M7574 & EM (axis) vs Anchovy & moulinex (allies) G40 alpha +2

1d1000<=1: 939; Hits: 0
1d1000<=1: 190; Hits: 0
1d1000<=1: 429; Hits: 0
1d1000<=1: 972; Hits: 0
1d1000<=1: 47; Hits: 0

Just wondering, where is the return fire of the German submarines in both naval battles?

TripleA Turn Summary: Germans round 3

TripleA Turn Summary for game: Europe Improved

Game History

Round: 3 Purchase Units - Germans Germans buy 9 armour; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; Combat Move - Germans 2 infantry moved from Bessarabia to Ukraine S.S.R. 1 fighter moved from Bessarabia to Ukraine S.S.R. 1 fighter moved from Poland to Ukraine S.S.R. 1 bomber and 3 fighters moved from Germany to Ukraine S.S.R. 4 infantry moved from Norway to Finland Germans take Finland from Russians 12 armour, 3 artilleries and 28 infantry moved from Poland to East Poland 3 artilleries and 3 infantry moved from Bessarabia to East Poland 2 artilleries and 3 infantry moved from Hungary to East Poland 1 infantry moved from Baltic States to East Poland Combat - Germans Battle in East Poland Germans attack with 12 armour, 8 artilleries and 35 infantry Russians defend with 2 infantry Germans roll dice for 12 armour, 8 artilleries and 35 infantry in East Poland, round 2 : 19/55 hits, 15,83 expected hits Russians roll dice for 2 infantry in East Poland, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits 2 infantry owned by the Russians lost in East Poland Germans win, taking East Poland from Russians with 12 armour, 8 artilleries and 35 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 6 Casualties for Russians: 2 infantry Battle in Ukraine S.S.R. Germans attack with 1 bomber, 5 fighters and 2 infantry Russians defend with 2 infantry Germans roll dice for 1 bomber, 5 fighters and 2 infantry in Ukraine S.S.R., round 2 : 5/8 hits, 3,50 expected hits Russians roll dice for 2 infantry in Ukraine S.S.R., round 2 : 0/2 hits, 0,67 expected hits 2 infantry owned by the Russians lost in Ukraine S.S.R. Germans win, taking Ukraine S.S.R. from Russians with 1 bomber, 5 fighters and 2 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 6 Casualties for Russians: 2 infantry Non Combat Move - Germans 1 bomber moved from Ukraine S.S.R. to Germany 1 fighter moved from Ukraine S.S.R. to Poland 1 fighter moved from Poland to Germany 1 fighter moved from Ukraine S.S.R. to Poland 3 fighters moved from Ukraine S.S.R. to Bessarabia 1 aaGun moved from Poland to East Poland 1 artillery and 17 infantry moved from Germany to Poland 3 infantry moved from Northern Italy to Austria Place Units - Germans 9 armour placed in Germany Turn Complete - Germans Germans collect 43 PUs; end with 43 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Russians regular : -1,33 Germans regular : 4,67

Savegame

@VictoryFirst said in AndrewAAgamer (Allies) vs. Germany (Ragnell804):

@AndrewAAGamer said in AndrewAAgamer (Allies) vs. Germany (Ragnell804):

Would you be able to calculate when we get Bad dice or Very Bad dice in two or more areas? That should be important too.

I think what will be difficult here is defining what territories belong which areas. For example a battle in G28, should you include it under Caen or St. Lo? Units there can go either way. An approach like this is almost impossible.

I guess I wasn’t clear. I am not looking for you to peruse the game I just had and figure out what the dice variable was. I was hoping, if possible, due to your math skills, if sometime in the near future you would be able to tell me certain odds like you just did. For example:

Odds of at least 1 area area with Bad dice Odds of at least 2 areas with Bad dice Odds of at least 1 area with Very Bad dice Odds of at least 2 areas of Very Bad dice

That way, once, and if, we can confirm the Allies win 100% of the time with even dice, or dice favorable to the Allies we could assign percentages to the varies bad dice and come up with some estimate of how often the Germans would win. BTW if you did that it would be awesome if you used 16% / 68% /16% as the low, normal and high parameters.

