Nice summary MarineIguana
I still maintain that the advantage of KGF over KJF in the deep endgame is fairly evident just by looking at the mapboard itself in the most basic terms…
There is more total income and 3 capitals (Berlin, London and Moscow) in contention in the area around Germany, and only 2 in contention in the area around Japan (Tokyo and Moscow). So if you want to set up an endgame with the best chance of total victory as Allies, it makes sense to “cover” the region that ultimately has more at stake. By playing the KGF game you are essentially taking London out of contention for the duration, whereas if you play KJF you are potentially putting this capital back into play. I think it is very important for the Axis to prevent the Allies from gaining complete dominance of the ocean at any point (whether in a KGF or KJF situation), one Axis power needs to drop ships at some point, or at least retain a naval presence. This is because there is not enough total income in Eurasia, even after Moscow falls, for Axis to dominate the globe without a navy either in the Atlantic or Pacific. There is just too much coastline to cover, and, while the production in Eurasia appears adequate, total income and proximity (i.e. speed getting units to the front line) is often not adequate enough to expand beyond Eurasia (specifically into Africa) when the Axis have no navy left on the board. This may factor into your decisions about which units to purchase as Axis, for defense in either theater (e.g. more subs, or more fighters + carriers.) I tend to favor subs early to establish a defense around the carrier core, then fighters to give that core a greater attack potential.
After a certain point, the movement advantage (and the ability to defend land territories as well as carrier decks) makes the fighter more attractive. Basically the fighter gives you more attack/counter-attack flexibility, since a single deck can bring 4 fighters into an attack by switching out positions e.g. land based fighters to carrier decks, and carrier based fighters to land territories. Most people will concede defeat after Moscow falls, but if you play Allies with a masochist’s determination it is possible to recover from the loss of Moscow, provided you control the sea, and trade capitals within a round, or maintain overall income or unit parity in the theater you chose to concentrate with Allies. I call this the slow grind for Allies, and it demonstrates why the mapboard itself favors KGF over KJF in the long run…
More coastal production, more total income, more Capitals in the Atlantic/European theater than there are in the Pacific. Everything else being equal (which it may not, depending on the specific game) it is generally “safer” to Kill Germany First, than it is to Kill Japan First. That said, the safe game is not necessarily the most entertaining game. You can still lose an ultra conservative KGF game and then maybe regret that you didn’t try something more insane in the Pacific after you’ve already sunk a dozen hours into the thing ;)
My advice for either game, whether KJF and KGF, is to hold the center for as long as possible, and when you know it can’t hold anymore then start preparing for its final collapse. Trading capitals, overall income, and ships at sea, post center collapse (when the Axis control Moscow) are a way you can still win with Allies, (esp. because occupied formerly Russian territory can be taken directly rather than liberated per the rules, until the capital is recovered.) In this sort of endgame situation, I’d probably rather have my fleets and production concentrated on the Atlantic as Axis, which is why, as Allies I would hope to deny Axis this option, hence KGF at the outset.