The Defense Of Britain

Jimmy,

Here’s what I do.  Hits everything that needs to be hit with odds greater than 80% in all but sz106.

G1.AAM

What’s stopping Great Britain from building 2 carriers on turn 2? Coupled with the Mediterranean carrier, that makes a total of 3 carriers, 2 cruisers, a few destroyers, 7 fighters and 2 tactical bombers for the Germans to try blast through. There’s no way they can do that. The odds are against them, every time.

On UK 2 you mean?  Then there will be enough German ground units to take London, while the planes and fleet hit the blocking UK fleet.  In the previous scenario, 1 more fht needs to be left behind in London for a total of 5 to drop the G2 (which I didn’t bother to run odds on) to 40%.

Jenn didn’t turn on the AA gun.  She should have only survived with 3 units at 60%, not 8 units.  1 more plane on London shuts the door on it.  My mistake (but no one pointed it out either)

Let me run odds on it.

buy 1 CV, 1 DD, 1 CA?

can’t use 3 CVs - not enough planes to fill them all and have scrambles.  I prefer 2 more ships vs 1 extra CV.

Germany wins 77%

Simulator Question:

What does the first “winning percentage” number represent?  I set a sub attacking against a transport and get 67/32/0.  What on earth, this should be 100% win.  Someone explain this thing to me.

@jim010:

Nice,

but the point is not to pat yourself on the back because you capitalized on an oversight, when I was very happy to let you fix yours.

Jimmy, I give up with Jenn, who doesn’t get it.  Let’s get a G1 opening, and come up with the best UK counter.

I used your map!  Was your map incorrect in some manner?

@jim010:

On UK 2 you mean?  Then there will be enough German ground units to take London, while the planes and fleet hit the blocking UK fleet.  In the previous scenario, 1 more fht needs to be left behind in London for a total of 5 to drop the G2 (which I didn’t bother to run odds on) to 40%.

Jenn didn’t turn on the AA gun.  She should have only survived with 3 units at 60%, not 8 units.  1 more plane on London shuts the door on it.  My mistake (but no one pointed it out either)

I did turn on the AA Gun.

4 Infantry, 4 Figthers, AA Gun
vs
3 Infantry, Artillery, 2 Armor, 4 Fighters, 4 Tactical Bombers, 1 Strategic Bomber

Er what happened to the 9 Inf purchased UK1?

indeed, its almost like you were so in to taking London you didn’t even type out the battles!  I was reading your post and had to figure out what you were attacking with, but not what was defending.  I would think it would be nice to add 1 line:  Germ 4 inf 4 arm 3 ftr 1 tac vs. UK 5 inf 3 ftr aa

The point of this exercise is not to see who can take London faster, but what is the best way to defend London from a G3 assault.  I can give my G1 attacks to see if it is any better than Jen’s option.

G1, build 1 CV 2 trn

Attack
sz 106 w/ sub from sz103, 117 & 108 (98%)
sz 111 w/ sub from sz 118 ftr from Nor, tac and bmb from Germ-tac lands on CV also ftr/tac from Wgerm (99% if no scramble)
sz 112 w/ sub from sz 124, bb CA from sz 113, ftr slovakia (99.7%)
Normandy w/ 3 inf 1 art 2 arm from Belgium, 1 tac from Wgerm (97.6%)
France w/ 1 inf 1 art 1 arm 1 ftr from Belgium, 3inf 1 art 4 mech 1 ftr 1 tac Wgerm, 2 arm S Germ, 1 tac from Poland(95.7%)
Yugo-1 inf 1 arm from Romania, Hungarian troops, armor from Poland, SGerm troops.

Land 2 ftrs in Taranto to dissuade a raid, if attacked don’t scramble.  rest of airforce in WGerm, troops move to embark from Germ to Wgerm.

Did I miss any units?  I sure would like to bring more heat on Paris, is there anything else I can bring?

I thought this scenario was aimed towards a G4 Sealion?
-In order to achieve maximum efficiency regarding German forces.

Well Jim is running this strategic experiment.  I believe the consensus is though a G4 sealion is unavoidably successful, we are trying to find a way to make G3 sealion a no-go.  If you have any strategic insights or moves that might go missed don’t hesitate to interject.

@JimmyHat:

indeed, its almost like you were so in to taking London you didn’t even type out the battles!  I was reading your post and had to figure out what you were attacking with, but not what was defending.  I would think it would be nice to add 1 line:  Germ 4 inf 4 arm 3 ftr 1 tac vs. UK 5 inf 3 ftr aa

Apologies, I was in a rush because you two were sounding impatient with waiting.  Keep in mind I have papers to grade, quizzes to write and lesson plans to plan as well.

13 Infantry, 4 Fighters defending, correct?

Sim: http://www.dskelly.com/misc/aa/aasim.html

• 76.4% defender

So I’d have to alter course, which is fine, since I didn’t originally plan a round 2 attack of England.

Germany would probably go along the lines of 7 Transports, 4 Armor, Artillery with units moving to W. Germany.

