It’s the chance of 3 destroyers getting 1 hit in 1 round.
3 defending submarines = 33.7% chance to get 1 hit in 1 round of battle.
8-) I see.
Just curious how this is calculated because if I do the best math I can come up myself with, I end up with 38,6% for 3 defending submarines to get 1 hit in 1 round and, indeed, 44,4% for those now famous 3dd ;-)
I had to take a look into my old dusty schoolbooks for this, because I am in no way using maths like this on a regularly basis but I used this method (don’t even know how it is called anymore):
Chance for 3dd to hit 1nce: (3/1)(1/3)1(2/3)2 = 3!/(1!*(3-1)!)*4/27 = 44,4%
But isnt the right way to compare units if not using LL, calculating the chance to hit at least 1 target?
My math may be a little faulty and dusty but for 3dd the above method returns the following results:
Chance 3dd will hit 1 or more targets = 70,4% (51,8% for 4 defending submarines -same IPC value- and 80,2% when they are attacking)
And also interesting:
Chance 3dd will NOT hit 0 times or ALL = 66,6% (1 or 2 times for 3 units).
Anyway, I always realise the math is only a 3rd the story. The other 2 rds are ofc the economic and the strategic comparison.
For example: using only aircraft to remove key reinforcements (RAF in Moscow removing German reinforcements) may seem too expensive because the RAF might loose 10, 20 or even 30 IPCs (2 to 3 FTR) to remove 6 reinforcing German MECH, but from strategic perspective this might be the way to defeat Germany because it opens the can for the Russians to switch to the offensive -particularly after the Siberians have just returned.
10,000 battles on a simulator that is pretty close to actual dice results. Something reliable that is not always perfect compared to actual results, but at least comes close 99.99999999999999999999999999999999998% of the time (or so it seems.)
Keep in mind, it’s 1 round - not a whole battle.
@Cmdr:
10,000 battles on a simulator that is pretty close to actual dice results. Something reliable that is not always perfect compared to actual results, but at least comes close 99.99999999999999999999999999999999998% of the time (or so it seems.)
Keep in mind, it’s 1 round - not a whole battle.Â
Hehheh, you sure you havent forgotten a nine ^.^
Ofc I realize it is just 1 round. Kinda sad if, for example, 3dd would only produce 1 hit in a whole battle :evil:.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Probability#Independent_probability
Thanks Variance, just what I needed :)
3 Destroyers have about a 45% chance of getting a hit in one round of battle
3 Destroyers has:
30% chance to miss
70% chance to hit AT LEAST one unit.
2 Cruisers has:
25% chance to miss
75% chance to hit AT LEAST one unit.
Now dd’s always outpreform cruisers in naval battle due to the extra casualies. Cruiser is for bombard ability.
Id say cruiser is very little bought due to the fact that everyone start with enough cruisers to bombard and dont need to buy more of them.
@Sire:
Again, I’d like to say that a Cruiser with an AA gun value (same as the ground unit) would make the Cruiser a little more interesting to buy because of the additionnal defensive protection for a fleet.
I have lobbied for giving Cruisers an AA capability. Each cruiser in a fleet that is attacked by planes works like a land based AA gun. You roll up to 3 dice, OR the number of attacking planes, whichever is smaller, and any roll of 1 removes an attacking plane. That would certainly validate it’s 12 IPC cost and each ship in your fleet would have it’s own special abilities.
Submarine = surprise strike, stealth, convoy raiding
Destroyer = ASW–prevents surprise strikes of subs
Cruiser = bombard, AA gun
Battleship = bombard, hit soak
Carrier = hit soak, carries planesI also think Destroyers should be able to bombard @ 2. In a lot of the amphibious invasions, Destroyers fired at coastal positions right along side Battleships and Cruisers. In some of the earlier US assaults, Destroyers were the primary bombardment ships because we didn’t have any Battleships ready yet.
I’m backing you up on this.
Have you read this House rule thread about AAA and cruiser vs battleship?
