Countering Operation Sea Lion

[DarthMaximus]

If I did the numbers right, here are the approx odds for tech (getting at least 1 hit):

1 die - 17%
2 dice - 30%
3 dice - 42%
4 dice - 51%
5 dice - 60%
6 dice - 66%
7 dice - 72%
8 dice - 76%

So, it is bad to assume someone will spend 40 ipc on dice, since you don’t really gain that much of an advantage over just spending 35 or even 30.  What is probably more likely is someone spending 15 to 25 ipc on dice (3 to 5 rolls), in which they take the shot but still have 15 to 25 other ipc to spend on units.

That being said, while losing London is bad, it is not necessarily a game ender for the Allies.  The reason being (assume you need to wait for the US to liberate) with the loss of the UK 1 buy all you lose is possibly 1 AC and 1 trn (fairly common buy for UK in some circumstances).  But you don’t need to “re-buy” (or buy) the AC later b/c you should have 2 BB’s floating around (plus US capital ships) and an extremely weak German airforce.
The loss of the UK 2 buy is bad, but again this is usually spent on 1-2 trns (maybe inf/planes) and used to go to Afr.  But you shouldn’t need immediate help in Afr on UK2 anyway b/c Egy is an easy counter and you’ll have 2 inf (aus/nz) ready to land on UK 3 plus the US can still land on US 2.

The Allies will certainly need Russia and the US to be playing well to cover for the lack of UK units but there other times not involving Sealion where the UK can be hit with massive losses early and the Allies still win.

Take a sz 5 attack with 2 ftrs, 1 bom.  Say UK misses and Germany gets the double hit.
UK will usually lose its med fleet (BB/DD) for the cost of a sub, and 33% of the time Germany can clear pretty much wol.
Also consider a failed first time bombimg run is a loss of a bomber right there (15 ipc for nothing).

Again I’m not saying losing London is advantageous for the Allies or doesn’t matter, just that is isn’t necessarily game over either.  Certainly the advantage takes a big shift to the Axis to win the game but the Allies still have a chance to comeback.

[axis_roll]

@DarthMaximus:

That being said, while losing London is bad, it is not necessarily a game ender for the Allies.  The reason being (assume you need to wait for the US to liberate) with the loss of the UK 1 buy all you lose is possibly 1 AC and 1 trn (fairly common buy for UK in some circumstances).  But you don’t need to “re-buy” (or buy) the AC later b/c you should have 2 BB’s floating around (plus US capital ships) and an extremely weak German airforce.
The loss of the UK 2 buy is bad, but again this is usually spent on 1-2 trns (maybe inf/planes) and used to go to Afr.  But you shouldn’t need immediate help in Afr on UK2 anyway b/c Egy is an easy counter and you’ll have 2 inf (aus/nz) ready to land on UK 3 plus the US can still land on US 2.

You miss that the ORIGINAL UK units are also all gone (2 inf,art,tank and air force).

If UK can not add units until UK3, that is much larger than you are implying, IMHO.

PLUS any smart German player will realize on G1 IF their LRA tech roll is successful that they should probably buy at least 1 if not 2 transports to RETAKE UK G2 after US has liberated it.

That, my friend, IS game over.

Unless Russia has bought all tanks on R1 and pushes like a mother R2 into Ukraine/belo or karelia… but EVEN THEN, Germany should be able to weather than allied pressure.

[DarthMaximus]

I’d be willing to test this scenerio with anyone that wishes to play as the Axis.  I would of course play the Allies.

R1 would be as follows with no fore knowledge of Sea Lion:

Buy 2 inf, 2 rt, 2 arm (common for my play)
Combat - Wrus with 9 inf, 1 rt, 1 arm, Ukr with 3 inf, 1 rt, 3 arm, 2 ftrs

Results: 
Wrus taken with 6 inf, 1 rt, 1 arm
Ukr taken with 3 arm, 2 ftrs

Both standard results (using LL and everything hits on 3 or above).

