M7574 & EM (axis) vs Anchovy & moulinex (allies) G40 alpha +2

@Panther Thanks Panther! I thought of putting it there.

@VictoryFirst Game History

Round: 1 Purchase Units - Americans Americans buy 3 fighters; Remaining resources: 4 PUs; Combat Move - Americans Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Removing units owned by Germans from Davis Strait Sea Zone: 1 submarine EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode 2 infantry moved from United States to U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone 2 infantry and 1 transport moved from U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone to South Atlantic Sea Zone 2 infantry moved from South Atlantic Sea Zone to Morocco Americans take Morocco from Germans Combat - Americans Non Combat Move - Americans Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode EDIT: 1 destroyer moved from U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone to Davis Strait Sea Zone 1 bomber and 1 fighter moved from United States to Davis Strait Sea Zone 1 bomber moved from Davis Strait Sea Zone to United Kingdom 1 fighter moved from Davis Strait Sea Zone to Iceland Place Units - Americans 3 fighters placed in United States Turn Complete - Americans Americans collect 41 PUs; end with 45 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

AAE-game14-A1.tsvg

@AndrewAAGamer

I was considered to be the “math nerd” in high school lol. Probabilities isn’t necessarily my strong point although I do know how to calculate basic stuff.

Are you also saying there will be Very Bad dice in at least one area 8.7% of the time?

Yes. The logic behind this is as follows. Suppose you make a probability tree of this. Let’s say there are only two areas for clarity.

Sorry for the bad handwriting, this was just a quick sketch to illustrate my explanation.
6977bae1-8c5c-402b-a7a8-9edd33584043-image.png

BD = Bad Dice
Encircled are the paths in which at least one area has BD for the Allies. To calculate the probabilty of an entire series of nodes to occur, you multiply the percentages of the entire path.

So then we get this.
BD EG + BD CAEN = 23% * 23% = 5.3%
BD EG + No BD CAEN = 23% * 77% = 17.7%
No BD EG + BD CAEN = 77% * 23% = 17.7%
Thus, the Allies have 5.3% + 17.7% + 17.7% = 40.7% to get Bad Dice in at least one area.

However, this is also equal to 100% minus the chance there is no BD for the Allies in either two areas.
100% - 77% * 77% = 100% - 59.3% = 40.7%

So the latter method is essentially a much quicker way to calculate this. Instead of three calculations, we are making one. In cases of many possibilities, this will save a lot of comptutation time while basically achieving the same thing.

I will take a deep look at your game with Ragnell.

@The_Good_Captain cf34f613-d2ba-45a3-ace5-acd41474d491-image.png

About to go on a series of work calls. For when I get back later, how do you want to handle this fight?

@Ragnell804

Game History

Round: 3 Purchase Units - Americans Americans buy 2 artilleries, 4 infantry and 3 transports; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; Combat Move - Americans 1 infantry moved from Morocco to South Atlantic Sea Zone 1 infantry and 1 transport moved from South Atlantic Sea Zone to Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone 1 infantry moved from Strait of Gibraltar Sea Zone to Gibraltar British take Gibraltar from Germans 1 infantry moved from Morocco to Algeria Americans take Algeria from Germans 1 destroyer moved from U.S. Convoy 2 Sea Zone to British Convoy 3 Sea Zone 1 destroyer moved from Celtic Sea Sea Zone to British Convoy 3 Sea Zone 1 bomber moved from United Kingdom to British Convoy 3 Sea Zone 1 fighter moved from United Kingdom to Leningrad 1 destroyer moved from Celtic Sea Sea Zone to English Channel Sea Zone 3 artilleries and 3 infantry moved from United States to U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone 3 artilleries, 3 infantry and 3 transports moved from U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone to Celtic Sea Sea Zone 3 artilleries and 3 infantry moved from Celtic Sea Sea Zone to United Kingdom Combat - Americans Battle in British Convoy 3 Sea Zone Americans attack with 1 bomber and 2 destroyers Germans defend with 1 submarine Americans roll dice for 1 bomber and 2 destroyers in British Convoy 3 Sea Zone, round 2 : 2/3 hits, 1.67 expected hits Germans roll dice for 1 submarine in British Convoy 3 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits 1 submarine owned by the Germans lost in British Convoy 3 Sea Zone Americans win, taking British Convoy 3 Sea Zone from Germans with 1 bomber and 2 destroyers remaining. Battle score for attacker is 8 Casualties for Germans: 1 submarine Non Combat Move - Americans 1 bomber moved from British Convoy 3 Sea Zone to United Kingdom Place Units - Americans 3 transports placed in U.S. Eastern Coast Sea Zone 2 artilleries and 4 infantry placed in United States Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Removing units owned by Americans from United Kingdom: 1 bomber EDIT: Adding units owned by Americans to Morocco: 1 bomber EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode Turn Complete - Americans Americans collect 42 PUs; end with 42 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Americans regular : 0.33 Germans regular : -0.33