All I want to test for is IF the Allies get fair dice would they win every time.

Alright, that sounds logical, taking one step at a time. My first guess they wouldn’t but I am going to play a solo game first with this. I want to see what effect the average dice will have on the game. After that we can play.

Here is a link to a solo test I started. I will place the methodology instructions there that I am using for the testing.

https://www.axisandallies.org/forums/topic/41401/andrewaagamer-solo-test?_=1733436170864

TripleA Turn Summary: Russians round 3

TripleA Turn Summary for game: The Rising Sun

Game History

Round: 3 Combat Move - Russians 1 Artillery and 1 Infantry moved from Ulaan Ude to Irkutsk 1 EarlyFighter moved from Jinan to Irkutsk 1 Artillery and 2 Infantrys moved from Jinan to Quingdao Purchase Units - Russians Russians buy 6 Infantrys and 4 Mech.Infs; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; Combat - Russians Battle in Irkutsk Russians attack with 1 Artillery, 1 EarlyFighter and 1 Infantry Masaharu defend with 1 Artillery Russians roll dice for 1 Artillery, 1 EarlyFighter and 1 Infantry in Irkutsk, round 2 : 0/3 hits, 1.00 expected hits Masaharu roll dice for 1 Artillery in Irkutsk, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits Russians roll dice for 1 Artillery, 1 EarlyFighter and 1 Infantry in Irkutsk, round 3 : 1/3 hits, 1.00 expected hits Masaharu roll dice for 1 Artillery in Irkutsk, round 3 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits 1 Artillery owned by the Masaharu lost in Irkutsk Russians win, taking Irkutsk from Masaharu with 1 Artillery, 1 EarlyFighter and 1 Infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 4 Casualties for Masaharu: 1 Artillery Battle in Quingdao Russians attack with 1 Artillery and 2 Infantrys Masaharu defend with 1 Artillery and 1 Infantry Russians roll dice for 1 Artillery and 2 Infantrys in Quingdao, round 2 : 2/3 hits, 0.83 expected hits Masaharu roll dice for 1 Artillery and 1 Infantry in Quingdao, round 2 : 2/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits 2 Infantrys owned by the Russians lost in Quingdao 1 Infantry owned by the Masaharu and 1 Artillery owned by the Masaharu lost in Quingdao Russians win, taking Quingdao from Masaharu with 1 Artillery remaining. Battle score for attacker is 2 Casualties for Russians: 2 Infantrys Casualties for Masaharu: 1 Artillery and 1 Infantry Non Combat Move - Russians 1 Infantry moved from Ulaan Ude to Ustkut 2 Tanks moved from Jinan to Ulaan Ude 5 Infantrys moved from Kyzal to Ulaan Ude 1 Infantry moved from Jinquan to Kyzal 1 Elite moved from Kaask to Kyzal 1 Artillery moved from Kaask to Tulun 6 Infantrys moved from Kaask to Tulun 4 Mech.Infs moved from Achinsk to Tulun 1 EarlyFighter moved from Irkutsk to Ulaan Ude Place Units - Russians 6 Infantrys placed in Kaask 4 Mech.Infs placed in Achinsk Turn Complete - Russians Russians collect 31 PUs; end with 31 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Masaharu regular : 0.67 Russians regular : 0.17