Re: Cont From the AAA Thread, but about warships not AA Guns
http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=31177.msg1142536#msg1142536
There is many discussion about cruiser. Reply #80 and #81 have many references on it.
This discussion help me find this way of thinking about cruisers a little less agressive on AA, but still promoting cruiser’s buying:
I would prefer a third addition (since carrier was the real historical AA platform):
when BB+CA are present and a CV is added, then you get a third AA@1.So, a complete AA preemptive strike (vs 3 planes as OOB AAA) will be obtain with BB+CA+CV.
The order is important to have the most incentive to buy BB and CA: cruiser and BB, then CV.
You buy a CV and BB? Nothing happen until the cruiser is bought.(This last AA@1, adds another advantage of a fleet carrier vs CVL/CVE.)
This 3@1 AA can be considered historical, since:
Around 3min. 25 s.: they explain how a fleet defensive formation was organized.
From outer circles, to the most inner circles: DDs, cruisers, BBs, fleet carriers.
I treat cruisers like AA platform when they roll “1”, they hit an aircraft.
But to act like a naval AA gun with preemptive strike against 2 aircrafts, they must be paired with BB. And against 3 aircrafts, it will need a third warship: 1 fleet carrier.
CA A3D3M3C12 1 hit, can bombard 1@3, AA platform, combined AA fire with BB.
AA platform: any “1” hit must be allocated to 1 aircraft (owner’s choice) if present.
Combined AA fire with BB: when paired with BB 1 cruiser get 1AA@1 preemptive defensive fire.
BB A4D4M2C20 2 hits, can bombard 1@4, combined AA fire with cruiser.
Combined AA fire with cruiser (CA): when paired with CA 1 BB get 1AA@1 preemptive defensive fire.
So if I get it correctly,
A tier of {2bb + 2ca + 2cv} in your fleet will give you 6 first strikes@1 if aircraft are present in a naval battle (limited to the number of aircraft)? For only the first round or every round?
Personally I like it. I adds to the value of CA whilst also adding to the value of CV so that their relative value stays the same.
I only wonder if it would be too strong perhaps, upsetting the balance of the game but that would be a matter of playtesting ;-)
First anticipation: Germany will have a little more problems hitting the RN hard in G1 (UK BB+CA in 2 areas), same for UK performing “Taranto” (Italian BB+CA), Japanese fleet will be a bit stronger in defense (2BB+2CA+2CV tier) but weaker in offense since the USA also has at least 1 tier for 3@1.
Wonderful idea at first glance! Sincerely hope this would not upset game balance so could be incorporated into the main rules set!
My 2 cents as well.
AAA: I’ve heard many people suggesting to reduce the cost to 4. Actually an AAA gun is better than infantry already if it can potentially fire at 3 planes.
For calculation purposes:
6 AAA (30 IPC): 18 hits on planes. Averages 3 hits.
10 Inf (30 IPC): 3 1/3 hits.
While the infantry does a little more damage, this damage probably only goes to enemy infantry. Additionally, planes hit by AAA can’t even fire back once.
Now the infantry of course has 4 hp more and can fire in the second round as well, but if the opponents attacks with such a large force that requires 6 AAA, these 10 inf will probably die in the first round anyway. This means you should always defend with as much AAA as necessary.
Now if AAA is so good at defending, why aren’t they never bought? Simply because most powers start with enough already. The capitals start with 3-6 already, this means they can defend against 9-18 planes!!! Just replace some starting AAA with infantry and you will see people will start buying AAA. Of course some powers just don’t need them (USA, Japan for example).
If you allow AAA to shoot at 4 planes, they will be bought even less, since you need even fewer!
Cruiser: This is by far the weakest unit per IPC. It should cost 10 IPC to match a fighter. It’s still weaker in defense, but does not need a carrier and has the bonus of bombardment.
The suggestment of cruiser having AAA ability sounds very interesting too, since cruisers don’t have a special ability at the moment (besides bombardment), while every other ship has.
