How likely could America fall if all the Axis work together?

I remember reading this article about the same topic. It had a step by step guide to take the US.
http://www.axisandallies.org/forums/index.php?topic=20342.0

There used to be a way to set up a two pronged attack on the US without bringing them into the war until you attacked.  Larry Harris (the designer) did not like that so he tinkered with the rules to essentially end that strategy.

Nutshell: 
A) Japan keeps moving and gets in range of Panama and W. USA.  Panama is important, you want to shut down any attack on your fleet or escape of their fleet if at all possible!
B) Germany pretends to set up Sea Lion, the moves all the units to Gibraltar (again, Sea Lion is still a threat from there, but England’s had another round to build than they would in a normal sea lion.)

On Round 4, just after America has gotten their first real paycheck, Germany strikes hitting E. USA/ SZ 101.  Japan follows up with a strike on W. USA, Panama and SZ 10.

I never did it, but that’s along the lines of what was being done.  I always meant to try it, but Larry said no, and then made it illegal to set up the attack. wink  Makes me wonder if it would have worked, or if it was along the lines of the CASPIAN SUB - Canadian Shield strategy.

Everything is possible so i give a USA attack 1% chance, or 10% against a complete rookie. 60% against a monkey :D

It will keep USA busy, yes. So if Axis is doing important stuff in the meantime (which i doubt since all Axis are investing in a US attack), i suppose it keeps USA away for a while.

On the other hand, as USA (being rich but faraway from the war) i can only wish that the enemy spends money bringing it closer by.

I think it could work if A> Japan, Germany and Italy all have to work together toward this goal, B> the US player doesn’t see it coming until too late and C> something odd doesn’t happen to screw it up.
On that last part, for example, Germany needs to take out France round 1, period.  If they don’t, then they won’t have the money to buy enough transports to properly invade E USA and it will probably fail.  I speak from experience as me and my Axis buddies tried that in a game and France took 2 rounds to capture which messed up the whole plan.

If it DOES work, Germany should get a huge bonus from plundering America’s treasury plus the 20 IPCs that EUSA is worth.  Then they should be able to buy enough stuff and turn back any progress the Russians and British may have made while Germany was in the US.  Same goes for Japan.  Assuming they are successful, they will get a good bonus from capturing W USA plus the NO for San Francisco so they should be able to beat back the Indians and ANZAC and Chinese.  With no more US Navy to hassle them, the others should be relatively easy to deal with.

If it FAILS, then the Axis are doomed.  This plan takes too much investing on all Axis parties so all their other objectives will be wide open to attack by the other Allies.  Japan will likeley never get the DEI, much less Calcutta or Sydney, and forget about conquering China.  Russia will steamroll Germany on the Eastern Front and UK will probably knock Italy out of Africa and start landings in W Europe.  With too much money tied up in the “America Invasion” and nothing to show for it, there is no way the Axis will recover.

@knp7765:

I think it could work if A> Japan, Germany and Italy all have to work together toward this goal, B> the US player doesn’t see it coming until too late and C> something odd doesn’t happen to screw it up.

B and C are out of Axis’ control, and B shouldn’t happen (if you don’t notice a large enemy force moving within reach of one of your capitols, and your Allied friends don’t notice either, then you have a problem)

On the Pacific side, by the time Japan takes Hawaii (or the SZ around it), USA should at least have 3 surface warships present on their Pacific coast. Which is enough to block any Japanese attack route to USA for 1 turn (for ex. SZ’s 13, 12 and 27). Enough to place enough reinforcements in W.USA.

Their Atlantic side could be abit trickier if Italy has moved fleet to SZ92 (which could become naval can openers the next turn)
Without those, again, about 3 surface warships should be enough to block Germany’s route for a turn (enough to build up sufficient defence in E-USA).

Yea, the original premise assumed you had your warships adjacent to SZ 10, so America could not block you.

@Cmdr:

Yea, the original premise assumed you had your warships adjacent to SZ 10, so America could not block you.

How about the Japanese transports? (in that original case)

Edit: i mean, where are they? ;)

@special:

@Cmdr:

Yea, the original premise assumed you had your warships adjacent to SZ 10, so America could not block you.

How about the Japanese transports? (in that original case)

Edit: i mean, where are they? ;)

They are with the surface ships next to SZ 10 (south and west split) so that nothing can be blocked. Your last round of surface ships are to hit Hawaii with (or Alaska - odds are one is not blocked).

Remember, I am only reporting from what I remember, I never actually did this myself!

@Cmdr:

@special:

@Cmdr:

Yea, the original premise assumed you had your warships adjacent to SZ 10, so America could not block you.

