Best UK defense for Sealion 3 or 4 collaboration

UK nabs Persia Round 1 to get a round 36 IPCs, in order to purchase 8 Inf, 2 Arm on UK2. 
It gets Iraq on Round 2 for the same reason.  And to make Italy’s life just slightly more difficult.

And you’re right, UK fleet movements on UK2 and UK3 are still a bit strange.  That’s sort of what I was talking about it my post as well.  If UK doesn’t try to block on UK2, as it probably shouldn’t, what does it do?
Staying in 91 puts it at risk of losing mobility if Italy takes Gibraltar (not with our current I1 though).
Other places, Germany might be able to strafe the fleet.

If you use the transport by India you can hit Iraq on Round 2 denying it to Italy. (well, denying the free infantry.)

I still like going after Italy, however.  Kill the Tobruk and Ethiopia stacks and sending your fleet out to India to help against Japan.  It may mean London is gone, but since when does London really matter in this game?  Short of England getting lucky in Africa/Middle East and Japan getting snookered by America?

Scotland turn 2 seems like a good risk if you are planning a G3 invasion anyway. If you skip a G2Scotland, you bring 26 land units on G3. If you drop 6 off on G2 (1aagun), they sink your fleet, you lose 2 planes, they likely lose 5. Your 10 transports are safe in 113 due to scramble. Your land units are safe, since air hit your fleet, and land only battle with too many units risks taking out the 5 land units and getting stuck in Scotland. Even with the fleet destroyed the 10 transports plus the 5 land units = 25 land units against London, minus 5 defending UK planes lost.

If they ignore the fleet, you get 6 more land units on G3 then otherwise.

If they attack the 5 land units in Scotland, they risk 1 plane to AA, and risk over hitting as 6 planes should get 3 hits, but if they get 4 and a land unit hits….or if the planes hit 3 times, but the land units hit twice also…5 hits total means whatever hit Scotland is stuck there. Uk has to send at least 3 land units to protect its planes from being hit…so worst case scenario, UK pulls out 3 units to prevent 5 extra Germans. The 2 units gained risks 1 defending plane on average. You still have 26 land units to attack London with at least 2 fewer land units (assumes 2 were hit clearing/attacking Scotland) or if Scotland is ignored, 31 land units.

That many dice rolls always leaves the possibility for disaster and I suspect neither attack will occur.
I’ll drop this discussion at this point, as I’m late to the conversation and I’ve made my point. Styles vary.

Question:
If you are defending UK against a sea lion.

What if German builds 4 transports turn 1 and 10 turn 2….Do they need the standard G1 carrier since its a G3 assault?

G1 carrier is a vestige of the pre-scramble days. Forgive me if thats what you have done, I can not read map files at this point.

@Cmdr:

If you use the transport by India you can hit Iraq on Round 2 denying it to Italy. (well, denying the free infantry.)

I still like going after Italy, however.  Kill the Tobruk and Ethiopia stacks and sending your fleet out to India to help against Japan.  It may mean London is gone, but since when does London really matter in this game?  Short of England getting lucky in Africa/Middle East and Japan getting snookered by America?

Cmon Jen, you know better than that.  The whole point of this exercise is to try and see if London can be held.  :roll:

Alsch brings up a good point tho, UK can take Persia UK1, then Iraq UK2(if they want) this means they can bring the armor in Egypt over to Gibraltar instead of attacking Iraq, and bring him to London in lieu of an inf UK2.  ****

Sorry James, but a few pages we went through the numbers of the split German fleet and the major reasons why it is bad, even if you can successfully defend both fleets.  G2 Scotland seems out with this UK counter, please prove otherwise how those ships survive AND attack london G3.

So, going back over the numbers from memory, we got 24 inf (17 purchased, 4 starting in England, and 3 via trn) 3 arm (1 via trn 2 purchased) 6 total ftrs, a tac and an aa gun.  Is anything missing in UK’s defense?  Any units that can be gleaned from any other fronts?

Jim, can you please provide me with a write up as to how many German aircraft on average would survive G1?  I wonder because in this scenario we are hitting both bb’s, it might be less than the starting 5/5/1.  I think if Germany has suffered any air losses they might be unable to take UK on G3!  Viola!

***EDIT:

If this is indeed the conclusion reached, then I think we need to re-look over I1.  Italy may have to attack Algeria in order to remove 1 inf from def of London.

Question 1:  How important is the Carrier fleet in SZ 98 to the stopping of Germany taking England on G4?

Question 2:  How important is Africa to the stopping of the European Axis powers from winning?

Question 3:  Is it better to crush Italy in Tobruk/Ethiopia with Egyptian and Indian forces, even if it may mean not stacking Gibraltar with a couple of guys?

Question 4:  Will those couple of guys make a significant difference to England’s defense?

Question 5:  Would that fleet make a significant difference in protecting India and preventing it’s fall?

@JamesAleman:

Your 10 transports are safe in 113 due to scramble.

Although it’s very dicey, this is where your plan hits a snag.

UK can hit this with 4 Fighters, and will probably win this.

@JimmyHat:

So, going back over the numbers from memory, we got 24 inf (17 purchased, 4 starting in England, and 3 via trn) 3 arm (1 via trn 2 purchased) 6 total ftrs, a tac and an aa gun.  Is anything missing in UK’s defense?  Any units that can be gleaned from any other fronts?

If this is indeed the conclusion reached, then I think we need to re-look over I1.  Italy may have to attack Algeria in order to remove 1 inf from def of London.

