The Defense Of Britain

The odds in Paris are 72%.  1 in 3 games you won’t take Paris.  Move  the art from Normandy to Paris and that gives you 87% in Paris and still leaves you with 84% in Normandy.

I REALLY don’t like sz112.  Extremely variable.

I’d pull a tac from sz110 to sz112 to make that more predictable.

Thoughts befroe we post a UK 1?

@jim010:

The odds in Paris are 72%.  1 in 3 games you won’t take Paris.  Move  the art from Normandy to Paris and that gives you 87% in Paris and still leaves you with 84% in Normandy.

done

I REALLY don’t like sz112.  Extremely variable.
Cancelled, use Scenario 2

I’d pull a tac from sz110 to sz112 to make that more predictable.
Scenario 2 has +1 Fighter, +1 Tactical in SZ 112

Thoughts befroe we post a UK 1?
Use Scenario 2

as modified below. (I moved one armor from W. France to France…got overly zealous there I guess.)

Scenario2.AAM

I take it, then, it’s 2 players for England vs 1 player for Germany and Italy?  Shouldn’t that be reversed???

Results I am going with:

SZ 91 cleared without loss
SZ 106 cleared with loss of submarine
SZ 111 cleared with loss of submarine
SZ 112 cleared with damage to battleship
W. France taken with loss of 3 infantry
France taken with loss of 4 infantry, 4 mechanized infantry, 2 artillery
Yugoslavia taken with loss of 2 Infantry

Map attached

Scenario2_PostGermany1.AAM

Note, I traded a submarine in SZ 106 for a submarine in SZ 91.  Between those two battles, it could be 2 submarines in SZ 106 and none in SZ 91, or as I described.  Odds are, there are 2 of the 3 German submarines left, however.

I like scenario 1 better, burt with the tac moved from sz110 to sz112.  I probably like this better, as it is pretty much what I like to open.  I don’t like letting the sz110 fleet get away.

I have to go out.  Can we have a consensus as to which is the scenario we are going with before we come up with a UK 1?

Nevermind, I see you went with scenario 2.

I’ll be back later.

I’d probably go scenario 2 if I want to take England.  Scenario 1 if I want to scare England.  Since we are talking about taking England, we should go with 2.   It gives Germany more ground units after attacking France, Scenario 1 costs more ground units.

So then the 92 stack becomes 1 BB, 2-3 CA (depending on 91 results), 1 CV, 1 DD (if not blocking 94; this can be ignored), and 1-2 TT from 98 and maybe 109, depending on whether that TT goes to 106 or 92.  Also the Tac from 98, Fig from Mal.  Any other additional Figs can be based on Gib depending on where UK would like to hold them.

This navy can wreck whatever Germany non-coms to 91 in G2, after destroying the 104 blocker.  And would probably preserve the RAF as well.

Without this navy Sealion really can’t happen, so let’s say that Germany does not stack 91, but still destroys the 104 block.

Then Germany has a
1 BB, 3 CA, 1 CV, 1ish DD Navy to overcome.
Not to say Germany can’t, but the Italian airforce definitely can’t.

Also, the TT from 98 - if maximizing Sealion defense - should bring an Arm from Egy along with whatever Inf (french or Malta) UK wants to bring.

Also if there’s only 1 SS in 106 after G1, the 109 DD could go over, destroy it, and then the Canadian 1 Inf, 1 Arm becomes an option again.
The 110 CA could be used to block in 104 if this is done.

Thats an excellent point, the UK doesn’t have to block the half of the Italian fleet that can attack it, it would be suicide for the Italians.  I was also thinking that you may be able to base 3 or so aircraft out of Malta UK1 to help shepherd the fleet to its destination.  Now I’m wishing I could use the battlemat to see what they have where.

Cmdr Jennifer.  The sz91 attack is wildly variable as well, and not in the favor of the sb.  Hoping for luck there.

Is there something better for that sb to do?

Just reading along, and I have to say…

You guys could prove to me a failsafe way to take out Britain every time, and as an Axis player I’d still go Barbarossa…

Way more fun. Way less mechanical. Way less number crunching. Way more artful.

Jim,

It was a trade off, either there was going to be 2 submarines in SZ 106 or 1 in SZ 106 and 1 in SZ 91.  Since you are attempting to show that England can survive regardless of any reasonably expected results for Germany, we should probably go with the 1 in SZ 106 and 1 in SZ 91 as this is the worst case scenario for England, but well within the realm of reasonably expected results. (Odds are slightly better than 50/50 for Germany.  Think it was 50.4 vs 49.6 for Germany.)