I’ll Non-Com everything West (again very standard in all my games)
sub to sz 2, aa to wrus, I’ll even make sure the ftrs are out of range of London on R2 by landing in Cauc.

Summary

Wrus - 6 inf, 1 rt, 1 arm, aa
Ukr - 3 arm
Cauc - 4 inf, 2 rt, 2 ftrs, aa, ic
Mos - 4 inf, 2 arm, ic
Novo - 2 inf
Yak - 4 inf
Sz 2 - sub with uk ships

Germany’s turn.

They must spend 25 on dice (giving them a 60% chance to get).  They of course will automatically get LRA for this 25.

Germany must attack London with 1 inf, 1 arm, 5 ftrs, 1 bom.

Results:  Germany takes with 1 arm.
They lose all aircraft - 1 ftr shot down due to aa, and the rest lost trying to preserve the Arm.  (Again this is all standard and avg results with LL or even Frood)

Germany plunders the 30 ipc.

The rest of your G1 purchases/combat/non-com moves are up to you and subject to dice rolls just like a normal game.

Some things in this set up may be negotiable I haven’t looked too closely at it and may have missed a unit here or there.

I would define success for the Allies in the following ways:

1 - No Success - Allies are completely overwhelmed from the loss of London and on their heels all game.  Perhaps Moscow has even fallen, but it is obviously over by rd 4-5.

2 - Limited Success - Allies make it to rd 6-8 and still putting up a fight.  They might be losing the game but UK is back in it and all three Allied capitals are still in Allied hands.

3 - Success - Allies make it to rd 9-10 and are still fighting.  The Allies have recoverd from losing London and the game has turned into a “normal” dogfight.

4 - Great Success - The Allies hold on and win the game.

Personally, as the Allies, if I did lose London on turn 1 I’d be happy with any one of the last 3 definitions in that I gave myself a chance to comeback, but for the sake of this test I’ll be shooting for one of the last two.

We also don’t have to play the entire game, just a few rds to see how things shake out.

I’m actually kind of curious about this since I’ve never played with Tech or OOB rules.

[Crazy Ivan]

Actually, I did suffer a sealion invasion once. Germany lost all its’ planes and an Inf, leaving it’s tank.
the two UK BBs sank the invasion fleet, and with the Russian sub, blocked any further attempt to retake on G2.
USA liberated London.
Germany lost more IPCs than they gained; Baltic fleet, 5 fighters, bomber, tank and inf.
I won the game, somewhere around round 8 as I recall.
Germany just could not counter very well with no Luftwaffe. And Germanys turn one buys were so small for land units that Russia was able to go on the offensive by R3. :-D

[hyogoetophile]

@Crazy:

Actually, I did suffer a sealion invasion once. Germany lost all its’ planes and an Inf, leaving it’s tank.
the two UK BBs sank the invasion fleet, and with the Russian sub, blocked any further attempt to retake on G2.
USA liberated London.
Germany lost more IPCs than they gained; Baltic fleet, 5 fighters, bomber, tank and inf.
I won the game, somewhere around round 8 as I recall.
Germany just could not counter very well with no Luftwaffe. And Germanys turn one buys were so small for land units that Russia was able to go on the offensive by R3. :-D

Obviously a bit of a hiccup, because Germany can just land one west of the Baltic and block the UK bb/trn with a sub.

How many dice did Germany spend to get LRA?

[Jennifer]

That’s what I’m getting at.  If Germany spends the money on LRA on G1, succeeds and goes all out for England, they will win England, but they will lose the game, all things being equal.

BTW, 8 dice is much better then 6 dice.  A full 10% better.  It makes a difference.

And I agree, you lose ALOT more then the Allies in that.  You lose the trades in the East against Russia, you lose the attack on Egypt allowing England into the Med, you lose your entire Luftwaffe and you, at best, slow England two turns.  Uhm, guess what?  England’s not exactly a dynamo for those two rounds ANYWAY.  They’re usually buying Carriers, tranports, liberating Africa, etc.  All of which they do not have to do now because Germany does not exist as a real threat anymore.

