Japan must plan for the eventuality that America will attack its fleet. To fail to do so invites a devastating attack that will result in no less than 11 Convoy Raid Damage per round and the irrevocable destruction of the Japanese fleet.
However, America does not need to engage in the battle if the odds are not in their favor. Since America is in such a prime position to replace any losses in the field, and since they have allies that can bear the brunt of trading off control of sea zones, America is in the enviable position to determine when, if ever, and with what to attack the Japanese fleet.
This is what I allude to in my statements. Japan must prevent the sinking of their fleet as they cannot replace it. America can trade sinking of the Japanese fleet for the counter attack from Japan sinking their fleet because America can afford to build the fleet (to the tune of twice as fast as Japan can! Furthermore, America probably has ships in the pipeline, Japan is already in SZ 6, there is no pipeline!)
It cannot be a mistake for America to attack early, America may not declare war on Japan until the end of Round 3.
If you refer to America ensuring it has the units to clear SZ 6, then yes, one has to be wary and ensure they have enough to do the job. Attacking on round 4 is probably not wise as Japan will have enough units in range to sink what you have left over. Attacking on round 8 is probably wise as Japan cannot possibly have the forces to clear out what America has left (since America has 80 IPC worth of units 1 rounds from SZ 6 on their next turn, whereas Japan no longer has any naval pressence and only what little air power is left after retaliating against America.)
In regards to the Dutch East Indies, these are territories that should be taken by India (with the possible exception of either Java or Sumatra, so that Australia has an even 24 IPC so they can field 3 destroyers a round, as outlined. Of course, Celebes and Formosa works for that as well!) There is just no reason for America to have ships down by SZ 41 or 42 at any point in time. If Japan leaves their ships down there, America should set up blockades in the north and let the Japanese have the DEI.
Why? 22 IPC in Convoy Raid Damage, vastly reduced ability for Japan to build naval units, prime position to start nailing the Japanese hide to the wall by bringing troops over from Alaska and Okinawa makes a very sweet spot to send Strategic Bombers over to pummel the industrial complex there. (On Average an American Strat Bomber will do 4 IPC in damage and cost America 2 IPC. Given the income differential, this only exasperates Japan’s hopes and speeds up the process. Not to mention strat bombers are not limited to strategic bombing raids, they are perfectly adept in sinking Japanese ships!)
It is a mistake for Japan to initiate hostilities too soon. Round 3 is fine. Rounds 1 or 2 is generally a very bad idea. For one, you lose out on the FIC NO. For another, on round 1 there is no hope of getting the DEI. (I know I explained this above, perhaps this time you will read it.) For another, America will INSTANTLY collect +20 IPC a round. For another, America’s complexes instantly become major complexes. For another thing, America can immediately declare war on Germany and Italy, thus, if those nations did not do so well, America can ignore Japan and go all in to Europe, if it really wants too. Just because I am stating that Japan has no chance against a fully determined America does not mean that America is inept at going into Europe very heavily.
What does Japan gain?
Turn-About!
Explain, IN DETAIL, how you will stop America from bottling up Japan.
How are you spending 40 IPC a round on warships and 40 IPC a round on ground units to invade China?
How are you simultaneously keeping your airpower close enough to defend your ships AND using them to strike deep into Russia and China?
And, since you are now spending double what you earn, I am assuming you cannot also be building industrial complexes, or are we tripling Japan’s income?
How are you keeping your ships in SZ 41 and SZ 6?
How are you threatening India, Australia and Hawaii simultaneously with the same ships?
How are you taking Russia with Germany without taking England?
How is Russia failing to prevent Germany from getting a victory city win, when all they have to do is retreat and hold one victory city from falling?
I am quite sure we would all like to know. It seems to be the argument used by Herr NCSCSwitch on a routine basis. He was famous for double counting his units (“They attack here AND they attack here this round…”). Sure, if you can use your units twice, and you can spend your money twice, then Japan is perfectly capable of keeping Australia, India, China, Russia and America at bay!
If they are not, then explain yourself, sir. How do you envision this grand Japanese battle plan? How do you explain a Japan that is woefully outspent every round, a Japan without enough units or ways to produce enough units attacking and beating nations with enough units and with plenty of ways of producing and deploying new units exactly where and when they need them? How are you countering China, Russia and England on land AND America and Australia at sea?