%
25/3616/3610/36 = 4000/46656 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 8.573%
25/3616/3625/36 = 10000/46656 no casualty at all : 21.433%

Results:
2x Bombard on IC: 14400/46656= 30.864% * ((6+16) IPCs)/2= +11 IPCs) = + 3.395 IPCs                     / +14 IPCs= + 4.321 IPCs
1x Bombard on IC: 23040/46656= 49.383% * ((3+8) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = +2.716 IPCs                       / +7 IPCs = + 3.457 IPCs
Killing 2 Fgs: 1296/46656= 2.778%+20 IPCs = + 0.556 IPC
Killing 1 Fg: 12960/46656= 27.778% +10 IPCs = + 2.778 IPCs
2 StBs killed: 9216/46656= 19.753%-24 IPCs = - 4.741 IPCs
1 StB killed: 23040/46656= 49.383%-12 IPCs = - 5.926 IPCs

Sum: +9.445 - 10.667 = - 1.222 IPCs damage/SBR run                                     Sum: +11.112 - 10.667 = + 0.445 IPCs damage/SBR run

G40 HR: 1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D2

StB+Fg rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

11/362/61/6= 22/1296 1 Fg killed and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
11/362/65/6= 110/1296 1 Fg killed vs 1 Fg
11/364/61/6= 44/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
11/364/65/6 = 220/1296 no casualty vs 1 Fg

25/362/61/6 = 50/1296 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
25/362/65/6 = 250/1296 1 Fg vs no casualty
25/364/61/6 = 100/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
25/364/65/6 = 500/1296 no casualty at all

Results:
Bombard on IC: 1080/1296 = 83.333% * ((1+2)+(6+2) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 4.583 IPCs                               / +7 IPCs = + 5.833 IPCs
Killing 1 Fg: 396/1296 = 30.556% +10 IPCs = + 3.056 IPCs
Fg killed: 360/1296 = 27.778%-10 IPCs = - 2.778 IPCs
StB killed: 144/1296 = 11.111%-12 IPCs = - 1.333 IPCs
StB & Fg killed: 72/1296 = 5.556%-22 IPCs = - 1.222 IPCs

Sum: + 7.639 - 5.333 = + 2.306 IPCs damage/SBR run                                    Sum: + 8.889 - 5.333 = + 3.556 IPCs damage/SBR run

G40 SBR HR: 2 StBs A1 regular doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D2

StBs rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

11/362/66/36 = 132/7776 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
11/362/630/36 = 660/7776 1 StB killed by Fg vs 1 Fg
11/364/61/36 = 44/7776 2 StBs killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
11/364/610/36 = 440/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
11/364/625/36 = 1100/7776 no casualty vs 1 Fg

25/362/66/36 = 300/7776 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
25/362/630/36 = 1500/7776 1 StBs killed by Fg vs no casualty
25/364/61/36 = 100/7776 2 StBs killed by AAA vs no casualty
25/364/610/36 = 1000/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
25/364/625/36 = 2500/7776 no casualty at all

Results:
2x Bombard on IC: 3600/7776= 46.296% * ((6+16) IPCs)/2= +11 IPCs) = + 5.093 IPCs                                 / +14 IPCs= + 6.481 IPCs
1x Bombard on IC: 3600/7776= 46.296% * ((3+8) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 2.546 IPCs                                   / +7 IPCs = + 3.241 IPCs
Killing 1 Fg: 2332/7776= 29.999% +10 IPCs = + 3.00 IPCs
2 StBs killed: 576/7776= 7.407%-24 IPCs = - 1.778 IPCs
1 StB killed: 3600/7776= 46.296%*-12 IPCs = - 5.556 IPCs

Sum: +10.639 - 7.334 = + 3.304 IPCs damage/SBR run                                   Sum: +12.722 - 7.334 = + 5.388 IPCs damage/SBR run

From all the maths above we can pick this single one feature:
The OOB G40 SBR:

1 StB A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1
Sum: + 4.85 - 5.056 = - 0.206 IPCs damage/SBR run

This means that 1 single Strategic Bomber can do SBR against as much as 2 Fighters ! and this keeps the odds even.
There would be the same odds of loosing IPCS than making damage to the enemy!

A pretty heavy advantage which can also explain why StBombers Spamming can worth the money.
This also show that even at this 1 StB (12 IPCs) : 2 Fgs (20 IPCs) ratio, it is not the best for the defender to make interception.
Interception is only the least worst options.
And sometimes, according to the number of STBs making the raids, it can be more profitable to stay on the ground and not intercept since you can easily lose more in Fighter units and damage than letting the damage maxed out on the IC…

I believe the G40 OOB SBR and interception rules is too much in favor of the attacker here.
This is because the OOB rules unrealistically (unhistorically) put Fighter at the same level against Bombers.
That can be part of the explanation why StBs buying can be very optimal.