Can Germany put down a dozen new tanks?  Sure.  So?  By the time they actually start hammering the Russians you’ll be too busy defending Berlin against British, American and Russian invasions to do any serious attacks anyway.  Meanwhile, Russia will gladely draw your tanks out in trades and kill them off piecemeal.  You attack with INfantry, Armor, I defend with Infantry.  My counter attack kills your tank.  I win.

[tekkyy]

@the:

omg, I so recommended AGAINST 40 IPC.  See my earlier posts.  I’m not making this up, people!

NPB, I am sorry if you feel insulted
I am only talking about your comment of “fewer dice you spend on tech, the more your chance of just wasting IPC”
the timing it came sounds like you prefer 40 IPC on die than 1 or 2

if you look back you’ll see that I did note that you proposed a different Sealion
so don’t worry

now, I see we are bringing up % chance of different no. of LRA dices
I guess that means we are not on the same channel yet

what I am saying is Germany is not committed
it can go with very few LRA dice, if you get LRA you go Sealion and still have an almost normal G1 build money
if it doesn’t, you play the “normal” game with only a small disadvantage

until we get this part we are still arguing over two different things :?

[axis_roll]

@DarthMaximus:

I’d be willing to test this scenerio with anyone that wishes to play as the Axis.  I would of course play the Allies.

R1 would be as follows with no fore knowledge of Sea Lion:

Buy 2 inf, 2 rt, 2 arm (common for my play)
Combat - Wrus with 9 inf, 1 rt, 1 arm, Ukr with 3 inf, 1 rt, 3 arm, 2 ftrs

Results: 
Wrus taken with 6 inf, 1 rt, 1 arm
Ukr taken with 3 arm, 2 ftrs

Both standard results (using LL and everything hits on 3 or above).

I’ll Non-Com everything West (again very standard in all my games)
sub to sz 2, aa to wrus, I’ll even make sure the ftrs are out of range of London on R2 by landing in Cauc.

Summary

Wrus - 6 inf, 1 rt, 1 arm, aa
Ukr - 3 arm
Cauc - 4 inf, 2 rt, 2 ftrs, aa, ic
Mos - 4 inf, 2 arm, ic
Novo - 2 inf
Yak - 4 inf
Sz 2 - sub with uk ships

Germany’s turn.

They must spend 25 on dice (giving them a 60% chance to get).  They of course will automatically get LRA for this 25.

Germany must attack London with 1 inf, 1 arm, 5 ftrs, 1 bom.

Results:  Germany takes with 1 arm.
They lose all aircraft - 1 ftr shot down due to aa, and the rest lost trying to preserve the Arm.  (Again this is all standard and avg results with LL or even Frood)

Germany plunders the 30 ipc.

The rest of your G1 purchases/combat/non-com moves are up to you and subject to dice rolls just like a normal game.

Some things in this set up may be negotiable I haven’t looked too closely at it and may have missed a unit here or there.

I would define success for the Allies in the following ways:

1 - No Success - Allies are completely overwhelmed from the loss of London and on their heels all game.  Perhaps Moscow has even fallen, but it is obviously over by rd 4-5.

2 - Limited Success - Allies make it to rd 6-8 and still putting up a fight.  They might be losing the game but UK is back in it and all three Allied capitals are still in Allied hands.

3 - Success - Allies make it to rd 9-10 and are still fighting.  The Allies have recoverd from losing London and the game has turned into a “normal” dogfight.

4 - Great Success - The Allies hold on and win the game.

Personally, as the Allies, if I did lose London on turn 1 I’d be happy with any one of the last 3 definitions in that I gave myself a chance to comeback, but for the sake of this test I’ll be shooting for one of the last two.

We also don’t have to play the entire game, just a few rds to see how things shake out.

I’m actually kind of curious about this since I’ve never played with Tech or OOB rules.

This does sound like alot of fun.

