Best UK defense for Sealion 3 or 4 collaboration

Yes, the CV buy at first was to force Germany to devote significant air power to 110 and prevent any Italian opening, but it seems now that just going for the 9 Inf is the better buy.

Also, this potential G2 Sealion goes along with a G1 buy of 4 Transports, to give a total of 5 TT.
Even with 4 Tanks, 1 Artillery (the best possible offense with 5 TT), Sealion really isn’t possible on G2.
Germany risks a lot of the Luftwaffe with James’s opening - 
and must devote air power to 110 during the Sealion invasion, as 3 scrambled fighters will beat 1 BB, 1 CA.
And even if Germany through some miralce got the full power of the Luftwaffe to London, Sealion is still not very plausible.

Interesting, so what we are seeing here is that if Germany losses any aircraft, either through attrition or the need to clear a sz, they are exponentially increasing the risk to themselves that their strategy will fail.  A G2 and G3 sealion will require everything Germany can throw at London for a 50%+ chance to win.  I don’t think we should ‘pull the trigger’ on london unless Germany can get above 80%.

Does this mean we need to move to a G3- Scotland G4-London strategy for Germany?  We’ve debunked the G2 moves with the Max Protect, but I think we’re going to have trouble with that combo.

Yeah, there’s huge risk in that zone.  It probably would be beneficial to scramble there.

I still really think that G2 Sealion isn’t very practical.  Germany must put at least 1 plane into 110, probably 2 to be safe.
If Germany tries to hold off until G3, then they have to hide in 133 - UK can throw 1 DD (106), 1 CA, 5 Fig, 1 Tac at 112.  UK will win in a significant way there.
And hiding in 113 brings other problems, but they are managable.

@jim010:

I looked at buying a CV with UK only to get the fht from Gib into sz112, but that would only ever be done with UK has the DD from sz109 and the CA form sz91

Hitting sz109 with 3 sb removes that as a problem, as UK can no longer hit sz112 on its turn.

But …

sz111 now worries me.  1 sb, 1 fht, 1 tac, 1 bmb vs 1 DD, 1 BB and 1 scrambled fht.  Leaves that now a very iffy battle for the Germans.  UK would lose only 1 plane to Germany’s 2 - 3 planes.  That would make a G2 Sealion undoable?

I’ll stop posting about G2 at this point, just confusing people with ideas and it strays from this thread topic.

As to what I discussed with one proposed opening, which may be different then your map as I can’t open it:
Plan A) My subs went 109-3, 110,111 Fighters went 110-4,111-2 Tacs went 110-2,111-1. Bmbr went 111. BB + CA went 112, assumes CA sinks and BB lives with 1 dam.

I prefer this after reflecting:
Plan B) Subs 106-2, 110-2, 111. Fighters 110-4,111-2. Tac 110-2,111-1. Bmbr 111. BB+CA 112 CA dies. Land 2 inf+bmbr Denmark=4inf +bmbr.

I am not worried about losing the BB, I want to kill UK air. Plan B gives UK a DD,TT and CA for 112

Balls on the table: (first one to hit in Canada saves or takes London, then ramming speed with subs in 109. Damn the Torpedoes!)
Plan C) is same as plan B instead subs 106,109-2, 110,111 more risks more dicey outcomes, prepare for a G2 DOW on Russia :)

D=Dynamite!! (no reasonable chance- but toss enough coins and their is no UK navy)
Plan D) subs 106,109,91,110,111 rest as plan B.

@JamesAleman:

I prefer this after reflecting:
Plan B) Subs 106-2, 110-2, 111. Fighters 110-4,111-2. Tac 110-2,111-1. Bmbr 111. BB+CA 112 CA dies. Land 2 inf+bmbr Denmark=4inf +bmbr.

I am not worried about losing the BB, I want to kill UK air. Plan B gives UK a DD,TT and CA for 112

But then I don’t scramble and just destroy your fleet on my turn.

D=Dynamite!! (no reasonable chance- but toss enough coins and their is no UK navy)
Plan D) subs 106,109,91,110,111 rest as plan B.

Ha, sounds like a plan.  :-D

I think we’ve pretty well eliminated this G2 plan.  No offense to James, it was pretty creative.

But let’s try to move on.

@JamesAleman:

I’ll stop posting about G2 at this point, just confusing people with ideas and it strays from this thread topic.

As to what I discussed with one proposed opening, which may be different then your map as I can’t open it:
Plan A) My subs went 109-3, 110,111 Fighters went 110-4,111-2 Tacs went 110-2,111-1. Bmbr went 111. BB + CA went 112, assumes CA sinks and BB lives with 1 dam.

I prefer this after reflecting:
Plan B) Subs 106-2, 110-2, 111. Fighters 110-4,111-2. Tac 110-2,111-1. Bmbr 111. BB+CA 112 CA dies. Land 2 inf+bmbr Denmark=4inf +bmbr.