Battleship: Looking at damage and hp, battleships are slightly weaker than destroyers (clearly weaker in the first round of battle, but stronger after the first round). They can bombard (which isn’t super important, though, since rarely used) but can’t be used as blockers and don’t negate sub first strike. However, if you manage to repair a battleship, that’s worth a lot. Having one battleship in your fleet is very useful to absorb the damage from blockers and other single ships. Since all powers with a fleet already start with at least one Battleship, you almost never see a battleship purchased. Lowering the cost to 19 might already solve that, although 18 might or might not be necessary.
Submarine: Actually the submarine is the strongest sea unit right now. Nothing is even nearly as good at attacking, as the subs.
But what really surprises most: Submarine are the strongest in defense too, if compared with carrier+fighter. Submarines are the cannon fodder at sea. The best possible defense combination at sea is:
5 submarines per each carrier+2fighter.
This trumps every other combination, IPC-wise. Since submarines are ALSO the best attacking unit, your fleet should basically always look like this:
Enough destroyers to have all the blockers you need
Enough destroyer to kill off convoying submarines.
Enough destroyers to support your carriers against an air-only attack (submarines can’t help here).
0-2 Battleships to absorb hits when attacking smaller fleets (if your carriers can’t be damaged)
5 submarines for every full carrier. More submarines, if you’re the aggressive power.
This means submarines at the moment are too strong. A possible solution would be to raise the cost AND damage. Maybe 8 IPC, but 3 on attack (needs to be calculated, haven’t done that yet). This would mean the sub loses its cannon-fodder status and becomes an attack-only unit, similar to bombers.
Submarine: Actually the submarine is the strongest sea unit right now. Nothing is even nearly as good at attacking, as the subs.
But what really surprises most: Submarine are the strongest in defense too, if compared with carrier+fighter. Submarines are the cannon fodder at sea. The best possible defense combination at sea is:5 submarines per each carrier+2fighter.
This trumps every other combination, IPC-wise. Since submarines are ALSO the best attacking unit, your fleet should basically always look like this:
Enough destroyers to have all the blockers you need
Enough destroyer to kill off convoying submarines.
Enough destroyers to support your carriers against an air-only attack (submarines can’t help here).
0-2 Battleships to absorb hits when attacking smaller fleets (if your carriers can’t be damaged)
5 submarines for every full carrier. More submarines, if you’re the aggressive power.This means submarines at the moment are too strong. A possible solution would be to raise the cost AND damage. Maybe 8 IPC, but 3 on attack (needs to be calculated, haven’t done that yet). This would mean the sub loses its cannon-fodder status and becomes an attack-only unit, similar to bombers.
Hi,
actually the subs cannon-fodder for surface fleet effect is what bother me most about the submarines rules.
I’m working on a different way to play them in naval battle without changing their cost.
I need time to formulate clearly the rules but the first principle of my Subs HR is simple:
Submarines is working as totally distinct fleet from other vessels (TTs, DDs, light cruiser (CL), CV and BB).
It implies that any unit attacking a large surface fleet won’t be bother by enemy subs even when they share the same sea-zone (SZ).
So technically, it means that your 5 cheap cannon-fodder subs won’t be useful against someone willing to sink destroyers and carriers.
In the present rules set, their is a small gap when you have only aircraft attacking a fleet. It is the way to bypass the subs ability to take hit in place of bigger warships. After that battle, the next turn, you can throw destroyers and aircrafts against subs to wipe them out.
Cruiser: This is by far the weakest unit per IPC. It should cost 10 IPCs to match a fighter. It’s still weaker in defence, but does not need a carrier and has the bonus of bombardment.
The suggestment of cruiser having AAA ability sounds very interesting too, since cruisers don’t have a special ability at the moment (besides bombardment), while every other ship has.
The problem with a 10 IPCs CL is that 2 hits 20 IPCs BB will not be buy anymore:
2 CL= A6D6M2 2@3 bombardment and you can hit twice/rnd vs A4D4M2 1@4 bombd. can only hit once/rnd.
Do you see? And then you must lower BB to 18 IPCs… creating a double rule change but it still can be consistent.
