Germany first

@Imperious:

They were jungle fighters and not snow fighters.

Actually, there is snow in Japan, there are no jungles in Japan. Japanese soliders did not receive any jungle training except on the job.

Guadalcanal was as terrible for them (perhaps even more so) as it was for us. The jungle was brutal on the Japanese soldiers.

yes of course their is snow in Japan, but Japan didn’t fight well in this climate nor had much experience fighting a real army either. They gained experience in prepared defense in jungles after taking island after island with token resistance except for Philippines and Malaya. After 3-4 years of just preparing for defense on these little islands they performed well, but in China they could make no headway after fighting since 1931.

Even the lowly Soviets of 1939 were outclassing the Japanese when most of the command structure was decimated. Japan can only fight well in attacks or defense of short duration close to main supply. Japanese infantry was not motorized and their army was not very mobile.

@Imperious:

When they took Singapore in 1941 with full strength the infantry rode on bicycles and bluffed the British into surrender. They exhausted ammo and food and other supplies just marching from Indo China. They had no idea what logistical support meant and could never sustain long lines of supplies. They were jungle fighters and not snow fighters. The land of eastern Soviets was a natural barrier. I don’t think anybody would have been in any position to support a 5-6 thousand mile long logistical train and the enemy would have easily destroyed anything to facilitate movement/ resources.

Japan had no business in Russia. It offered nothing to them except one port ( Vladivostok)

If Japan could not defeat a backward country like China that still practiced things like foot binding for all women, thats the only indication you need to qualify their abilities. China had a untrained army with no modern equipment and still Japan fights her for 14 years and gets maybe a 5th of China proper. If they attacked Russia it would take about 60 years before they made even moderate progress.

The only allies they pushed out were in Philippines, Burma, and Malaya. one of these were token defenders, and the others were pinned into a corner with no room to fight. In open country Japan would melt like ice cream in hell.

Your analysis of the Japanese Army’s backwardness is dead-on accurate. But that said, the situation in China was a tough nut for them to crack. Imagine the Vietnam War except on a much larger scale. China’s various factions used both conventional warfare and guerrilla warfare, and nothing stayed conquered unless held down by a Japanese garrison. China’s population reserves were almost unlimited, and its army was able to obtain some help from its neighbors. Outright victory in a situation like that is difficult to obtain, especially for a nation with only a fraction of China’s population size.

But as you’ve pointed out, Japan’s logistics were second- or third-rate, and its overall Army was not up to the standards of the Soviets or the Germans. To give a specific example, Japan’s main tank design was a light tank, intended to take out Chinese infantry. It was no match for a Sherman; let alone a T-34-85! To fight a war against the Soviet Union effectively, Japan would have had to make peace in China (where its army had been hopelessly bogged down), significantly increase its industrial capacity and commitment to its army. Japan produced 2,500 tanks during WWII, as compared to 105,000 for the Soviet Union. Japan produced 13,000 artillery pieces during the war, compared to 516,000 artillery pieces for the Soviets. Even apart from the logistical problems you described, those numbers don’t add up to a successful Japanese invasion of Siberia. Then there was also the problem of tactics. Japan, not having been a major participant in WWI-style trench warfare, did not appear to have learned the lessons from that war. In several instances, its soldiers would charge strongly defended American positions, much like French troops charging German machine gun emplacements in 1914. The results were the same in both cases.

This guy doesn’t know diddly.  The Japs didn’t even have to attack Russia, all they had to do was declare war on it and I think the Germans could have  pulled off a win.  The troops that made Stalingrad possible came from the east.  They had been stationed in case the japs did attack.  Stalin took the threat seriously.  After one of their spies confirmed that there would be no attack, only than did the Russians move those troops west.  Had Japan declared war, those troops would have stayed where they were.

A german victory at Stalingrad cuts off the volga, captures the Caucus and all the oil in it.  It even frees up North Africa and the suez cannal for Rommel because the British would have defend that flank.

Not attacking Russia at all would have been Germany’s best bet.  But short of that I think they could have won if Japan even made the gesture of attacking Russia.

Had the Germans had good weather do you think they could actually take Moscow? With a poor supply structure and worn down infantry and panzer units, the Germans were in no shape to fight the type of battle it would take to capture Moscow.