I rather prefer something like this one, which seems more balanced.
It is a slightly modified version of 1942.2 SBR rules with upgraded damaged for STB.

1942.2 SBR House Rules :
1 StB doing SBR damage 1D6+2
1 StB & 1 Fg A1 first strike (due to combined arms with Fg escort) doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
Sum: + 7.554 - 7.564 = - 0.01 IPC damage/SBR run

This is much even for cost investment against SBR:
1 StB and 1 Fg (22 IPCs) can be countered with 2 Fgs (20 IPCs).

So, from my last post, I can provide a simple fix to the issue of SBR being too much OP.

Apply the OOB 1942.2 escort and intercept rules while keeping the damage value of Strat Bombers and Tac Bombers.

Gives to all Fighters / Strat Bombers / Tac Bombers
Attack @1 First Strike.
Keep damage as G40 OOB: 1D6+2 for StB and 1D6 for TcB.
Fighter Defend @2.

Here is a discussion on the variant I showed in the last post.
1942.2 Strategic Bombing Raid SBR, Bombers and escorts, Interceptors vs triple A
http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=34118.msg1311386#msg1311386

Each escorting Fighter have preemptive first strike A1 but also gives a combined arms effect to all escorted bombers, which get A1 preemptive roll.
It only needs 1 Fighter unit amongst the attacker SBR fleet to give all bombers their preemptive strike A1.
When all by themselves, bombers only get a regular attack @1.

That’s the small variants compared to OOB 1942.2 SBR rules, giving all StBs A1 First Strike.

1942.2 SBR HR #1 OOB + Higher damage for StB
1 StB doing SBR without interceptor damage: 1D6+2
Sum: 4.583 - 2 = +2.583 IPCs damage/StB run

1 StB A1 first strike vs 1 Fg D2
Sum: 4.977 - 4.778 = + 0.199 IPC damage/StB

1 StB A1 first strike doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
Sum: + 3.874 - 7.185 = - 3.311 IPCs damage/SBR

1 StB & 1 Fg A1 first strike doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
Sum: 7.554 - 7.555 = - 0.001 IPC damage/StB

2 StBs A1 first strike doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
Sum: +9.954 - 9.556 = - 0.002 IPC damage/StB

1 StB & 1 Fg A1 first strike doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D2
Sum: + 7.639 - 5.159 = + 2.480 IPCs damage/SBR run

2 StBs A1 first strike doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D2
Sum: + 11.162 - 6.315 = + 4.847 IPCs damage/SBR run

1942.2 SBR House Rules #2 : StB A1 Dmg 1D6+2, gets First Strike if escorted by at least 1 Fighter
1 StB doing SBR without interceptor, damage 1D6+2
Sum: + 4.583 - 2 = +2.583 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 StB A1 regular vs 1 Fg D2
Sum: + 4.723 - 5.333 = - 0.61 IPC damage/SBR run

1 StB A1 regular doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
Sum: +3.704 - 7.556 = - 3.852 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 StB & 1 Fg A1 first strike (due to combined arms with Fg escort) doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
Sum: + 7.557 - 7.556 = +0.001 IPC damage/SBR run

2 StBs A1 regular doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2
Sum: +9.445 - 10.667 = - 1.222 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 StB & 1 Fg A1 first strike (due to combined arms with Fg escort) doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D2
Sum: + 7.639 - 5.159 = + 2.48 IPCs damage/SBR run

2 StBs A1 regular doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D2
Sum: +10.639 - 7.334 = + 3.304 IPCs damage/SBR run

G40 OOB SBR:                                                 / 1942.2 SBR HR #1, OOB+ Higher damage: 1D6+2 /               1942.2 SBR HR #2
1 StB doing SBR without interceptor
Sum: +4.583 - 2 = +2.583 IPCs damage/SBR run                                                      Same                                                              Same

1 StB A1 against 1 Fg D1 damage: 1D6+2                                1 StB A1 first strike vs 1 Fg D2                            /     1 StB A1 regular vs 1 Fg D2
Sum: + 5.486 - 3.667 = + 1.819 IPCs damage/SBR run            +4.977 - 4.778 = + 0.199 IPC                          /   +4.723 - 5.333 = - 0.61 IPC damage/SBR run

1 StB A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1
Sum: + 4.85 - 5.056 = - 0.206 IPC damage/SBR run           +3.874 - 7.185 = - 3.311 IPCs damage/SBR run     / +3.704 - 7.556 = - 3.852 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1
Sum: +7.775 - 5.33 = + 2.445 IPCs damage/SBR run           +7.554 - 7.555 = - 0.001 IPC damage/SBR run     /  +7.554 - 7.564 = - 0.01 IPC damage/SBR run