Many also suggest to upgrade CL to a 3 moves ship and keeping the 12 IPCs cost.
So if I get it correctly,
A tier of {2bb + 2ca + 2cv} in your fleet will give you 6 first strikes@1 if aircraft are present in a naval battle (limited to the number of aircraft:)? For only the first round or every round? Yes, same rule as OOB AAA.
Personally I like it. It adds to the value of CA whilst also adding to the value of CV so that their relative value stays the same.
You see all the point in this HR: BB and CV unit alone are the same as OOB rules.
I only wonder if it would be too strong perhaps, upsetting the balance of the game but that would be a matter of playtesting ;-)
Maybe, my first draft of this HR was to give only up to 2AA@1 for Cruiser and BB, letting aside the carrier. IMO, if a full fleet 1DD, 1CL, 1CV+ 2Fgts, 1BB can only bring 2 Fgts then it can only oppose an antiaircraft gunnery against 2 enemy planes. Here is a pure symmetry criteria appeal.First anticipation: Germany will have a little more problems hitting the RN hard in G1 (UK BB+CA in 2 areas), same for UK performing “Taranto” (Italian BB+CA), Japanese fleet will be a bit stronger in defense (2BB+2CA+2CV tier) but weaker in offence since the USA also has at least 1 tier for 3@1.
Wonderful idea at first glance! Sincerely hope this would not upset game balance so could be incorporated into the main rules set!
Thank you very much for your enthusiasm.
This HR is not far from actual rules which said that an Inf get +1 to attack when paired with an Art unit.
Amongst all ideas and spaghetti on the wall I threw, I think it is the less alien to A&A system rules and the more historical.
(Have you watched the documentary? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxhzWUhBJgE)
Cruiser: This is by far the weakest unit per IPC.
It should cost 10 IPCs to match a fighter.
It’s still weaker in defense, but does not need a carrier and has the bonus of bombardment.
The suggestment of cruiser having AAA ability sounds very interesting too, since cruisers don’t have a special ability at the moment (besides bombardment), while every other ship has.
This is by far the weakest unit per IPC.
The more I make simulation in a battle calculator the more it reveals the truth of this blunt sentence.
Therefore,
It should cost 10 IPCs to match a fighter.
Even all the little AAA / 3 moves adjustments to get light cruiser (CL) a more interesting unit doesn’t counterbalance the competitive DDs, BBs and fighters in combat.
I put to test: CL A3D3M2C10 vs BB A4D4M2C18, 2 hits
9 CL vs 5 BB = 40% vs 56% for the battleship
4 CL vs 5 DD = 45% vs 50% for the destroyer
3 CL vs 5 Subs= 43% vs 57% for submarines rolling “1” on defense!!!
3 CL on def vs 5 SS on offence= 8% vs 92% for the subs of course.
And finally, 3 CL vs 3 Fgt = 24% vs 63%.
The only even match: 3 CL on def vs 3 Fgt on offence!
Larry Harris always refuses to lower cruiser to 10 IPCs because the BB at 20 IPCs becomes of no interest.
Now, I say just lower the cost of both cruiser and BB of 2 IPCs.
Get cruiser at 10 IPCs and battleship at 18 IPCs.
At least, cruiser will be a better match even if it would still be inferior in battle against all other units.
Just add some of the other little +1 move or 1@1 AA to get a better balance unit inside the A&A system.
Probably it would need another thread in House Rule to discuss this unique solution (for not derailing this actual thread). It is:
http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=32165.msg1202619#msg1202619
Yes I agree. 10 IPC cruisers are still weaker than everything else except 20 IPC battleships (which are the 2nd worst sea units right now).
I think the main point of cruisers and battleships being too weak is because they don’t really have a certain role to perform.
Subs: By far the best attacking unit. Still very strong on defense due to being cannon fodder cheap. Strong convoy. Requires the enemy to have destroyers.