USA3.tsvg

@The_Good_Captain

Game History

Round: 4 Purchase Units - British Note to players British: <body><b>All powers can now produce tank units!<b></body> Condition TankProductionBritish: British has their production frontier changed to: lateWarProduction British buy 4 artilleries, 2 infantry and 2 tanks; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; Combat Move - British 1 battleship moved from SZ 23 to SZ 25 3 infantry moved from Sevastopol to Persia 1 transport moved from SZ 8 to SZ 9 4 infantry moved from London to SZ 9 4 infantry moved from SZ 9 to Belgium 2 artilleries and 2 infantry moved from Canada to SZ 2 1 infantry moved from Rhodesia to Belgian Congo 1 infantry moved from Rhodesia to Angola British take Angola from Germans 1 artillery moved from Rhodesia to Angola 1 infantry moved from Rhodesia to Belgian Congo 1 artillery and 8 infantry moved from India to Persia Combat - British British creates battle in territory Togoland Combat Move - British Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Removing units owned by French from Togoland: 1 infantry EDIT: Adding units owned by French to SZ 24: 1 infantry EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode Turning on Edit Mode EDIT: Removing units owned by French from SZ 17: 1 transport EDIT: Adding units owned by French to SZ 14: 1 transport EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode Place Units - British 4 artilleries, 2 infantry and 2 tanks placed in India Turn Complete - British British collect 35 PUs; end with 35 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

FrUK4.tsvg

TripleA Turn Summary: French round 10

TripleA Turn Summary for game: WW2 Path to Victory

Game History

Round: 10 Combat Move - ANZAC 1 cruiser moved from 78 Sea Zone to 83 Sea Zone Combat - ANZAC Non Combat Move - ANZAC Combat Move - French Non Combat Move - French 1 cruiser and 1 destroyer moved from 115 Sea Zone to 113 Sea Zone Turn Complete - French