I am not worried about losing the BB, I want to kill UK air. Plan B gives UK a DD,TT and CA for 112

Balls on the table: (first one to hit in Canada saves or takes London, then ramming speed with subs in 109. Damn the Torpedoes!)
Plan C) is same as plan B instead subs 106,109-2, 110,111 more risks more dicey outcomes, prepare for a G2 DOW on Russia :)

D=Dynamite!! (no reasonable chance- but toss enough coins and their is no UK navy)
Plan D) subs 106,109,91,110,111 rest as plan B.

Awesome, I really appreciate the time you took here, by writing out the moves it lets me see what’s going where.

PlanA: I don’t like the 4 ftrs over 110, with the strength you have there UK would be foolish to scramble, pull 1 ftr for sz112.  Also, were I UK here I would scramble 4 ftrs in 109 to try and kill your subs UK1 and net me an NO.

PlanB: this is better in my eyes, killing that trn off Canada stops canadians from participating in the defense of London.  Again I think you need another combat unit in sz112 to protect your fleet.

PlanC: shudder  did you say riskier?  I wish I could throw the dice like that but I play A&A more like poker.  Get a lead through superior play and then perhaps throw the dice on a big battle.  But usually these are battles where I am attacking and can therefore retreat if things go sour….

PlanD: I’d be soo pissed if someone tried these moves against me.  However considering the number of low odds battles one or more are likely to fall UK’s way.  Still, when I’m playing Germany I like having subs way too much to throw them away in packets.  A targeted strike on UK’s DD defense is sufficient to give Germ the advantage.

Risky strategies can always pay off, but it is less often than their more likely dismal performance and early capitulation.  Although it can be possible for a player to use these types of strategies to win a game due to the fickleness of dice, in this exercise we should be focused on the ‘best’ approach to defending UK.  If Germany wants to throw their luck on a G2 assault, the likelihood they would succeed is not enough for us to warrant further study.  Germany could succeed any round  they can reach London, we just need to put the strongest defense together as possible against the most likely German moves.  We also need to figure out the most advantageous builds for Germany in order to launch Sealion, this I feel we have done.

Back to the original sequence of moves, Uk is faced with a massive fleet and army stationed in 112 and has a small navy comprising I believe of 2 CA 1 CV 2 TRN?  The only real question should be what to do with their ships, although a brief mention of the situation in Africa would be nice to show what exactly is happening down there.

I suggest the CV and 1 crusier move to 110, the other CA and trns to 109.  This will stop the G3 bombards and will also force Germany to commit aircraft if they plan to invade from sz 110.  (the CV and CA can be protected by scramblers from an Italian attack)

Were my earlier numbers for the defense of London correct?  And how many ipcs should UK be collecting UK2 considering likely pressure by Italy in the Med.

I think everything checks out fine, except -

Italy must leave 1 Transport in 97 in order to be able to take Gibraltar on I2.
This prevents UK from wasting the German fleet as it sits in 111 after G3.
I don’t think UK would act any differently on UK2 because of thsi change.

So-
I would recommend that Italy not take Cyprus, but put 1 BB, 1 CA in SZ 99.
There, Italy only has 1 Fig, 1 Tac to fear.  This is a losing proposition for UK.

Leave 1 DD in SZ 95.

And leave 1 CA, 1 TT in 97.
Again, only 1 Fig, 1 Tac can fight this, and Italy can scramble here just in case.

Or-
Italy could forgo the Fighter purchase, and get 1 TT, and maybe 1 Inf if wanted.
This is a tough choice because the Italian air force is very helpful in the area around UK for Sealion.
On I2 Italy will have 16-19 IPCs to spend on air power.  Then Italy can have either 3 Fig, 1 Tac or 2 Fig, 2 Tac to help Germany, and still be able to take Gibraltar.

Thoughts?

I also agree that Italy should be concerned with taking Gib.  They cannot do so on I1 but should be set to take it I2 after clearing any blockers.  If UK is able to stack Egypt so Italy cannot attack there, then perhaps they could strike at Malta and reinforce the African army.  That’s something that would help their overall war effort but not leave them out of position.  Another option would be an Italian strike at Algeria and Tunis, I think we should actually consider this option because it leaves the Italian fleet in the West Med and serves to possibly kill some inf that could be used in the defense of London.

I assume Italy is taking out the French ships and the UK blocker?  I still like the ftr purchase, but if we go another route then I think Italy should save some ipcs so they can safely buy a lvl bmb I2, that would certainly help against the UK.

Actually Jim I like the first option - going for the middle east as well.
Realistically UK can’t do anything to any Italian fleet possessions on UK2, and if they stay in the Med Italy will wreck them.  Italy has more air and it can finally get to 92, and UK loses its air cover as it left.
Italy’s position seems just as strong as if its fleet were united.

Just remember that Italy no longer controls Cyprus.  Not that it matters much for our purposes here.

Have you run the numbers iwth 15 German transports for use on G3?
4 Round 1
10 Round 2
1 Starting

?