2 StBs A1 doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D1
Sum: +10.973 - 7.334 = + 3.639 IPCs damage/SBR run       +9.954 - 9.556 = - 0.002 IPC damage/SBR run     /  +9.445 - 10.667 = - 1.222 IPCs damage/SBR run

1 StB & 1 Fg A1 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D1
Sum: + 7.639 - 3.667 = + 3.972 IPCs damage/SBR run            +7.639 - 5.159 = + 2.480 IPCs damage/SBR run   /   +7.639 - 5.159 = + 2.48 IPCs damage/SBR run

2 StBs A1 doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fg D1
Sum: +11.459 - 5.666 = + 5.793 IPCs damage/SBR run           +11.162 - 6.315 = + 4.847 IPCs damage/SBR run    /   +10.639 - 7.334 = +3.304 IPCs damage/SBR run

1942.2 OOB SBR with higher damage for StB : 1 StB doing SBR without interceptor damage: 1D6+2
5/6 StB survived * 5.5 IPCs = 4.583 IPCs
1/6 StB killed *12 IPCs = -2 IPCs
Sum: 4.583 - 2 = +2.583 IPCs damage/StB run

1 StB A1 first strike vs 1 Fg D2

StB roll /Fg roll / AAA roll = odds casualties

161= 6/216 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg killed: 3%
165= 30/216 no casualty vs 1 Fg killed: 14%

526= 60/216 StB killed by Fg: 28%
541= 20/216 StB killed by AAA: 9%
545= 100/216 both survived: 46%

Results:
Bombard on IC 130/216 = 60.185% * ((3+8 IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 3.310 IPCs
Killing Fg  36/216 = 16.667% *+10 IPC = + 1.667 IPC
StB killed 86/216 =39.815%  *-12 IPCs = - 4.778 IPCs
Sum: 4.977 - 4.778 = + 0.199 IPC damage/StB

1 StB A1 first strike doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2 / damage 1D6+2

StB roll /Fg roll / AAA roll = odds casualties

112/366= 72/1296 1 StB killed by Fg vs 1 Fg killed
124/361= 24/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg killed
124/365= 120/1296 no casualty vs 1 Fg killed

520/366= 600/1296 StB killed by Fg vs no casualty
516/361= 80/1296 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
516/365= 400/1296 no casualty at all

Results:
Bombard on IC 520/1296= 40.123% * ((3+8 IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 2.207 IPCs
killing 1 Fg 216/1296= 16.667% +10 IPC = + 1.667 IPC
StB killed 776/1296 = 59.877%-12 IPCs = - 7.185 IPCs
Sum: + 3.874 - 7.185 = - 3.311 IPCs damage/SBR

1 StB A1 first strike & 1 Fg A1 first strike doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2

StB+Fg rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

1/3636/361/6 = 36/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : .5%
1/3636/365/6 = 180/7776 no casualty vs 2 Fgs : 2.3%

10/3612/361/6 = 120/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 1.5%
10/3612/365/6 = 600/7776 1 Fg vs 1 Fg : 7.7%
10/3624/361/6= 240/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 3.1%
10/3624/365/6 = 1200/7776 no casualty vs 1 Fg : 15.4%

25/364/366/6 = 600/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by Fg vs no casualty : 7.7%
25/3616/361/6 = 400/7776 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 5.2%
25/3616/365/6 = 2000/7776 1 Fg vs no casualty : 25.7%
25/3616/361/6 = 400/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 5.2%
25/3616/365/6 = 2000/7776 no casualty at all : 25.7%

Results:
Bombard on IC: 5980/7776= 76.903% * ((3+8) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = +4.223 IPCs
Killing 2 Fgs: 216/7776= 2.778%+20 IPCs = + 0.556 IPC
Killing 1 Fg: 2160/7776= 27.778% +10 IPCs = + 2.778 IPCs
Fg killed:  2600/7776 = 33.436%-10 IPCs = - 3.344 IPCs
StB killed: 676/7776= 8.693%-12 IPCs = - 1.043 IPCs
StB & Fg killed: 1120/7776= 14.403%*-22 IPCs = - 3.169 IPCs

Sum: 7.557 - 7.556 = + 0.001 IPCs damage/StB

2 StBs A1 first strike doing SBR against 2 intercepting Fgs D2

StBs rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

1/3636/361/36 = 36/46656 2 StBs killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : 0.077%
1/3636/3610/36 = 360/46656 1 StB killed by AAA vs 2 Fgs : 0.772%
1/3636/3625/36 = 900/46656 no casualty vs 2 Fgs : 1.929%