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Savegame

TripleA Turn Summary: Germans round 9

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World At War

Game History

Round: 9 Combat Move - Germans 1 unit repaired. 3 ArmoredCars, 1 Mech.Inf and 9 Tanks moved from Kursk to Moscow 1 Adv.Fighter and 1 Bomber moved from Kiev to Moscow 2 ArmoredCars and 2 Tanks moved from Leningrad to Arkhangelsk 1 Artillery and 2 Infantrys moved from S.Karelia to Arkhangelsk 2 Artillerys and 2 Infantrys moved from Hamburg to 22 Sea Zone 3 Transports moved from 21 Sea Zone to 22 Sea Zone 1 Artillery moved from Hamburg to 22 Sea Zone 4 Infantrys moved from Netherlands to 22 Sea Zone 1 Infantry moved from Hamburg to 22 Sea Zone 3 Artillerys, 2 Destroyers, 7 Infantrys and 5 Transports moved from 22 Sea Zone to 21 Sea Zone 3 Artillerys, 7 Infantrys and 2 JetFighters moved from 21 Sea Zone to Manchester 1 Bomber moved from Hamburg to Manchester 4 Adv.Fighters moved from Netherlands to Manchester 1 Adv.Fighter moved from Bavaria to 20 Sea Zone 1 Adv.Fighter moved from Bohemia to 20 Sea Zone 1 Artillery and 1 Infantry moved from Upper Norrland to Finnmark 1 Artillery and 1 Elite moved from Nordland to Finnmark Purchase Units - Germans Germans buy 2 Adv.Fighters, 4 ArmoredCars, 4 Artillerys, 1 Elite, 2 HeavyTanks, 17 Infantrys, 2 Mech.Infs, 1 S.Submarine and 2 Tanks; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; Combat - Germans Battle in Finnmark Germans attack with 2 Artillerys, 1 Elite and 1 Infantry Neutral defend with 1 Infantry Germans roll dice for 2 Artillerys, 1 Elite and 1 Infantry in Finnmark, round 2 : 2/4 hits, 1.50 expected hits Neutral roll dice for 1 Infantry in Finnmark, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits 1 Infantry owned by the Neutral lost in Finnmark Germans loses 0 PUs for violating Finnmarks neutrality. Germans win, taking Finnmark from Neutral with 2 Artillerys, 1 Elite and 1 Infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 2 Casualties for Neutral: 1 Infantry Battle in 20 Sea Zone Germans attack with 2 Adv.Fighters British defend with 1 Submarine Germans roll dice for 2 Adv.Fighters in 20 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 1.00 expected hits 1 Submarine owned by the British submerged Battle in Manchester Germans attack with 4 Adv.Fighters, 3 Artillerys, 1 Bomber, 7 Infantrys and 2 JetFighters British defend with 1 AAGun, 1 Artillery, 1 Factory, 12 Infantrys and 3 Tanks British roll AA dice in Manchester : 0/7 hits, 1.17 expected hits Germans roll dice for 1 Battleship and 1 Cruiser in Manchester, round 2 : 2/2 hits, 1.17 expected hits 2 Infantrys owned by the British lost in Manchester Germans roll dice for 4 Adv.Fighters, 3 Artillerys, 1 Bomber, 7 Infantrys and 2 JetFighters in Manchester, round 2 : 10/17 hits, 6.67 expected hits British roll dice for 1 Artillery, 10 Infantrys and 3 Tanks in Manchester, round 2 : 6/14 hits, 5.17 expected hits 6 Infantrys owned by the Germans lost in Manchester 10 Infantrys owned by the British lost in Manchester Germans roll dice for 4 Adv.Fighters, 3 Artillerys, 1 Bomber, 1 Infantry and 2 JetFighters in Manchester, round 3 : 6/11 hits, 5.33 expected hits British roll dice for 1 Artillery and 3 Tanks in Manchester, round 3 : 1/4 hits, 1.83 expected hits 1 Infantry owned by the Germans lost in Manchester 3 Tanks owned by the British and 1 Artillery owned by the British lost in Manchester Germans winGermans win with 2 Adv.Fighters remaining, taking Manchester from British with 4 Adv.Fighters, 3 Artillerys, 1 Bomber and 2 JetFighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is 29 Casualties for British: 1 Artillery, 12 Infantrys and 3 Tanks Casualties for Germans: 7 Infantrys Battle in Moscow Germans attack with 1 Adv.Fighter, 3 ArmoredCars, 1 Bomber, 1 Mech.Inf and 9 Tanks Russians defend with 1 AAGun, 3 Artillerys, 1 Factory, 2 HeavyTanks, 3 Infantrys and 2 Tanks Russians roll AA dice in Moscow : 1/2 hits, 0.33 expected hits 1 Adv.Fighter owned by the Germans lost in Moscow Germans roll dice for 3 ArmoredCars, 1 Bomber, 1 Mech.Inf and 9 Tanks in Moscow, round 2 : 6/14 hits, 6.50 expected hits Russians roll dice for 3 Artillerys, 2 HeavyTanks, 3 Infantrys and 2 Tanks in Moscow, round 2 : 4/10 hits, 4.33 expected hits 3 ArmoredCars owned by the Germans and 1 Mech.Inf owned by the Germans lost in Moscow 3 Infantrys owned by the Russians and 3 Artillerys owned by