Ok here my long winded take on the Channel Dash “gambit” I use gambit in place of another word just to be nice to people who play it.
The basic idea after looking at options on carrying it out is to in fact spend all of germanys income on G1 for a 40 IPC fleet consisting of 1 CV and 3 AP ( however building 3 subs proved a better option in terms of net IPC gained… but this will be proven latter)
Again as usual we assume this: a bid of zero to 5 IPC and no NA’s are being used. Further the Soviet player played safe with a attack on Belo and west russia ( both victories with average loses.
They also moved the sub in a manner that would not entail the german player attacking it.
The German player on his turn cannot bring the medd fleet into the atlantic on G1 or i feel he wont accomplish his immediate goals in three areas 1) egypt, 2) uk west medd BB, and 3) Uk DD off egypt.
In case #1 not taking egypt gives UK a critical fighter that he can use to either protect his carrier or defend/attack India and africa
In case #2 is obvious
In case #3 that DD will reinforce the carrier fleet and make Japans turn much harder.
Also if say the German atlantic sub attacks w/ fighters/bombers and takes out the west UK BB and in NCM the german BB and tranny move to SZ # 12 they will meet their demise at the hand of a Bomber, 2 tranny and a destroyer. ( allied loses: 2 tranny, German loses BB and tranny= 16 to 32 IPC). This would occur if they moved in sz #12 on G1 or G2.
Now the primary method of the plan was originally a “threat” of Sealion in addition to the idea of moving the baltic fleet to the medd. Thus if you built a CV and 3 AP you would be loading probably 1 tank/1 infantry on each for a total of 4 tanks/ 4 infantry= 16 hit points=about 3 hits first round. The British player would have 1 fighter (USA), 2 Bombers ( one USA), 2 tanks,2 Inf,1 art= 18 points against 16 attacking points/ 8 hits vs.8 hits.
Now this option of Sealion is very remote because of 3 things: 1) your weaker, 2) to even maintain the odds your exchanging the luftwaffe instead of transports which is futile and 3) Your probably tossing the game away because in order to win you have to come from behind in both battles to get marginally ahead.
Now the British build a CV and Destroyer on Uk1 (save 2) and move the Soviet sub and the rest of her fleet= 1 ss,1 bb,1 ap,1 cv,1 dd, 2 fighters=21 hit points= about 4 hits first round
against:
The german fleet of 1 cv, 5-6 fighters,2 subs,4 ap,1 dd, 1 bomber= 27-30 hit points= 5 hits first round.
after round one the brits lose all except 1 bb and 2 fighters= leaving 12 points=2 hits
Germans lose either 4 transports ( if you dont load them up) leaving 1 cv,5-6 fighters, 1 dd,2 ss, 1 bomber= 27-30 points …or keeping the trannys they have lost 1 cv,1 dd, 2 ss
Second round:
UK fleet is gone and germans take 2-3 more hits
leaving the german fleet with 7 hits total and ONE ship left (perhaps the CV if they are lucky)
Now for the money…
UK/Soviets lost 1 ss,1 bb,1 ap,1 cv,1 dd, 2 fighters= 8+24+8+16+24=80 ipc
GERMANY LOST: 4 AP,2 ss, 1 dd AND POSSIBLY 1 cv which is 32+16+12=60 and possibly (its real close and we are assuming a 6th german fighter) an additonal 16 IPC= 76 IPC total.
Now i can see that the USA player would like to kill that german carrier and leave the BB alone and move the american bomber and fighter from england along with the 2 trannys and destroyer and kill that carrier and both planes
1 fighter, 1 bomber, 1 dd, 2 ap= 10/5 hits vs 1 cv and 2 fighter= 11/3 hits leaving the german fleet and 2 fighters gone in 2 rounds
Money= Germans cause 3 hits in 2 rounds and USA loses 3 ships 12+16=28 vs. German fleet/ fighters gone 24+16= 40 IPC gain for allies =12
If germany does not protect the carrier with fighters then its a net gain of 8 IPC for allies ( each side takes one hit).
Conclusion:
The allies have merely exchanged IPC with the german player in the North sea battle of Sz#6 The germans gained about 4 IPC from all of that
The Allies gain from the followup USA players turn when he finished off any german units.
Now if the german player built 3 subs instead of 3 tranny he gains one hit and on the second round the allies lose one hit leaving one additional german ship as escort in the event the CV is lucky enough to stay afloat.
Thus Germany has invested 40 IPC, left the Soviets alone to gain a full turn to reinforce themselves, possibly allowed the British player to keep his medd destroyer and or the territory of egypt because he had to have all his fighters within range of SZ#6. Thet means no fighters in africa. The basic moves for germany have all been ignored in order to facilitate some showdown in the north sea.
Also you have left a hole in the baltic that cant be closed.
Switch is correct. The threat is a failure as well as the channel dash idea is a total unmittigated failure.
Channel Dash is a total waste.
The worst thing about this as germany the land power you have played into the strength of the Allies by trying to challange them. You totally ignore the buildup of the russian campaign to play ‘catchup’ with the british fleet and simply exchange value. Id spend the 40 IPC in a more wiser manner to actually gain the net value as a result of land buys slowly gaining against the Russian player in back and forth land battles.
You have also gained marginally some tempo from the allies as they build/ rebuild her fleet, but the hole left in the baltic makes it easier for the allies to take france because now you have to protect germany AND france from harrasment invasions. This is a process that is accelerated by losing the baltic fleet.
For germany only either land buys or some naval buy in the baltic seem good for germany. If you buy for baltic either a CV or DD ( defence by installment idea)
If you want a fleet in the medd you better buy something for that.