10/3612/366/36 = 720/46656 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 1.543%
10/3612/3630/36 = 3600/46656 1 StB killed by Fg vs 1 Fg : 7.716%
10/3624/361/36= 240/46656 2 StBs killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 0.514%
10/3624/3610/36= 2400/46656 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 5.144%
10/3624/3625/36 = 6000/46656 no casualty vs 1 Fg : 12.86%

25/364/3636/36 = 3600/46656 2 StBs killed by Fg vs no casualty : 7.716%
25/3616/366/36 = 2400/46656 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 5.144%
25/3616/3630/36 = 12000/46656 1 StBs killed by Fg vs no casualty : 25.72%
25/3616/361/36 = 400/46656 2 StBs killed by AAA vs no casualty : 0.857%
25/3616/3610/36 = 4000/46656 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 8.573%
25/3616/3625/36 = 10000/46656 no casualty at all : 21.433%

Results:
2x Bombard on IC: 16900/46656= 36.222% * ((6+16) IPCs)/2= +11 IPCs) = + 3.984 IPCs
1x Bombard on IC: 22360/46656= 47.925% * ((3+8) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = +2.636 IPCs
Killing 2 Fgs: 2.778%+20 IPCs = + 0.556 IPC
Killing 1 Fg: 27.778% +10 IPCs = + 2.778 IPCs
2 StBs killed: 7396/46656= 15.852%-24 IPCs = - 3.805 IPCs
1 StB killed: 22360/46656= 47.925%-12 IPCs = - 5.751 IPCs

Sum: +9.954 - 9.556 = - 0.002 IPCs damage/StB

1 StB & 1 Fg A1 first strike doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D2

StB+Fg rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

11/366/61/6= 66/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg
11/366/65/6 = 330/1296 no casualty vs 1 Fg

25/362/61/6 = 50/1296 1 Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
25/362/65/6 = 250/1296 1 Fg vs no casualty
25/364/61/6 = 100/1296 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty
25/364/65/6 = 500/1296 no casualty at all

Results:
Bombard on IC: 1080/1296 = 83.333% * ((3+8) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = + 4.583 IPCs
Killing 1 Fg: 396/1296 = 30.556% +10 IPCs = + 3.056 IPCs
Fg killed: 300/1296 = 23.148%-10 IPCs = - 2.31 IPCs
StB killed: 216/1296 = 16.667%-12 IPCs = - 2 IPCs
StB & Fg killed: 50/1296 = 3.858%-22 IPCs = - 0.849 IPCs

Sum: + 7.639 - 5.159 = + 2.480 IPCs damage/SBR run

2 StBs A1 first strike doing SBR against 1 intercepting Fgs D2

StBs rolls/interceptors Fgs roll/ AAA roll = odds casualties

11/366/61/36 = 66/7776 2 StBs killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 0.849%
11/366/610/36 = 660/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs 1 Fg : 8.488%
11/366/625/36 = 1650/7776 no casualty vs 1 Fg : 21.219%

25/362/66/36 = 300/7776 1 StB killed by Fg and 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 3.858%
25/362/630/36 = 1500/7776 1 StBs killed by Fg vs no casualty : 19.29%
25/364/61/36 = 100/7776 2 StBs killed by AAA vs no casualty : 1.286%
25/364/610/36 = 1000/7776 1 StB killed by AAA vs no casualty : 12.86%
25/364/625/36 = 2500/7776 no casualty at all : 32.15%

Results:
2x Bombard on IC: 4150/7776= 53.369% * ((6+16) IPCs)/2= +11 IPCs) = + 5.871 IPCs
1x Bombard on IC: 3160/7776= 40.638% * ((3+8) IPCs)/2= +5.5 IPCs) = +2.235 IPCs
Killing 1 Fg: 2376/7776 = 30.556% +10 IPCs = + 3.056 IPCs
2 StBs killed: 466/7776= 5.993%-24 IPCs = - 1.438 IPCs
1 StB killed: 3160/7776= 40.638%*-12 IPCs = - 4.877 IPCs

Sum: + 11.162 - 6.315 = + 4.847 IPCs damage/SBR run

Those are some great stats….  :-o

I hate to be a buzzkill, but this thread started by discussing a German bomber strategy.  It somehow has degraded into the merits of SBR’s versus not SBR-ing.  Well, in my games, I rarely SBR with the bombers (if there is going to be no interception, then I may go for that when convenient, but it’s not a central part of the strategy).  The power of the bombers is numbers, not SBR’s.  If you want to SBR, you really don’t need 18 bombers…

I have hit the UK to clear it of all land/air units with the bombers – your SBR rule differences don’t change that dynamic.

I really, really like the idea of not being able to repair bases until the end of the turn (or during noncombat, or whatever).  But again, this isn’t a house rules thread. ;)

The power of the bombers is not by sacrificing them for petty things.  It’s the projection of threats across Europe.  And the more bombers that exist, the more threat that is projected…