@Zooey72:

This guy doesn’t know diddly.  The Japs didn’t even have to attack Russia, all they had to do was declare war on it and I think the Germans could have  pulled off a win.  The troops that made Stalingrad possible came from the east.  They had been stationed in case the japs did attack.  Stalin took the threat seriously.  After one of their spies confirmed that there would be no attack, only than did the Russians move those troops west.  Had Japan declared war, those troops would have stayed where they were.

A german victory at Stalingrad cuts off the volga, captures the Caucus and all the oil in it.  It even frees up North Africa and the suez cannal for Rommel because the British would have defend that flank.

Not attacking Russia at all would have been Germany’s best bet.  But short of that I think they could have won if Japan even made the gesture of attacking Russia.

Do you really think Stalin wouldn’t gladly give some snow-covered land in order to save his industrial heartland AND the city with his name in it?

But short of that I think they could have won if Japan even made the gesture of attacking Russia.

The forces in the ‘far east’ didn’t cause Hitler to lose, Hitlers decision to attack Stalingrad and how he did it destroyed his chances in 1942.

In 1941 The winter caused Hitler to lose because he didn’t prepare for it and underestimated the Soviet army. Those forces were just icing on the cake used for the foiled counteroffensive, AFTER the Germans failed to take Moscow. The battles just before Moscow at Vyzma are the ones that cost the Germans too much time, so they didn’t get to Moscow in force after fighting 5 Soviet Armies.

“Contrary to German expectations, the encircled Soviet forces did not surrender easily. Instead, the fighting was fierce and desperate, and the Wehrmacht had to employ 28 divisions to eliminate the surrounded Soviet armies, using forces that were needed to support the offensive towards Moscow. The remnants of the Soviet Western and Reserve Fronts were able to retreat and consolidate their lines around Mozhaisk.[22]  Moreover, the surrounded Soviet forces were not completely destroyed, as some of the encircled troops escaped in groups ranging in size from platoons to full rifle divisions.[23]  Soviet resistance near Vyazma also provided time for the Soviet high command to quickly bring some reinforcements to the four armies defending the Moscow direction (namely, the 5th, 16th, 43rd and 49th), and to transport three rifle and two tank divisions from the Far East.”

I hardly think “three rifle and two tank divisions from the Far East” were the cause of the German failure. The weather and Hitlers unprepared logistics past a campaign of over 4 month duration were catastrophic.

If Japan attacked Russia it would have done nothing except expose yet another front to them and cause a 3 front war for Japan. The balance of the Soviet forces on the border were more than enough to wipe out the japanese Kwangtung army as they did in 1939.

Japan would gain nothing but another defeat, and tie up units that were used after Dec 41 in a protracted battle. Declaring war and doing nothing was not an option either. Stalin would go on the defensive if he was engaged with Germany. If Japan didn’t get her feet wet, the ploy would fail and 5 divisions still head toward Moscow. If they committed, it would have hastened japanese defeat in Asia. Stalin had more than enough forces for both once Moscow was protected.

I am being lazy at the momment to look up the stats (I will later), BUT I have an unarguable point (this being an Axis and allies forum).  Japan always attacks Russia  :-D

Without looking it up, I think most historians agree that the forces the Russians used at Stalingrad were from the East.  And even the “few” divisions you mentioned I think meant the difference - esp. when you consider if Paulus could have broken out of Stalingrad could have been relieved.

@Imperious:

But short of that I think they could have won if Japan even made the gesture of attacking Russia.

The forces in the ‘far east’ didn’t cause Hitler to lose, Hitlers decision to attack Stalingrad and how he did it destroyed his chances in 1942.

In 1941 The winter caused Hitler to lose because he didn’t prepare for it and underestimated the Soviet army. Those forces were just icing on the cake used for the foiled counteroffensive, AFTER the Germans failed to take Moscow. The battles just before Moscow at Vyzma are the ones that cost the Germans too much time, so they didn’t get to Moscow in force after fighting 5 Soviet Armies.