Actually we’re assuming that the TT in 106 survived, and therefore London has 4 Arm, 25 Inf.
Also the TT in 109 went back to canada for its reinforcements; the French in North Africa were not used at all.
If the sub in 106 had won that fight and destroyed the TT, then what you said would apply.  That’s just not what we’re going with in this example.

I would, personally, do that with England.  Yes, I’d lose the carriers I had to build possibily, but still worth it.  Note:  If you lose 2 planes in the attack (and you probably will) you can build one of the carriers off the coast of S. Africa to help India or off the coast of Canada.  So it’s not total waste of cash.

Hmm, that is interesting.
Seems like Germany would be leaving way too much up to luck for us to consider this much more.

And you pointed it out - the only subs that can hit 91 are also the only ones that can hit 110.
To rely on this for even a second, Germany would be forced to devote 2 subs to 91…

Plus those odds are sorta poopy anyway.

So we’re saying the UK hit the bb off English channel instead of 106 off Canada??  Considering how important that trn attack is, I think we should have gone with the ‘its destroyed’ option.  Won’t 66 percent of the time germany will win that battle?  Also not sure how the TRN off UK went to canada if there are german subs anywhere nearby.  UK’s only destroyer had to move to sz 104 to block, hence why I was not moving to Canada as UK. (in my german opening i send 3 subs at that dd/trn combo because i want no ground units coming to London)

If UK can hold its capital even through G3 I gotta think we are adding options to their playbook.

In the scenario we’ve been going with, we sent 1 sub to 106.

This gives:
-1/3 chance for Germany to win entirely, destroying both DD and TT

• 1/3 chance for sub and DD to mutually destroy each other, leaving only TT
• 1/3 chance for sub to lose

We went with the middle option.

Yes I did think about a g2 assault, but not sure if you want USA in war that soon.

Regarding the transport protection mentioned earlier for a g3: Leave the Battleship in sz 113, with 3 fighters scrambled, I don’t care what can hit it on turn 3.

Back to G2 Sealion. Here is my thought, hit sz 110 and 111, send 3 subs at sz 109 that leaves 1 sub for 110 and 1 sub for 111 or 112. Hit 112 with BB and CA. Build transports in sz 113 you will want the 10 air units 6 on 110, 4 on 111, and maybe the bomber on 109 see below or put it on 110.

If you clear sz 109,110,111,112. UK must use 91 cruiser to either block naval bombards in 110, or they must sink the BB,CA(if CA lives) in 112 with air and block using the CA in 112.

Itally can get 3 air on 112 to clear the CA. If uk loses planes hitting the CA and BB, turn 2 they fall.
If UK moves ca to 110 to prevent bombardment, Italy hits 110 and clears, if UK scrambles, Italy removes 1 or 2 UK fighters…UK likely falls.

With 3 subs on 109, technically you clear the DD as any hits must be applied there first. If you throw a bomber at that you have 3 sub casualties and might get a round 2, potentially clearing 2 UK air units if they want the DD to live, Italy can still clear a CA,DD in 112, but you have to defend Denmark from a UK landing. Italy can still attack a DD, CA in 110 but that gets ugly and you may not want to use Italy against the UK.

With 5 transports able to hit, UK must defend UK if you lose the BB and CA and don’t like the layout and scrap Sea Lion, you now have 5 transports to use on Russia G2.

Bad thing about G2 assault, unless you build an air base on Holland on G2, and even then, the UK might have assets enough in sz92 to scuttle the German navy in 110 losing 15 transports. Edit: its only 5 lol ignore the bottom part:

The only way to block that is to have Italy land 6 units in Spain 4-5 units on S. France, (Germany would have had to take S. France with armor and mech) and permit the German armor in S. France to seize Gibraltar thus trapping the UK fleet in the Med. (This likely leaves France or Normandy: very bad if extra air makes it to London) Edit: Germany would have to take Normandy with Mech and Armor. These armor then drive south to capture Gibraltar. This then gives you a weak thrust to take Sweden, if you drop artillery from Germany in Norway turn 1 non combat. Not saying a neutral crush is ideal, but it could save 15 transports. It is probably better to lose the transports.

Better plan would be seize Normandy turn 1, build 2 air bases: Holland and Normandy, and then you might save the transports, with a BB, CA, and 6 air units to cover (hopefully) after you seize London.

@jim010:

Against 4 fht, 1 DD, 1 CA odds are 57% for UK

If the CA in sz91 was hit and killed (only successful 50%) it drops to 25%.  Could rejig G1.  Interesting.  We would need to get better odds on sz91, though, as I would not want to risk that CA surviving.

Maybe I’m missing something…  Where are the 4 fighters coming from?  Are assuming that if the CA survives that the UK purchases a CV?  I get 2 fighters from UK and 1 from Scotland.  Normandy is dead way more often than not.  Where’s the 4th?  It can’t reach from Gib, as 91-104-110-112-seazone is a suicide without a carrier purchase.  You aren’t counting the French UK based plane for some reason, are you?

I tried to point earlier back in the thread for the answer, but the short answer is you cannot put your Germ fleet in 113 because UK can block you, now you can’t invade london.  If wondering the particulars, please go a few pages back in the thread and see them.

Personally I think we are making a mistake on G1, but not a big enough deal to mean recalibrating the whole exercise.  I just think Sealion is too dependent on that darn trn off Canada and we should be killing it 95% of the time!  CA off Gib be damned, it helps UK but not as much as that trn to defend Sealion.  It also helps Germ a bit to have subs remain in the Atlantic instead of dolling them out in 1’s and 2’s.

However, based on the results so far, I stick by my earlier comment that UK is safe G3 provided Germany has suffered any air casualties throughout.