@JimmyHat:

Thats an excellent point, the UK doesn’t have to block the half of the Italian fleet that can attack it, it would be suicide for the Italians.

Granted.  The idea was to suicide the Italians to weaken the British to prevent them from being able to both sink the Germans AND get to SZ 110 with anything of reasonable power.  I’m not saying this is a good idea, and I know it isn’t necessary by any means, but it is a possibility.

Note: as far as I am concerned, each British/French fighter is worth 2 or 3 Italian fighters that is, England needs to kill 3 Italian fighters to justify the loss of one British or French one.  Likewise, each British/French fighter is worth about 1.67 German ones for the same reason.  England needs their aircraft significantly more than Germany or Italy does and Italy, of the four nations discussed, needs them the least.   Those are just my OPINIONS on the value of the fighters and not hard and fast ones either, just ballparks.  They are based on position, ability to be replaced, finances and ability to produce (# of units).

@Stalingradski:

Just reading along, and I have to say…

You guys could prove to me a failsafe way to take out Britain every time, and as an Axis player I’d still go Barbarossa…

Way more fun. Way less mechanical. Way less number crunching. Way more artful.

Look at the kill America first strategy that was posted by ghb34.  That’s artful! (Note, I am not saying successful, I am saying artful.)

No, go with 2 in 106, or 2/3 UK keeps the TT.

1 sb in 91 it is 50%.  Having a cruiser every other game will have to be calculated.

I’ll check it out!

Jen - I appreciate that you didn’t take offense - none was meant… this thread is a valid and fun (and fun is most important) pursuit. To me, it’s just that finding a strategy that always works becomes old quickly, and one trades away part of the soul of the game, which to me is the artistry of movement, feint, strafe, purchase, logistics, and grand strategy. Winning is nice, of course, but takes a back seat to a well-played game, win or lose. For this old timer, that’s why I play.

And it is my opinion that it is the jousting between Germany and Russia, in this version in particular, that makes it spectacular. Sealion throws that out of whack. For me. To each their own!

Maybe I’m biased because I enjoy reading about the Ost Front so much.

I will say, I did read this entire thread, so I’m obviously interested…

I have read your discussion with great interest. However, I believe another variable will achieve better results and quicker. (Much as we all know depends on the dice) As follows:
G1: 2TK,2TT,Art
SZ 112: BB, CA, Ft Hungary,Tac Pol
SZ 111: 2Subs, 1Tac Germany, 1 Tac W.Ger, 2Ft W.Ger
SZ 110: 2 Subs, 2Tac W.Ger, Ft, Hol, Ft, Nor
SZ 109: 1 Sub, 1SBM Ger
Nor: 2 Inf to Fin
Yugo: 3 tanks from Rom, Pol, Hungary plus 6INf and 2Art from S.Ger
Yugo: 2 Inf from Hungary
Bulgaria: 1 Inf from Rom
Normandy: 3Inf, Art, TK from Hol
France: 1Inf, 1 Art, 2TK from Hol, 3 Inf, 4 Mech, 1Art from W.Ger, 2 TK from S.Ger
It does leave the TT alone in SZ 106, assumes at least 1-2 subs left.
G2: 30+19 (Paris)+10 (bonus)+11(Fin,Normandy,Paris,Yugo,Bulgaria)

G2:70: 10TT: Peace Move 3TK from Yugo to W.Ger. and remaining Art. from Paris or Hol and move 5-6 INF from Ger back to W.Ger.
Clean up any british fleet with planes landed in Hol and W.Ger along w/remaining subs and new DD’s.
G3: 30+11+10=51: 10INFGer,Tac,Ft. Invade UK with 13TT, fleet,10TK,3Art,13INF,10-11 Planes (UK has equal INF fodder and much fewer TK and Planes)
G4:Build Inf,subs,planes defends Russia and UK
Sargon the Assyrian Warrior

UK 1

CM on map.

Buy 9 inf save $1

See if there are improvements to make.

Didn’t leave a blocker in sz94.  Italians can hit sz92 and lose 99% and UK will survive with6 units on average.

uk1.AAM

I will point out that in the games that Germany gets 2 hits in sz112 and loses sz91, then UK should hit sz112 on its turn with all planes and ships.  UK wins that 51% when these conditions are met 1 in 4 games.

I have a question for all about Convoy Disruption. I know that subs on station claim 2IPC per sub. Thus, if I put one sub in SZ 119 Scotland/UK loses 2IPC. If I put 10 subs in SZ 119 or 109 does the UK (London) lose 20 IPC or is it limited to 6IPC which is the value of Britain?
Sargon the Assyrian Warrior