I would love to try this out with you Darth.  And I get to play the infamous darth too :)
:notworthy:

You did mention negotiability with this set up.
I tink if USSR gets 3 tanks in Ukraine, then Germany should get 1 plane left in UK.

In fact, in my dice sim, I get most common outcomes of the UK 1 grab is (12%) 1 tank, 1 ftr, 1 bomber  and (12%) 1 tank, 1 bomber….

Battlemap or mapview?

[Jennifer]

Did you run that with only Inf, Arm, 4 Fighters, Bomber vs 2 Infantry, Artillery, Armor, 2 Fighters and a Bomber?

If you lose the bomber first (and assume one fighter was shot down by AA Fire) I get the following results:

Attacker results:
–------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Probability % # units / losses
  0.1% 7: 1 Inf, 1 Arm, 4 Fig, 1 Bom
  0.81% 6: 1 Arm, 4 Fig, 1 Bom 
  5.72% 5: 1 Arm, 3 Fig, 1 Bom
  17.56% 4: 1 Arm, 2 Fig, 1 Bom
  24.25% 3: 1 Arm, 1 Fig, 1 Bom
17.73% 2: 1 Arm, 1 Bom
  10.6% 1: 1 Arm
  23.23% 0: no units

Also, note, you have almost a 1 in 4 chance to lose and NOT take the capitol, despite getting the LRA technology.

[DarthMaximus]

@axis_roll:

This does sound like alot of fun.

I would love to try this out with you Darth.  And I get to play the infamous darth too :)
:notworthy:

You did mention negotiability with this set up.
I tink if USSR gets 3 tanks in Ukraine, then Germany should get 1 plane left in UK.

In fact, in my dice sim, I get most common outcomes of the UK 1 grab is (12%) 1 tank, 1 ftr, 1 bomber  and (12%) 1 tank, 1 bomber….

Battlemap or mapview?

I use Battlemap most of the time with in-house dicey.
Yeah, Germany can survive with a plane from London as well.  You can choose ftr or bom.

About the odds, I did a manual LL (for results) b/c at least with Frood it goes by standard OOL (I’m not sure how to customise ool), but most players will lose the UK bom in the first wave since it is an amphib, thus I think odds for German success can be skewd slightly if this isn’t taken into account.  The UK might only save the bom if Ger really got hammered in AA or only got like 1-2 hits.  But I don’t have a problem Germany having a plane left over as well since it will probably help with the test.

Also this will probably be a slower pace game for me with tourney and league games going on, etc.

[axis_roll]

@DarthMaximus:

I use Battlemap most of the time with in-house dicey.
Yeah, Germany can survive with a plane from London as well.  You can choose ftr or bom.

Also this will probably be a slower pace game for me with tourney and league games going on, etc.

That all sounds great.

You or I can start a thread in the board games.

The pace sounds good, I have to do a few things right now.
Maybe tonight I will do Germanys turn

If you start the thread and have a battlemap with the above described set-up, that’ll save me some time.

[DarthMaximus]

Sounds good.

I’ll create the thread and post the initial map.

[DarthMaximus]

Okay, the game thread is here:

http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=11199.0

[Ranor]

Hey Cmdr Jennifer where did you get these odds? I’ve done the battle on frood (2.0) with

1 Inf 5 Fig 1 Bom 1 Arm vs. 1 Bom 2 Inf 1 Art 1 Arm 2 Fig

(OOL as listed above) and I get the following results (with a AAGun):

