MOVED: Austrian Economics vs. Keynesian Economics in Axis and Allies

I thought for Spring42’ 2nd edition, the bid goes to the allies? I’m confused here.

I recently played two games of Spring '42 against my cousin.  On BOTH occasions, I captured UK on G2 and he conceded.  My cousin would be the first to admit that he is a lousy A&A player, but I still took a lot of joy out of silencing his trash talking, even if only for a moment.  It NEVER should have succeeded.  It was entirely due to poor decisions on his part.  Hobbes is absolutely correct.  The UK would have to make GRAVE miscalculations (purchasing and combat), and/or have absolutely horrendous luck with the dice.  Hobbes gave it in a nutshell.  Let me flesh it out a bit for G1 and G2.

Let’s give Germany the MAXIMUM possible force to bring in for a UK invasion on G1 or G2.

G1 assault on UK:  German 1 BOM, 2 FTR, 1 ARM, 1 INF versus UK 2 FTR, 1 ARM, 1 ART, 2 INF, 1 BOM, and the AA.  Germany has 4% chance to win with 1 ARM or better (in order to capture, the standard OOL is changed)

G2 assault on UK:  Let’s assume on R1, Russia went big into WR alone.  Germany has all 6 FTR’s intact.  On G1, Germany bought 1 CV, 3 TT, 1 ARM, and the SZ8 SS sank the SZ10 US fleet (50% chance).  On G2, Germany could bring as much as 1 BOM, 6 FTR, 5 ARM, 5 INF, 1 BB bombardment shot (though the BB would be better used in SZ 9 to interdict/divert the new US1-built fleet hoping to liberate UK on US2.  Let’s keep the BB bombarding UK, however, just to give the best possible odds for the Germans in the invasion of UK. With the sz10 fleet eliminated, the G1 naval purchases are placed in the Baltic rather than the Med.  The UK player has to see the threat of a G2 invasion bearing down on them.  The UK player, not being COMPLETELY inept, decides to shore up UK.  UK purchases 5 INF 3 ARM, the SZ1 TT brought the ECan ARM over to UK.  The BB stays put in SZ2 as Germany’s 3 SS, 1 DD, 1 CV have a 98.5% chance of wiping out the BB without needing to divert any air units from the invasion.  Germany has 1 BOM, 6 FTR, 5 ARM, 5 INF, and the BB bombardment bearing down on UK, who stands with 7 INF, 1 ART, 5 ARM, 3 FTR, 2 BOM (1 FTR 1 BOM from EUS), 1 AA.  Germany’s odds of capturing UK under this optimal condition would still be only 24.5%, and the US would be able to liberate on US2.  If Germany parks the BB in sz9 to interdict/divert the US, a liberation by the US would be impossible, but the German odds of success at UK drop to 19% without having the bombardment.

Clearly, a G1 attempt is suicide.  Assuming the G1 attack succeeded against the SZ10 fleet (50% chance of success) followed by a best case scenario G2 attempt after a G1 build of 1 CV, 3 TT, 1 ARM (19% chance of success while preventing liberation by US).  By compounding the probabilities, your chance of a G2 assault of this sort succeeding is less than 10%.  If Germany is missing a single FTR from their original 6, the odds are cut in half again.

IF you are playing against a lousy UK player, you might have better luck forgoing the naval build on G1 altogether.  Germany can opt to smash the sz2 fleet, and hope the UK will turn around and buy 1 CV, 2 DD (or a similar navy heavy buy) and ignore the Baltic fleet on UK1 (2 big IF’s), allowing Germany to invade UK with 1 BB shot, 2 loaded transports, 6 FTR, and 1 BOM on G2.  83% chance of success without US units on UK.  Long story short, unless you are playing inept opponent(s), a G1 or G2 invasion of UK is a suicide mission.

I have tried KJF with some succes. How I play it is that I never decide to go KJF until J1 has passed. That means I will usually not devote any Russian or British forces to fight Japan in the first round. Instead I will focus on the European theater and Africa first, building a UK navy and trying to sink the Med Fleet ASAP. The reasoning is that even with a KJF, you can’t let Germany just run rampant. KJF often means a long game, so keeping the African IPCs out of German hands is very important. With UK that will always be my number one priority, so it’s safe to say that I will never build an Indian IC on UK1. Of course, the Japanese transport will still be sunk in 99% of the games.

For me, the most important KJF triggers happen on J1 and can be summarized as Japan failing to take a critical objective (China, Pearl) or losing a lot of air and naval forces across multiple battles. If Japan does ‘big Pearl’ and takes heavy losses, exposing a battleship and carrier to a promising US counterattack, I will often go KJF. Same goes for ‘small Pearl’ and losing that battle. For losing China it’s a bit less clear-cut, since Allies often don’t have the units in that area to press on an advantage. In other occasions Japan could lose a BB in SZ59, or fighters in any battle, giving enough incentive for US to build a Pacific fleet.

After round 1, even if US went Pacific, I will mostly use UK to fight Germany and assist in the defense of Russia.

The sad thing about this form of KJF is that it is contingent on bad dice for Axis, and not used as a general strategy. The question is whether in those scenarios where Japan has bad dice, KJF might be viable but KGF could still be strictly better.

ok so i’m hearing that you might as well do whatever damage you can with your india fleet, because it’ll either die regardless, or arrive to another theater too late to be of great effect.  sounds reasonable.  in one game i put the india fleet in the med because G didn’t take egypt, and from there i could threaten a (albeit small) landing in southern europe, balkans, or ukraine.  this forced him to keep 3-4 units at least in each of those territories and i found it to be a nice little advantage.  i’m guessing the protip there is that you can be MORE effective/annoying elsewhere with those ships though, huh?

thanks to bunnies for always answering my questions and hobbes for always providing strategical perspective  :-)

And I’ll have to say that I played about a dozen of games with Axis where my opponent played the double IC strategy, they ALL went the way I said in the previous post (except I usually don’t lose the islands, I’m quite good dealing with naval fights).