Landing 5 ground units and an AA Gun in Scotland.

(Not looking at the map, if I need an airbase in Norway and some aircraft there to protect the new transports then trade in 3 armor for it and get an infantry as well.)

@JimmyHat:

Well Jim is running this strategic experiment.  I believe the consensus is though a G4 sealion is unavoidably successful, we are trying to find a way to make G3 sealion a no-go.  If you have any strategic insights or moves that might go missed don’t hesitate to interject.

THought we were trying to derail a G4 sea lion?  That’s when I go with Sea Lion, why am I even in this discussion on G3 Sea Lion? lol.

Never mind then!  I don’t WANT a G3 Sea Lion, it brings America into the war sooner and your odds are significantly less than a G4 sea lion!

I’m looking into making G4 hurt or defeat as well.

G4 can hurt, but I am not really certain it can be stopped.

Why?

Because on Round 3 you can land 26 ground units in Scotland (or 25 and an AA Gun to dissuade ambitious British field commanders) and on Round 4 utilize 11 aircraft, 2 shore bombardments and 52 ground units.  I just don’t see England having the manpower to stop that, even with full investments. (3 rounds of full investments ~ 85-90 IPC worth of units)

I’m not sold on the Scotland move.  I like it, but that’s because I don’t play vs myself.:)  In this instance, moving to take Scotland means the UK can build something like 2 carriers, place them in the English Channel along with the fleet of Gib, and now your trns in 113 cannot reach UK.  Otherwise can’t UK attack your trns even if they are defended by 6 aircraft, thereby canceling the invasion.

**Edit: what’s on the German carrier?  What are UK’s odds on a strike on those ships?

I hate when work gets in the way of my gaming

I like the Scotland drop strategy, but I do question the specifics of it in parts -

Are we saying landing on G2 in conjunction with the large TT purchase?
If so -
we place the TTs in 113
then do we purchase maybe a DD to protect them along with the scramble?
or do we split the German navy a little to accomplish this as well?

Like putting the CA in 113.
1 BB, 1 CV, 2 Fig is enough to protect the 3 original TT from 3-4 Fig, which is all that can hit them.
As the 92 stack can’t hit the German navy in 111.

Also, 1 CA, 3 scrambled Fig wins against 4 UK fig at 62%.

So this adds up.

Another topic -
Do we purchase the complete 10 TT on G2 to achieve a total of 13 TT?
Or less, along with a supporting land buy?

Then-
Do we actually hit Scotland on G2 to reinforce on G3,
or do we simply hit Scotland on G3?
This would lower the force in Scoland by 5-6 troops (depending on AA gun drop)

Possibility:
We could hit Scotland on G2, and not purchase the full 10 TT.
But then we reinforce Scotland on G3 to make up for whatever fewer TT we did not buy.
I think, then, we could get away with not buying 10 TT, and make up the difference with that initial G2 Scotland invasion.
Thoughts?

The dd build should be sufficient, along with 3 scrambling ftrs to dissuade UK from hitting sz113.  However a UK naval build will block the movement of those trns to London.  If they are built in 112 they cannot be blocked.  I think hitting Scotland is a mistake here, but I will wait for input from others first.

***EDIT:
provided there is no move to Scotland, Germany then would not need to build the dd, getting 10 trns instead.  This means they can hit london G3 with 13 trn loads, or 13 inf, 5 art 8 arm plus remaining aircraft.  Thats against, as best as I see it- 24 inf, 1 arm 6 ftrs 1 tac aa.  I reached 24inf by adding 2 frenchies from Africa and 1 inf Egypt 1 inf Malta.  the numbers in that dskelly site reveal:

18.5% clears
68.6% attacker
12.9% defender (these numbers reflect Germ attacking with 5 ftr 5 tac 1 lvl)

Of course we don’t know the OOL for that site, so those numbers don’t really mean that much, however most ties will go to the attacker because they will leave 1 arm to capture.  Thats a decent chance at a G3 sealion, what am I missing?

@jim010:

I’m looking into making G4 hurt or defeat as well.

My playing partner and I have been thinking about this also.  I tentatively agree with Jen that I don’t really think a G4 Sealion can be stopped.  So, one of the proposals we had was to sink the German fleet after Sealion.  The jest of the plan is that Russia buys enough naval units (for sz 127) to take a territory that US bombers could land on.  On R4, they could take Norway, Scotland, even Eire could be a valid landing zone.  US buys bombers to a varying degree on US1, 2, or 3 and then on US4, bam sink the German fleet.  Would it cripple Germany?  Probably not, but it sure the hell would reduce its flexability!

Could Germany stop Russia from taking these territories?  I don’t know.  If they had to defend all those territories or contend with a Russian fleet and US bombers, would that change the Sealion calculus?  Heck, if there was a possibility of losing its fleet, would Germany abandon Sealion?  I don’t know.  I am posing more questions than I have answers to.

Edit:  Of course this only applies to a G4 Sealion.  If Germany does a G3, then all bets are off since Russia and the US can’t do anything to the German fleet.