“Contrary to German expectations, the encircled Soviet forces did not surrender easily. Instead, the fighting was fierce and desperate, and the Wehrmacht had to employ 28 divisions to eliminate the surrounded Soviet armies, using forces that were needed to support the offensive towards Moscow. The remnants of the Soviet Western and Reserve Fronts were able to retreat and consolidate their lines around Mozhaisk.[22]  Moreover, the surrounded Soviet forces were not completely destroyed, as some of the encircled troops escaped in groups ranging in size from platoons to full rifle divisions.[23]  Soviet resistance near Vyazma also provided time for the Soviet high command to quickly bring some reinforcements to the four armies defending the Moscow direction (namely, the 5th, 16th, 43rd and 49th), and to transport three rifle and two tank divisions from the Far East.”

I hardly think “three rifle and two tank divisions from the Far East” were the cause of the German failure. The weather and Hitlers unprepared logistics past a campaign of over 4 month duration were catastrophic.

If Japan attacked Russia it would have done nothing except expose yet another front to them and cause a 3 front war for Japan. The balance of the Soviet forces on the border were more than enough to wipe out the japanese Kwangtung army as they did in 1939.

Japan would gain nothing but another defeat, and tie up units that were used after Dec 41 in a protracted battle. Declaring war and doing nothing was not an option either. Stalin would go on the defensive if he was engaged with Germany. If Japan didn’t get her feet wet, the ploy would fail and 5 divisions still head toward Moscow. If they committed, it would have hastened japanese defeat in Asia. Stalin had more than enough forces for both once Moscow was protected.

You are obviously very familiar with this period of history. I think that the forces from the east to which the earlier poster was referring may have been the 100 divisions the Soviets shipped west during the winter of '41 - '42. After the Japanese attacked Britain and the U.S., Stalin knew they would have little attention to spare for a war against the Soviets.

I agree, however, that Stalin was probably guilty of being overly cautious on his eastern front, and that he could have safely sent large numbers of divisions westward against Germany regardless of what Japan did.

@KurtGodel7:

@Imperious:

But short of that I think they could have won if Japan even made the gesture of attacking Russia.

The forces in the ‘far east’ didn’t cause Hitler to lose, Hitlers decision to attack Stalingrad and how he did it destroyed his chances in 1942.

In 1941 The winter caused Hitler to lose because he didn’t prepare for it and underestimated the Soviet army. Those forces were just icing on the cake used for the foiled counteroffensive, AFTER the Germans failed to take Moscow. The battles just before Moscow at Vyzma are the ones that cost the Germans too much time, so they didn’t get to Moscow in force after fighting 5 Soviet Armies.

“Contrary to German expectations, the encircled Soviet forces did not surrender easily. Instead, the fighting was fierce and desperate, and the Wehrmacht had to employ 28 divisions to eliminate the surrounded Soviet armies, using forces that were needed to support the offensive towards Moscow. The remnants of the Soviet Western and Reserve Fronts were able to retreat and consolidate their lines around Mozhaisk.[22]  Moreover, the surrounded Soviet forces were not completely destroyed, as some of the encircled troops escaped in groups ranging in size from platoons to full rifle divisions.[23]  Soviet resistance near Vyazma also provided time for the Soviet high command to quickly bring some reinforcements to the four armies defending the Moscow direction (namely, the 5th, 16th, 43rd and 49th), and to transport three rifle and two tank divisions from the Far East.”

I hardly think “three rifle and two tank divisions from the Far East” were the cause of the German failure. The weather and Hitlers unprepared logistics past a campaign of over 4 month duration were catastrophic.

If Japan attacked Russia it would have done nothing except expose yet another front to them and cause a 3 front war for Japan. The balance of the Soviet forces on the border were more than enough to wipe out the japanese Kwangtung army as they did in 1939.

Japan would gain nothing but another defeat, and tie up units that were used after Dec 41 in a protracted battle. Declaring war and doing nothing was not an option either. Stalin would go on the defensive if he was engaged with Germany. If Japan didn’t get her feet wet, the ploy would fail and 5 divisions still head toward Moscow. If they committed, it would have hastened japanese defeat in Asia. Stalin had more than enough forces for both once Moscow was protected.

You are obviously very familiar with this period of history. I think that the forces from the east to which the earlier poster was referring may have been the 100 divisions the Soviets shipped west during the winter of '41 - '42. After the Japanese attacked Britain and the U.S., Stalin knew they would have little attention to spare for a war against the Soviets.

I agree, however, that Stalin was probably guilty of being overly cautious on his eastern front, and that he could have safely sent large numbers of divisions westward against Germany regardless of what Japan did.

1905 may have played a role in Stalins units  in the East.