The Defense Of Britain

Too personel.  Sorry.

~ Edited.  No problem.  We’re both a little heated.

Let me look them both over, and we should pick the best one.

I prefer an opening with the least amount of variation in outcomes.

So we are doing this as a G4?  Then we should include Russian moves as well.

hmmmm, i still think we should stick to UK/Germ.  Russia is the sword of Damocles, we know its there and what its going to be trying to do.  At most I think we could add 1 ftr for I1 purchase in this case.  I am really interested to see what exactly has retreated from the Med and can hit the German fleet.  I assume we have 10+ trns in sz113 covered by 3 aircraft?

G4 is the only logical conclusion since you really need to stack Scotland to get all the units needed to be guarenteed success in England.  I suppose there is better than even odds on G3, but why risk it when you can do it on G4 and have at least a dozen units left, if not more?

Russian moves shouldn’t really play into account, since Russia cannot go until after G4.  You can demonstrate them if you like, but I am not too worried about them.

If you want too, then add a major complex to Korea and start moving tanks and MI into the Soviet territories, with units retreating out of China.  This should be enough to distract Russia and weaken them to such a point that a 100 IPC build for Germany on G5 can push them back out.

@JimmyHat:

hmmmm, i still think we should stick to UK/Germ.  Russia is the sword of Damocles, we know its there and what its going to be trying to do.  At most I think we could add 1 ftr for I1 purchase in this case.  I am really interested to see what exactly has retreated from the Med and can hit the German fleet.  I assume we have 10+ trns in sz113 covered by 3 aircraft?

If I have to move to SZ 91, then I probably have 7 transports in SZ 112, an airbase in W. Germany an airbase in Norway and 6 aircraft between them.

70 iPC - -15 for the airbase - 49 IPC for Transports (7) leaves enough for an armor to add to my attack.  If I leave the 3 original transports (why wouldn’t I?) that’s 10 transports in SZ 112 with 3 Fighters, 3 Tactical Bombers defending htem. (Just for argument’s sake).

I’m looking the odds over.

The odds in Paris are 72%.  1 in 3 games you won’t take Paris.  Move  the art from Normandy to Paris and that gives you 87% in Paris and still leaves you with 84% in Normandy.

I REALLY don’t like sz112.  Extremely variable.

I’d pull a tac from sz110 to sz112 to make that more predictable.

Thoughts befroe we post a UK 1?

@jim010:

The odds in Paris are 72%.  1 in 3 games you won’t take Paris.  Move  the art from Normandy to Paris and that gives you 87% in Paris and still leaves you with 84% in Normandy.

done

I REALLY don’t like sz112.  Extremely variable.
Cancelled, use Scenario 2

I’d pull a tac from sz110 to sz112 to make that more predictable.
Scenario 2 has +1 Fighter, +1 Tactical in SZ 112

Thoughts befroe we post a UK 1?
Use Scenario 2

as modified below. (I moved one armor from W. France to France…got overly zealous there I guess.)

Scenario2.AAM

I take it, then, it’s 2 players for England vs 1 player for Germany and Italy?  Shouldn’t that be reversed???

Results I am going with:

SZ 91 cleared without loss
SZ 106 cleared with loss of submarine
SZ 111 cleared with loss of submarine
SZ 112 cleared with damage to battleship
W. France taken with loss of 3 infantry
France taken with loss of 4 infantry, 4 mechanized infantry, 2 artillery
Yugoslavia taken with loss of 2 Infantry

Map attached

Scenario2_PostGermany1.AAM

Note, I traded a submarine in SZ 106 for a submarine in SZ 91.  Between those two battles, it could be 2 submarines in SZ 106 and none in SZ 91, or as I described.  Odds are, there are 2 of the 3 German submarines left, however.

I like scenario 1 better, burt with the tac moved from sz110 to sz112.  I probably like this better, as it is pretty much what I like to open.  I don’t like letting the sz110 fleet get away.

I have to go out.  Can we have a consensus as to which is the scenario we are going with before we come up with a UK 1?

Nevermind, I see you went with scenario 2.

I’ll be back later.

I’d probably go scenario 2 if I want to take England.  Scenario 1 if I want to scare England.  Since we are talking about taking England, we should go with 2.   It gives Germany more ground units after attacking France, Scenario 1 costs more ground units.

So then the 92 stack becomes 1 BB, 2-3 CA (depending on 91 results), 1 CV, 1 DD (if not blocking 94; this can be ignored), and 1-2 TT from 98 and maybe 109, depending on whether that TT goes to 106 or 92.  Also the Tac from 98, Fig from Mal.  Any other additional Figs can be based on Gib depending on where UK would like to hold them.

This navy can wreck whatever Germany non-coms to 91 in G2, after destroying the 104 blocker.  And would probably preserve the RAF as well.

Without this navy Sealion really can’t happen, so let’s say that Germany does not stack 91, but still destroys the 104 block.

Then Germany has a
1 BB, 3 CA, 1 CV, 1ish DD Navy to overcome.
Not to say Germany can’t, but the Italian airforce definitely can’t.

Also, the TT from 98 - if maximizing Sealion defense - should bring an Arm from Egy along with whatever Inf (french or Malta) UK wants to bring.

Also if there’s only 1 SS in 106 after G1, the 109 DD could go over, destroy it, and then the Canadian 1 Inf, 1 Arm becomes an option again.
The 110 CA could be used to block in 104 if this is done.

Thats an excellent point, the UK doesn’t have to block the half of the Italian fleet that can attack it, it would be suicide for the Italians.  I was also thinking that you may be able to base 3 or so aircraft out of Malta UK1 to help shepherd the fleet to its destination.  Now I’m wishing I could use the battlemat to see what they have where.

Cmdr Jennifer.  The sz91 attack is wildly variable as well, and not in the favor of the sb.  Hoping for luck there.

Is there something better for that sb to do?

Just reading along, and I have to say…

You guys could prove to me a failsafe way to take out Britain every time, and as an Axis player I’d still go Barbarossa…

Way more fun. Way less mechanical. Way less number crunching. Way more artful.

Jim,

It was a trade off, either there was going to be 2 submarines in SZ 106 or 1 in SZ 106 and 1 in SZ 91.  Since you are attempting to show that England can survive regardless of any reasonably expected results for Germany, we should probably go with the 1 in SZ 106 and 1 in SZ 91 as this is the worst case scenario for England, but well within the realm of reasonably expected results. (Odds are slightly better than 50/50 for Germany.  Think it was 50.4 vs 49.6 for Germany.)

@JimmyHat:

Thats an excellent point, the UK doesn’t have to block the half of the Italian fleet that can attack it, it would be suicide for the Italians.

Granted.  The idea was to suicide the Italians to weaken the British to prevent them from being able to both sink the Germans AND get to SZ 110 with anything of reasonable power.  I’m not saying this is a good idea, and I know it isn’t necessary by any means, but it is a possibility.

Note: as far as I am concerned, each British/French fighter is worth 2 or 3 Italian fighters that is, England needs to kill 3 Italian fighters to justify the loss of one British or French one.  Likewise, each British/French fighter is worth about 1.67 German ones for the same reason.  England needs their aircraft significantly more than Germany or Italy does and Italy, of the four nations discussed, needs them the least.   Those are just my OPINIONS on the value of the fighters and not hard and fast ones either, just ballparks.  They are based on position, ability to be replaced, finances and ability to produce (# of units).