I only play people on this forum these days, nearly all of which are hardly “inexperienced” any longer.
However, if America is sending what it can to England, it is not taking S. America nor is it building anything to stop Japan from taking and holding W. USA. If it is taking S. America and preventing Japan from owning the Western Half of N. America, it is not sending what it can to England. In either event, America is neutralized and Japan can focus on ANZAC then England, which is the point.
The Burma Road is closed on J1, reclosed on J2 and permanently closed on J3. It is such in every game I have ever seen to date (Alpha 2 rules, OOB it was closed permanently on J2). Any entertainment that it may remain open to allow the purchase of Artillery confounds the fates of the universe. Any thought it can be kept open once China has been reduced to less than half a dozen infantry and a fighter is beyond comprehension of even a confounded fate, it boggles the minds of everyone, I fear. Japan needs no investment on the mainland to effect this result.
England, with barely 15 IPC income itself, is not going to pose any threat to Japan. With minimal investment (60% of what England can build or roughly 9 IPC per round) should be more than effective to lock England in Calcutta preventing any reinforcement of China. (This does not count as investment as mentioned above, because this effects England, not China. Thus no investment is made into China.)
ANZAC, the pittance it is, is also collecting 15 IPC but starts out even weaker than England. Crushing it like a bug shouldn’t take too long, and once that is accomplished - even if W. USA is not taken, results in Axis victory for Japan shall surely have 6 Victory Cities. Hong Kong, Honolulu, Manila, Sydeny, that Chinese one and Tokyo.
Remember, the idea is to win the game, not take the capitols. If Germany can pull the United States Air Corps out of N. America, then Japan can dedicate more ships and planes to crushing ANZAC/England faster. Since China has no real ability to be a threat early in the game, all Japan has to do is stop them from having the Burma road open prior to build units phase. That shouldn’t be an issue. You have 28 ground units in China at the start of the game. China has 16. Japan has the ability to produce 13 ground units a round, China has the ability to produce 4, England 5. That’s a losing proposition for the Allies regardless of how you feel about a J1 sneak attack. To add even more, Japan has enough fighters that throwing them away isn’t an issue. I’ve attacked 2 infantry and a fighter in China with nothing but aircraft specifically to destroy that fighter. I would have similar interest in doing that to England.
Meanwhile, if America does stick to the Pacific, Japan has only to prevent naval assets from being developed while Germany crushes Russia. (Which will have at least 4 or 5 less IPC with Japan in the Soviet Far East.) That only requires 60% of the income of the united allied income, which Japan should be more than capable of creating with all islands under its control. (Probably ANZAC too, that’s +20 IPC in NOs alone.)