the Russians lost in Moscow Germans roll dice for 1 Bomber and 9 Tanks in Moscow, round 3 : 3/10 hits, 5.17 expected hits Russians roll dice for 2 HeavyTanks and 2 Tanks in Moscow, round 3 : 2/4 hits, 2.33 expected hits 2 Tanks owned by the Germans lost in Moscow 2 Tanks owned by the Russians and 1 HeavyTank owned by the Russians lost in Moscow Germans roll dice for 1 Bomber and 7 Tanks in Moscow, round 4 : 4/8 hits, 4.17 expected hits Russians roll dice for 1 HeavyTank in Moscow, round 4 : 1/1 hits, 0.67 expected hits 1 Tank owned by the Germans lost in Moscow 1 HeavyTank owned by the Russians lost in Moscow Germans captures 87PUs while taking Russians capital Germans win, taking Moscow from Russians with 1 Bomber and 6 Tanks remaining. Battle score for attacker is -1 Casualties for Germans: 1 Adv.Fighter, 3 ArmoredCars, 1 Mech.Inf and 3 Tanks Casualties for Russians: 3 Artillerys, 2 HeavyTanks, 3 Infantrys and 2 Tanks Battle in Arkhangelsk Germans attack with 2 ArmoredCars, 1 Artillery, 2 Infantrys and 2 Tanks Russians defend with 1 AAGun, 3 Artillerys, 1 Factory and 3 Infantrys Germans roll dice for 2 ArmoredCars, 1 Artillery, 2 Infantrys and 2 Tanks in Arkhangelsk, round 2 : 2/7 hits, 2.50 expected hits Russians roll dice for 3 Artillerys and 3 Infantrys in Arkhangelsk, round 2 : 3/6 hits, 2.00 expected hits 1 ArmoredCar owned by the Germans and 2 Infantrys owned by the Germans lost in Arkhangelsk 2 Infantrys owned by the Russians lost in Arkhangelsk Germans roll dice for 1 ArmoredCar, 1 Artillery and 2 Tanks in Arkhangelsk, round 3 : 2/4 hits, 1.67 expected hits Russians roll dice for 3 Artillerys and 1 Infantry in Arkhangelsk, round 3 : 2/4 hits, 1.33 expected hits 1 ArmoredCar owned by the Germans and 1 Artillery owned by the Germans lost in Arkhangelsk 1 Infantry owned by the Russians and 1 Artillery owned by the Russians lost in Arkhangelsk Germans roll dice for 2 Tanks in Arkhangelsk, round 4 : 1/2 hits, 1.00 expected hits Russians roll dice for 2 Artillerys in Arkhangelsk, round 4 : 1/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits 1 Tank owned by the Germans lost in Arkhangelsk 1 Artillery owned by the Russians lost in Arkhangelsk Germans roll dice for 1 Tank in Arkhangelsk, round 5 : 0/1 hits, 0.50 expected hits Russians roll dice for 1 Artillery in Arkhangelsk, round 5 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits 1 Tank owned by the Germans lost in Arkhangelsk Russians win with 1 Artillery remaining. Battle score for attacker is -12 Casualties for Germans: 2 ArmoredCars, 1 Artillery, 2 Infantrys and 2 Tanks Casualties for Russians: 2 Artillerys and 3 Infantrys Non Combat Move - Germans 1 Adv.Fighter could not land in 20 Sea Zone and was removed 1 Elite, 4 Infantrys and 2 Tanks moved from Kiev to Kursk 1 AAGun, 2 Artillerys, 2 Elites and 2 Tanks moved from Kursk to Yaroslavl 1 Bomber moved from Moscow to Kursk 2 Artillerys, 2 Elites and 14 Infantrys moved from Brest to Kiev 2 ArmoredCars, 3 Infantrys and 2 Tanks moved from Vinnytsia to Kiev 2 Artillerys and 3 Infantrys moved from Krakow to Vinnytsia 1 Artillery, 2 Elites and 1 Infantry moved from Warsaw to Brest 2 Mech.Infs moved from Bavaria to Brest 8 Infantrys moved from Aquitaine to Languedoc 8 Infantrys moved from Brittany to Aquitaine 10 Infantrys moved from Normandy to Brittany 8 Infantrys moved from Paris to Normandy 2 Artillerys and 2 Infantrys moved from Rhine to Netherlands 1 Adv.Fighter moved from 20 Sea Zone to Netherlands 4 Adv.Fighters moved from Manchester to 21 Sea Zone 2 Adv.Fighters moved from 21 Sea Zone to Netherlands 1 Bomber moved from Manchester to Netherlands 2 JetFighters moved from Manchester to 21 Sea Zone 2 Adv.Fighters moved from 21 Sea Zone to Netherlands Place Units - Germans 3 Artillerys and 3 Infantrys placed in Hamburg 3 Infantrys placed in Normandy 8 Infantrys placed in Paris Germans undo move 2. 1 S.Submarine placed in 20 Sea Zone 2 Infantrys placed in Normandy 1 Artillery, 1 Elite and 2 Infantrys placed in Warsaw 2 HeavyTanks, 1 Infantry and 2 Tanks placed in Bohemia 2 Adv.Fighters and 1 Infantry placed in Rhine 3 ArmoredCars placed in Bavaria 1 ArmoredCar and 2 Mech.Infs placed in Berlin Turn Complete - Germans Germans collect 142 PUs; end with 229 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

British AA : -1.17 Russians regular : 2.33 Germans regular : 0.83 Russians AA : 0.67 British regular : -0.00 Neutral regular : -0.33

Savegame