Probability %   -    units
  0.12%   -   8: 1 Inf, 5 Fig, 1 Bom, 1 Arm.
  0.36%   -   7: 5 Fig, 1 Bom, 1 Arm.
  0.02%   -   7: 1 Inf, 5 Fig, 1 Arm.
  0.02%   -   7: 1 Inf, 4 Fig, 1 Bom, 1 Arm.
  1.72%   -   6: 4 Fig, 1 Bom, 1 Arm.
  0.02%   -   6: 5 Fig, 1 Arm.
  4.88%   -   5: 3 Fig, 1 Bom, 1 Arm.
  0.22%   -   5: 4 Fig, 1 Arm.
  9.3%    -   4: 2 Fig, 1 Bom,
  0.42%   -   4: 3 Fig, 1 Arm.
  11.76% -   3: 1 Fig, 1 Bom, 1 Arm.
  0.92%   -   3: 2 Fig, 1 Arm.
  11.5%   -   2: 1 Bom, 1 Arm. (average result)
  1%       -   2: 1 Fig, 1 Arm. (average result)
  8.8%     -   1: 1 Arm. (median result)
  48.94% -   0: no units.

That is the reason why I wouldn’t even try the sea lion with 1 fig destroyed by the russians.

The results with frood 1.0 where about the same, so I wonder why your odds are so much better

[Jennifer]

Ranor,

I got those numbers from Frood.  I assumed 1 Fighter killed by the Russians on Russia 1 and 1 Fighter killed by the AA Gun in England and that Germany had succeeded in LRA.

That leaves:

Infantry
4 Fighters
Bomber
Armor

Attacking, in order of loss and

Bomber
2 Infantry
Artillery
Armor
2 Fighters

Defending, in order of loss

Note, the order of loss was changed so that the defending bomber was killed first to maximize the damage done to Germany.

This leaves a 1 in 4 chance of Germany FAILING to take London on Germany 1.

---

Axis,

The way to adjust the OOL on Frood really is not difficult.  Just change the Bat to Bom and then the Bom to Bat and run the sim again.  (Bats are always listed first, but you get the idea.)  Just make sure to type the units in correctly, as they are already written under the attacker/defender line.  Also, check for duplicate entries!

[tekkyy]

so we have a test game to watch

and its set to 5 LRA dice

I am hoping that means we have a consensus on outcome being obvious for case of getting LRA with fewer dice

[Jennifer]

No one is arguing that if Germany gets LRA with 1 Die that it’s over powering.  Not unrecoverable, but darn near close.

However, statistically speaking, you’d need at least 6 dice to be relatively sure of 1 success. (1/6+1/6+1/6+1/6+1/6+1/6=1)  And if I was going to try it, I don’t think I’d take less then 6 dice.  However, 5 seems okay.  At least it allows you to build 5 infantry still.

[DarthMaximus]

@tekkyy:

so we have a test game to watch

and its set to 5 LRA dice

I am hoping that means we have a consensus on outcome being obvious for case of getting LRA with fewer dice

I picked 5 dice rolls, b/c with anything less I wouldn’t be scared if Ger tried to tech since with 4 rolls it is about 50% and drops as you go to 2 or 3 dice.  At that point it is to the Allies advantage to make Germnay buy the dice, then try to actually roll the dice for tech, then actually roll the aa-fire for London, then try to roll the actual battle of London.

All those odds add up to an Allied advantage so there is no point in trying to prevent Sea Lion since by simply doing nothing the Allies will win 60-70% of the games at least.

Looks like our test may have been a bust anyway, since it looks like Russia will blitz to Belin on R1 after UK took out the blocker inf in Balk.

[Ranor]

Sry Cmdr Jennifer.

I’ve redone the battle on frood with your proposed OOL (which is in fact the OOL I used in frood 2.0) and the results stay the same 50% 0 units for germany. The only time I got results simmiliar to yours was, when I only used 1 defending inf for the brits instead of 2.

[Jennifer]

@Ranor:

Sry Cmdr Jennifer.

I’ve redone the battle on frood with your proposed OOL (which is in fact the OOL I used in frood 2.0) and the results stay the same 50% 0 units for germany. The only time I got results simmiliar to yours was, when I only used 1 defending inf for the brits instead of 2.