Destroyers: Cannon fodder against air-only attacks. Blockers. Prevent first strike and submerge.
Carriers: Carries planes, which not only have a longer range than ships, but also are not blocked by destroyers.
Cruisers and Battleships only have bombardment and I find bombardment really weak. It’s far, far superior to just build carriers+planes, if you want your amphibious assaults to have more power.
So to make both ships more viable, it could help to buff bombardment to fire every round except only the first one. It’s also possible to buff bombardment to work the same way as Kamikaze and AAA hits, removing the defenders immediately, that are hit.
But still - as long as cruisers and battleships share the same ability (Bombardment), there will ALWAYS remain this problem:
One of them will be mathematically better IPC-wise. (If they are exactly equally strong, battleships will never be built).
So my suggestion to solve the current sea imbalances:
Give bombardment to only one of these ships and buff it. Give the other ship an entirely new skill, so that every ship has its own role. A possibility would be to give battleships the skill to bombard facilities. It could work like rockets (the technology). Every BB can shoot at one harbor/airfield/factory within a range of 2 (or coastal only maybe) for 1d6.
Cruisers and Battleships only have bombardment and I find bombardment really weak. It’s far, far superior to just build carriers+planes, if you want your amphibious assaults to have more power.
So to make both ships more viable, it could help to buff bombardment to fire every round except only the first one. It’s also possible to buff bombardment to work the same way as Kamikaze and AAA hits, removing the defenders immediately, that are hit.But still - as long as cruisers and battleships share the same ability (Bombardment), there will ALWAYS remain this problem:
One of them will be mathematically better IPC-wise. (If they are exactly equally strong, battleships will never be built).So my suggestion to solve the current sea imbalances:
Give bombardment to only one of these ships and buff it. Give the other ship an entirely new skill, so that every ship has its own role. A possibility would be to give battleships the skill to bombard facilities. It could work like rockets (the technology). Every BB can shoot at one harbor/airfield/factory within a range of 2 (or coastal only maybe) for 1d6.
Interesting and never discuss options.
You should post it in the House rules on Light Cruiser thread I have just started.
http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=32165.msg1202619#msg1202619
MrRoboto,
I have reply to your post here:
http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=32165.msg1202630#msg1202630
Reading all these replies is frustrating. Doesn’t anyone realize the cost of building such fleets. It has been and continues to be the biggest problem with axis and allies. Navy’s cost to much and are completely unrealistic. The land forces you have to give up to build even the most modest of fleets is ridiculous. The first one to do it only is saved by the foolish reaction of you opponent doing the same thing.
Though not as big as a problem as in the past, it is still a problem and instead of the solution being dramatically reducing the cost of navy’s, Larry came up with ridiculous unrealistic National Objectives (I don’t disagree with them all) to try and force inefficient naval battles in the Pacific. Inefficient because what you spend on Navy’s forces you to give up so much in what could be achieved in Land battles. This goes especially for Japan. The reason all the other versions resulted in Japan going all out against Russia is because it was the only smart thing to do.
But know, essentially all Japan has to do is capture Hawaii and the entire war is won??? So Germany could be collapsing, Italy could be wiped out and ooops, Japan got Hawaii, game over!!! Stupid!!!
Drastically reducing the cost of Navy’s was the right answer and though they were reduced slightly, they weren’t reduced nearly enough.
Transports $4 (they are defensless)
Sub $5
Destroyers $7 (not efficient to buy, but absolutely necessary for defense against subs so are still bought)
Cruisers $8
Carriers $8
Battleships $13
And while we are at it
Fighters $8
Tac bombers $10
Lets just do it already.
You maybe right on the diagnosis but it doesn’t prove that your solution is well balanced.
What is the reasoning behind the lower costs of warships unit you suggest?
@Baron:
(…)
(Have you watched the documentary? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxhzWUhBJgE)
Just did, nice one!
@Baron:
(…)
(Have you watched the documentary? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hxhzWUhBJgE)Just did, nice one!
Glad you like it.