How about the Japanese transports? (in that original case)

Edit: i mean, where are they? ;)

They are with the surface ships next to SZ 10 (south and west split) so that nothing can be blocked. Your last round of surface ships are to hit Hawaii with (or Alaska - odds are one is not blocked).

Remember, I am only reporting from what I remember, I never actually did this myself!

Okay that’s what i wanted to check (because if they were next to Hawaii they could indeed still be blocked).

But… when a japanese fleet WITH loaded transports is one sea-zone away from the USA, i hope the US player will start to suspect something and buy defensively :)

Also, won’t USA already be in the war by that time? (hence big bucks)

@special:

@Cmdr:

@special:

@Cmdr:

Yea, the original premise assumed you had your warships adjacent to SZ 10, so America could not block you.

How about the Japanese transports? (in that original case)

Edit: i mean, where are they? ;)

They are with the surface ships next to SZ 10 (south and west split) so that nothing can be blocked. Your last round of surface ships are to hit Hawaii with (or Alaska - odds are one is not blocked).

Remember, I am only reporting from what I remember, I never actually did this myself!

Okay that’s what i wanted to check (because if they were next to Hawaii they could indeed still be blocked).

But… when a japanese fleet WITH loaded transports is one sea-zone away from the USA, i hope the US player will start to suspect something and buy defensively :)

Also, won’t USA already be in the war by that time? (hence big bucks)

This I know, there was no way for the American player to build defensively enough to cover all three zones or be able to liberate them.

That was what intrigued me, you know?  Germany/Italy pound C. USA and Japan takes W. USA allowing them an instant IC that probably cannot be liberated for rounds and rounds and rounds.  This assumes America stacks E. USA!  Remember, even with 52 IPC, America is stuck with 9 units a round until at war!  They also don’t start with a whole heck of a lot of ground units either.

Now, of course, you cannot be within transport range of W. USA.  Unless I am misreading that, which means you have to be in SZ 15/25.  I could be wrong, it could be one more closer - in which case revive KAF!

Yeah, i guess those rule changes kinda closed that issue.

Still, even with the previous rules, i would feel confident as USA (maybe wrongfully, it is possible).

With so many things that can go wrong, possible moves of (all of) the Allies that can screw things up, a few turns of buys of the USA (even with limited IC’s and income), that are a lot of factors that influence the already small odds for succes.
But i would applaud the ballsy plan if it ever happened against me, and it will sure be a short but interesting game!

I never did it for a few reasons:

1)  England can build units in Canada to at least help.
2)  What is China, India, Australia and Russia doing to Japan while you are sending 3 rounds of income to America?
3)  Felt cheesy, like Canadian Shield to me.

Canadian shield?

@special:

Canadian shield?

Classic game.

You set up to take E. Canada with Germany and W. Canada with Japan thus allowing Alaska to fall and not be liberated right away then sweep down and take out America.  It’s a Caspian Sub paper - really easy to block if you see it coming.

@Cmdr:

@special:

Canadian shield?

Classic game.

You set up to take E. Canada with Germany and W. Canada with Japan thus allowing Alaska to fall and not be liberated right away then sweep down and take out America.  It’s a Caspian Sub paper - really easy to block if you see it coming.

Ahhh, ok.

@Cmdr:

I never did it for a few reasons:

1)  England can build units in Canada to at least help.
2)  What is China, India, Australia and Russia doing to Japan while you are sending 3 rounds of income to America?
3)  Felt cheesy, like Canadian Shield to me.

As for 1 and especially 2: indeed something for Axis to worry about.

This is what I was saying.  It could POSSIBLY happen, but very unlikely.  Too many things have to go right for it to work and it is an “All or nothing” gambit.  On the odd chance that it actually works, it should result in an Axis victory.  Yes, the other Allies will have some fun gobbling up Axis territories and setting them back, but once the Axis get back from their American adventure, they should be strong enough to start retaking any losses and start gaining against the other Allies, with no USA on their backs.  Particuarly Germany since they will also be getting all of America’s cash as well.  That will buy a lot of tanks and planes to use against Russia and Britain.
However, if it fails (and probably will), then the Axis are doomed.  There is no way they can recover from investing all that money and equipment in America, getting it all killed and trying to come back to their homelands to stop the other Allies which will be having a field day.  Plus, USA will still be in the game, making a bunch of money and out for revenge.

Problem with that ronrye is that Germany needs 11 transports. If Germany takes Gibralter R2 how are their 10 transports going to be protected from at least 4 UK planes?