British Counter to Sea Lion?

I’ll run the numbers and see how it looks for a UK attack on the Germans in sz112 and the G3 London attack.

I’ll get back to you.

as the british i left the italian fleet aside, reinforced the french fleet with the cruiser and the carrier filled with the fighter from egypt. (did not help well. so i think about leaving this reinforcement and gathering this small british fleet in seazone 92 giving the italian two targets to attack, better said: two targets and only one to choose…)

In that scenario, hit the UK carrier.  You could block w/ the UK CA, though.  Then the UK planes and a loaded TT can make it back to London.

i set up the board at home, checking some details concerning the defence of sealion. (i “played” alone…)  it happened mostly to be that all german subs are sunk at the end of round one and one british destroyers is either in seazone 109 and 110.

Hit sz109 with 1 sb, 1 fht. 
Hit sz110 with 2 sb, 2 fht, 1 tac. 
Hit sz111 with 2 sb, 1 fht, 1 tac, 1 bmb. 
Hit sz112 with 1 BB, 1 CA, 1 tac. 
If a ship lives in either 109, 110, 111 or 112, then it is time for plan B.  You SHOULD kill it all, though.  Odds are high in all battles - 109 being the lowest.  As long as you kill the DD there, then all is good.

so attacking-support via bombardment won´t occure and the british gains the important no-sub-NO.

You could forgo the 2nd TT and get a sb for the German buy as an alternative.

second, the tactical bomber landed in uk. british buy in round one: 2 fighters and 3 infantries. so there are now 5 infantry, 1 tank, 1 tactical bomber, 5 fighters and an anti-aircraft-gun. (maybe it is better buying only 1 fighter and 6 infantries. so there could be 9 infantries, 1 tank, 1 tactical bombers, 4 fighters and 1 AA-gun).

Odds of taking UK on turn 2 are 50% if all planes survived.  I would skip Sealion turn 2, then, and go with turn 3.

You’ll have $30 for UK, so I assume 10 inf.  Let’s say both planes from the carrier make it back, and you brought the TT.  These moves will have been initiated turn 1, so I wil be able to take this into account before I comit to buying the 9 TTs.  The Italian fleet is intact, and Africa just became easier for the Axis.  G2 really is decision time for Sealion.

You will now have in UK (max UK vs max Germany):
20 inf, 2 tanks, 5 fht, 1 tac vs (11 TT instead of 12, let’s say) 11 inf, 3 art, 8 tanks, 4 fht, 3 tac, 1 bmb, 1 BB, 1 CA

That is 65% Axis win.  I’d likely want that 2nd TT to load 1 more inf and art to give me 78%.

I’ll look at your turn 2 UK attack on sz112 later.  Looks promising, though.

Well, if Germany doesn’t buy an AC a UK1 attack is not even suicidal. But if they do, it gets real risky…

Or do you mean turn2?

Sorry, I have not visited this thread in a while.  Sealion now takes a new turn with Larry’s ongoing changes.

hmmm, why is it 65% win? and where from do you have 8 tanks (okay 5 from france, the other three from hungary etc.?) and: did you forget the AA-gun? can explain your calculations, please?
it seems to me that odds are more like 50/50.

The other 3 tanks are coming from Yugoslavia.  Use the 1 from Pol, Hun and Rom to hit Yugo with 5 inf and then move them back to West Ger on turn 2.

As for the numbers, they are input into an odds calculator with AA turned on.  Those are the numbers given.

Inputing it in again, I know why we have a discrenpency.  You forgot the German amphib shots.

anyway, germany will loose a big part of its luftwaffe, that for sure. it appears to me, even if(!) UK will be conquered, it is going to be a pyrrhus-styled victory for germany.

You’ll survive with 5 units on average.  With the remaining units on turn 3, I’d pile up whatever I have on the mainland into Pol.  Buy inf/art to reload the TTs to dump back into pol as well.  You’ll find that you can quickly get your units back to the front using those TTs.  Leningrad will be the focus, as when you have built up enough and have moved to Bal Sta, Leningrad must be abandoned since your next hit on Lenin would include units built and ferried over by TTs.  You are outbuilding Russia as well, so it is just a matter of time.

Place the fleet in front of Gib as soon as practical and augment with Italy.  Buy 5 sb a turn with Italy and just keep pumping them into Gib.  Italy can get up to $40 with Africa no longer defensible.

This is how my games have gone (barring bad dice).  Try it.  Of course with the rules now changing, well see how this holds up.

but maybe a preemptive attack by the four or five british fighters, one tac, one destroyer and an aircraft-carrier against the german fleet is the key to prevent a sealion-attack.

okay:

one carrier (just for soaking up two hits)
one destroyer, 4 fighters, one tac vs. one carrier, one cruiser, one battleship and two fighters: every side needs to gain seven hits to destroy the other one.

2 x 0 (the british carrier)
1 x 2 vs. 1 x 2
4 x 3 vs. 1 x 3
1 x 4 vs. 3 x 4

kind of suicidal attack, though, but possible. all or nothin, hmm?
sealion prevented by that? what do you think?

Attacker survives 32%  With the loss of those fighters, Sealion jumps to 98% with 13 units on average surviving. Too risky.  I’d rather sit and hunker down with the UK, I think.

Congrats on your win.

I would say that with all the changes going on, that Larry’s new set-up and rules will now need to be looked at for Sealion.

I hope it doesnt drop sealion below 50% But with the new rules I think there’s a good chance.

We will depend on you Jim, as always, to determine the numbers on the most most decicive and awesome axis strategies.

@Canuck12:

I hope it doesnt drop sealion below 50% But with the new rules I think there’s a good chance.

We will depend on you Jim, as always, to determine the numbers on the most most decicive and awesome axis strategies.

I hope it does. Sealion should not be a viable strategy.

If Sealion drops to 40 - 50%, I could live with that.  It means that you’d live with very little.

I tried one strategy this weekend by keeping my British carrier on Sz91 in round 1, and then after Germany built up its invasion force in G2 on sz112, I moved the carrier up to sz110 and landed a plane on it.  Germany could destroy it no problem and still attack there, or go around and attack at sz109, but it effectively blocked aircraft from the continent from attacking Britain.  They had to stop and fight in sz110.

One way around this is for Germany in G2 to move its entire fleet to sz110, and build new transports in 113.  Of course, hindsight is 20/20 and it worked.

@scottyp65:

I tried one strategy this weekend by keeping my British carrier on Sz91 in round 1, and then after Germany built up its invasion force in G2 on sz112, I moved the carrier up to sz110 and landed a plane on it.  Germany could destroy it no problem and still attack there, or go around and attack at sz109, but it effectively blocked aircraft from the continent from attacking Britain.  They had to stop and fight in sz110.

One way around this is for Germany in G2 to move its entire fleet to sz110, and build new transports in 113.  Of course, hindsight is 20/20 and it worked.

Why exactly would a carrier in sz110 stop aircraft from the continent from participating in the attack on Britain?  Aircraft can fly through hostile zones en route to combat (or any time for that matter).

if the brits have a ship in sz 119, (the one left of Scotland) by T2 you can plug the canal at 112 T3 and hold up sea lion til T4 giving the US time to counter