This should be the link to the display I am getting from frood with my results:

http://frood.net/aacalc/?mustland=1&abortratio=0&saveunits=0&strafeunits=0&aInf=1&aArt=&aArm=1&aFig=4&aBom=1&aTra=&aSub=&aDes=&aCar=&aBat=&adBat=&dInf=2&dArt=1&dArm=1&dFig=2&dBom=1&dTra=&dSub=&dDes=&dCar=&dBat=&ddBat=&ool_att=Bat-Inf-Art-Arm-Tra-Sub-SSub-Fig-JFig-Des-Bom-HBom-Car-dBat&ool_def=Bom-Inf-Art-Arm-Tra-Sub-SSub-Bat-HBom-Des-Fig-JFig-Car-dBat&battle=Run&rounds=&reps=10000&luck=pure&ruleset=Revised&gameid=&password=&turnid=&territory=&round=1&pbem=

Overall %*: A. survives: 77.8% D. survives: 18.1% No one survives: 4.1%

• percentages may not total 100 due to rounding. The average results from above are highlighted in charts below, while the median result (equal odds of getting a worse or better result) is written in red. Attacker results:
  –------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Probability % # units / losses
  0.09% 7: 1 Inf, 1 Arm, 4 Fig, 1 Bom / no units. : 0 IPCs
  0.72% 6: 1 Arm, 4 Fig, 1 Bom / 1 Inf. : 3 IPCs
  6.05% 5: 1 Arm, 3 Fig, 1 Bom / 1 Inf, 1 Fig. : 13 IPCs
  18.7% 4: 1 Arm, 2 Fig, 1 Bom / 1 Inf, 2 Fig. : 23 IPCs
  24.05% 3: 1 Arm, 1 Fig, 1 Bom / 1 Inf, 3 Fig. : 33 IPCs
  17.78% 2: 1 Arm, 1 Bom / 1 Inf, 4 Fig. : 43 IPCs
  10.42% 1: 1 Arm / 1 Inf, 4 Fig, 1 Bom. : 58 IPCs
  22.19% 0: no units / 1 Inf, 1 Arm, 4 Fig, 1 Bom. : 63 IPCs

–------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Defender results:

Probability % # units / losses
  0.08% 6: 2 Inf, 1 Art, 1 Arm, 2 Fig / 1 Bom. : 15 IPCs Lost
  0.44% 5: 1 Inf, 1 Art, 1 Arm, 2 Fig / 1 Inf, 1 Bom. : 18 IPCs Lost
  1.28% 4: 1 Art, 1 Arm, 2 Fig / 2 Inf, 1 Bom. : 21 IPCs Lost
  3.24% 3: 1 Arm, 2 Fig / 2 Inf, 1 Art, 1 Bom. : 25 IPCs Lost
  5.86% 2: 2 Fig / 2 Inf, 1 Art, 1 Arm, 1 Bom. : 30 IPCs Lost
  7.22% 1: 1 Fig / 2 Inf, 1 Art, 1 Arm, 1 Fig, 1 Bom. : 40 IPCs Lost

81.88% 0: no units / 2 Inf, 1 Art, 1 Arm, 2 Fig, 1 Bom. : 50 IPCs Lost (+30 IPC Plundered if Germany takes the land)
–------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I glowed and changed the text color of both the most likely outcome and the average income.  Everytime I run this the percentage changes from 24 to 23 to 22 but it’s always about a 1 in 4 chance of the attacker being wiped out without taking England.

Just to re-iterate:

I am assuming Russia took Ukraine on Round 1 with at least 1 armor and 2 fighters remaining.
I am assuming England scored 1 out of 6 Hits with the Anti-Aircraft Gun in London hitting a fighter.
I am assuming Germany spent 30 IPC and got 1 out of 6 Hits for Long Range Aircraft Technology (only fair, 1 out of 6 for England, 1 out of 6 for Germany)
I am assuming the Germans MUST have 1 armor die last, which could cost them the battle if they roll a 4, 5 or 6 and all they have is an armor vs a fighter
I am assuming that England loses the bomber first.  Honestly, I highly doubt there is a chance that England would want to keep the bomber in that scenario anyway, unless they got dang lucky with them AA Guns and the attacker missed everything in site.