Savegame

TripleA Turn Summary: Russians round 8

TripleA Turn Summary for game: WW2 Path to Victory

Game History

Round: 8 Purchase Units - Russians Russians buy 2 armour, 10 infantry and 1 mech_infantry; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; Combat Move - Russians 3 infantry moved from Jehol to Chahar 1 fighter moved from Anhwe to Shansi 1 fighter moved from Shansi to Chahar Combat - Russians Battle in Chahar Russians attack with 1 fighter and 3 infantry Japanese defend with 1 infantry Russians roll dice for 1 fighter and 3 infantry in Chahar, round 2 : 3/4 hits, 1.00 expected hits Japanese roll dice for 1 infantry in Chahar, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits 1 infantry owned by the Japanese lost in Chahar Russians win, taking Chahar from Japanese with 1 fighter and 3 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3 Casualties for Japanese: 1 infantry Non Combat Move - Russians 1 fighter moved from Chahar to Kansu 10 infantry moved from Amur to Siberia 20 infantry moved from Rostov to Kursk 12 artilleries moved from Rostov to Kursk 1 armour and 1 mech_infantry moved from Rostov to Bryansk 20 infantry moved from Bryansk to Kursk 4 artilleries moved from Bryansk to Kursk 10 infantry moved from Bryansk to Kursk 2 artilleries and 2 infantry moved from Stalingrad to Rostov 4 fighters and 1 tactical_bomber moved from Rostov to Russia 2 armour and 3 mech_infantrys moved from Russia to Bryansk 1 aaGun and 3 infantry moved from Smolensk to Russia 1 aaGun and 2 infantry moved from Yaroslavl to Gorky 5 artilleries and 3 infantry moved from Yaroslavl to Russia 1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Russia to Bryansk Place Units - Russians 10 infantry placed in Russia 2 armour and 1 mech_infantry placed in Stalingrad Turn Complete - Russians Russians collect 37 PUs; end with 37 PUs Trigger Russians 2 Persia Lend Lease Lane: Russians met a national objective for an additional 2 PUs; end with 39 PUs Trigger Russians 3 Siberia Lend Lease Lane: Russians met a national objective for an additional 2 PUs; end with 41 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Japanese regular : -0.33 Russians regular : 2.00

Savegame

TripleA Manual Gamesave Post: Germans round 11

TripleA Manual Gamesave Post for game: WW2 Path to Victory

Game History

Round: 11 Research Technology - Germans Purchase Units - Germans Germans buy 1 armour, 1 artillery, 12 infantry, 1 mech_infantry, 1 submarine and 1 tactical_bomber; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; Trigger Germans 6 Atlantic Wall Broken Switch: Setting switch to false for conditionAttachment_Germans_6_Atlantic_Wall_Possible_Switch attached to Germans Combat Move - Germans 1 armour moved from Ukraine to Rostov Germans take Rostov from Russians 1 armour moved from Rostov to Ukraine Combat - Germans Non Combat Move - Germans 5 infantry moved from Northern Belarus to Smolensk 3 infantry moved from Leningrad to Northern Belarus 1 fighter moved from Leningrad to Western Germany 1 armour moved from Norway to Vyborg 3 artilleries and 5 infantry moved from Western Germany to 116 Sea Zone 1 destroyer moved from 116 Sea Zone to 114 Sea Zone 3 artilleries, 1 carrier, 1 cruiser, 2 fighters, 5 infantry and 4 transports moved from 116 Sea Zone to 122 Sea Zone 3 artilleries and 5 infantry moved from 122 Sea Zone to Scotland 3 fighters moved from Western Germany to Scotland 1 aaGun and 1 infantry moved from Holland Belgium to Western Germany 1 infantry moved from France to Western Germany 2 armour and 2 mech_infantrys moved from Eastern Poland to Smolensk 3 infantry moved from Bessarabia to Ukraine 3 mech_infantrys moved from Romania to Northern Belarus Place Units - Germans 3 infantry placed in Leningrad 3 infantry placed in Ukraine 1 armour and 1 mech_infantry placed in Romania 1 artillery, 6 infantry and 1 tactical_bomber placed in Western Germany 1 submarine placed in 116 Sea Zone Turn Complete - Germans Germans collect 49 PUs; end with 49 PUs Trigger Germans 5 Swedish Iron Ore: Germans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 54 PUs Objective Germans 7 Control of Balkans: Germans met a national objective for an additional 3 PUs; end with 57 PUs Objective Germans 2 Control Stalingrad Or Leningrad Or Russia: Germans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 62 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Savegame

TripleA Turn Summary: Yamamoto round 9

TripleA Turn Summary for game: World At War

Game History

Round: 9 Combat Move - Yamamoto 1 unit repaired. 1 Destroyer moved from 85 Sea Zone to 86 Sea Zone 6 Adv.Fighters and 2 Fighters moved from 85 Sea Zone to 86 Sea Zone 1 Destroyer moved from 85 Sea Zone to 76 Sea Zone 1 Destroyer moved from 85 Sea Zone to 76 Sea Zone 1 S.Bomber moved from Chubu to 76 Sea Zone 1 Adv.Fighter moved from Chubu to 76 Sea Zone 2 Destroyers moved from 85 Sea Zone to 101 Sea Zone 1 Elite moved from Chubu to 85 Sea Zone 1 Elite and 1 S.Submarine moved from 85 Sea Zone to 101 Sea Zone 1 Elite moved from 101 Sea Zone to Ulithi 2 Artillerys and 1 Infantry moved from Yap to Ulithi 1 Elite moved from Chubu to 85 Sea Zone 2 Infantrys moved from Tokyo to 85 Sea Zone 1 Elite and 2 Infantrys moved from 85 Sea Zone to Iwo Jima 2 Transports moved from 105 Sea Zone to 110 Sea Zone 2 Artillerys and 2 Infantrys moved from Banjarmasin to 110 Sea Zone 2 Artillerys, 2 Infantrys and 2 Transports moved from 110 Sea Zone to 105 Sea Zone 2 Infantrys moved from 105 Sea Zone to S.Thailand 4 Artillerys, 2 Infantrys and 1 Tank moved from S.Thailand to N.Thailand 2 Artillerys moved from 105 Sea Zone to S.Thailand 2 Transports moved from 105 Sea Zone to 111 Sea Zone Purchase Units - Yamamoto Yamamoto buy 6 Artillerys, 1 Battleship, 2 Bunkers, 2 Destroyers, 1 Elite, 7 Infantrys, 1 Marine and 1 S.Submarine; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; Combat - Yamamoto Battle in N.Thailand Yamamoto attack with 4 Artillerys, 2 Infantrys and 1 Tank British defend with 1 Infantry Yamamoto roll dice for 4 Artillerys, 2 Infantrys and 1 Tank in N.Thailand, round 2 : 4/7 hits, 2.50 expected hits British roll dice for 1 Infantry in N.Thailand, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits 1 Infantry owned by the British lost in N.Thailand Yamamoto win, taking N.Thailand from British with 4 Artillerys, 2 Infantrys and 1 Tank remaining. Battle score for attacker is 2 Casualties for British: 1 Infantry Battle in 86 Sea Zone Yamamoto attack with 6 Adv.Fighters, 1 Destroyer and 2 Fighters Americans defend with 2 S.Submarines Americans roll dice for 2 S.Submarines in 86 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/2 hits, 1.00 expected hits Yamamoto roll dice for 6 Adv.Fighters, 1 Destroyer and 2 Fighters in 86 Sea Zone, round 2 : 6/9 hits, 4.00 expected hits 1 Destroyer owned by the Yamamoto lost in 86 Sea Zone 2 S.Submarines owned by the Americans lost in 86 Sea Zone Yamamoto win with 6 Adv.Fighters and 2 Fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is 12 Casualties for Yamamoto: 1 Destroyer Casualties for Americans: 2 S.Submarines Battle in 101 Sea Zone Yamamoto attack with 2 Destroyers and 1 S.Submarine Americans defend with 1 Cruiser and 1 S.Submarine Yamamoto roll dice for 1 S.Submarine in 101 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.50 expected hits Americans roll dice for 1 S.Submarine in 101 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.50 expected hits 1 S.Submarine owned by the Americans lost in 101 Sea Zone Yamamoto roll dice for 2 Destroyers in 101 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits Americans roll dice for 1 Cruiser in 101 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.50 expected hits Yamamoto roll dice for 1 S.Submarine in 101 Sea Zone, round 3 : 1/1 hits, 0.50 expected hits 1 Cruiser owned by the Americans lost in 101 Sea Zone Yamamoto win with 2 Destroyers and 1 S.Submarine remaining. Battle score for attacker is 22 Casualties for Americans: 1 Cruiser and 1 S.Submarine Battle in 76 Sea Zone Yamamoto attack with 1 Adv.Fighter, 2 Destroyers and 1 S.Bomber British defend with 1 Destroyer Yamamoto roll dice for 1 Adv.Fighter, 2 Destroyers and 1 S.Bomber in 76 Sea Zone, round 2 : 2/4 hits, 2.00 expected hits British roll dice for 1 Destroyer in 76 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits 1 Destroyer owned by the British lost in 76 Sea Zone Yamamoto win with 1 Adv.Fighter, 2 Destroyers and 1 S.Bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 8 Casualties for British: 1 Destroyer Battle in Iwo Jima Yamamoto attack with 1 Elite and 2 Infantrys Americans defend with 1 Infantry Yamamoto roll dice for 1 Battleship in Iwo Jima, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.67 expected hits 1 Infantry owned by the Americans lost in Iwo Jima Yamamoto win, taking Iwo Jima from Americans with 1 Elite and 2 Infantrys remaining. Battle score for attacker is 2 Casualties for Americans: 1 Infantry Battle in Ulithi Yamamoto attack with 2 Artillerys, 1 Elite and 1 Infantry Americans defend with 1 Artillery and 1 Infantry Yamamoto roll dice for 2 Artillerys, 1 Elite and 1 Infantry in Ulithi, round 2 : 1/4 hits, 1.50 expected hits Americans roll dice for 1 Artillery and 1 Infantry in Ulithi, round 2 : 0/2 hits, 0.67 expected hits 1 Infantry owned by the Americans lost in Ulithi Yamamoto roll dice for 2 Artillerys, 1 Elite and 1 Infantry in Ulithi, round 3 : 3/4 hits, 1.50 expected hits Americans roll dice for 1 Artillery in Ulithi, round 3 : 1/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits 1 Infantry owned by the Yamamoto lost in Ulithi 1 Artillery owned by the Americans lost in Ulithi Yamamoto win, taking Ulithi from Americans with 2 Artillerys and 1 Elite remaining. Battle score for attacker is 4 Casualties for Americans: 1 Artillery and 1 Infantry Casualties for Yamamoto: 1 Infantry Non Combat Move - Yamamoto 1 Destroyer moved from 85 Sea Zone to 86 Sea Zone 2 Fighters moved from 86 Sea Zone to 85 Sea Zone 3 Adv.Fighters moved from 86 Sea Zone to 85 Sea Zone 2 Adv.Fighters moved from 86 Sea Zone to 85 Sea Zone 1 Adv.Fighter moved from 86 Sea Zone to 85 Sea Zone 1 Adv.Fighter moved from 76 Sea Zone to 85 Sea Zone 1 S.Bomber moved from 76 Sea Zone to 93 Sea Zone 1 S.Bomber moved from 93 Sea Zone to Davao 1 Infantry moved from Kwangtung to Kwangsi 3 Infantrys moved from Kwangtung to Hunan 2 Transports moved from 84 Sea Zone to 85 Sea Zone Place Units - Yamamoto 1 Bunker placed in Sumatra 1 Bunker placed in Malaya 2 Artillerys and 2 Infantrys placed in Banjarmasin 2 Artillerys and 2 Infantrys placed in Davao 1 Battleship, 2 Destroyers and 1 S.Submarine placed in 85 Sea Zone 2 Artillerys, 1 Elite, 3 Infantrys and 1 Marine placed in Tokyo Turn Complete - Yamamoto Yamamoto collect 90 PUs; end with 90 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Yamamoto regular : 5.17 Americans regular : -1.00 British regular : -0.67

Savegame