K so we’re playin no tech I’m us with this crapload of IPC’s. My bro, UK, built SA factory and 1 fig,5 inf in UK to invade WE next turn. Should I help or should I go harrass Africa, and what should I do with the IPCS (units, factories, etc.)
German buys turn one
-
@ncscswitch:
I still supprt the SZ6 block, with a US counter in US2 using naval and air units.
Sure, you may link some fleet units in G2, but you won;t have much fleet left when G3 rolls around. And the cost in Africa is high, as is the cost of tying up the Luftwaffe on sea duty for 2-3 consecutive turns.
With an SZ6 block, Germany faces:
2 TRN, 1 SUB, 1 BB, 1 AC, 2 FIG in SZ6
Sure, Germany can kill it, at the cost of their Baltic fleet, and some of their AF.
And the Allies can prevent the Med Fleet from joining in the battle for a cost of 8 US IPC’s (and land troops in Africa at the same time).
And you can still do a USA counter with 1-2 FIGs, 1 BOM, 1-2 TRN, and a DST on whatever Germany has left on the seas.1 - again, like the discussion with you back in that thread, the point JSP made was he could 100% prevent a merge and london from falling. Not a counter. Prevent the merge.
2 - His posted strategy left london taken by the axis. So not a good block by my standards.
3- Your SZ 6 fleet has a D of 19. The Germans can attack with DD, 2 subs and 1-2 transports for fodder, along with 6 fighters and bomber. That is 29 vs 19. Germany will have an overwhelming advantage. The sub will take the algeria transport. This leaves a merged Germany fleet in SZ 7 with a loaded AC, BB, 2 transports. UK has no fleet. The USA cannot attack that successfully.Â
-
Squire,
Here is your block…
UK builds 1 AC, 1 TRN, 2 INF on UK1
1 ARM ECan to UK
Stages fleet plus existing FIGs in SZ6.USA1:
1 TRn with 2 land units to SZ12 offload to Algeria
1 TRN, 1 DST to SZ8 with 2 land units.
1 FIG, 1 BOM EUS to UKUSSR2: SUB to SZ6.
Now…
Your Med fleet cannot engage in combat moves against the Allied fleet, only the lone TRN in SZ12, so they can’t link until G3 (unless you NCM to SZ7)
Your Baltic Fleet cannot get past the UK fleet (except SUBs) without combat.SZ6 battle:
Allies: 1 TRN, 1 SUB, 1 BB, 1 AC, 2 FIG
Axis: 4 TRN, 2 SUB, 1 DST, 1 AC, 5 FIGs (1 dead in Ukraine), 1 BOMSaving your loaded TRNs, you win that battle 95% of the time, with an average 4 TRN, 2 FIG, 1 BOM, 1 AC, 1 DST.
Now the London Battle:
Allies have: 4 INF (UK), 1 INF (USA), 1 ART (UK), 2 ARM (UK), 1 ARM (USA), 1 FIG (USA), 1 BOM (USA), 1 AA (UK)
Axis lands 4 INF, 4 ARMAxis has a 2.4% chance of taking London.
If you pull just 1 FIG off the Naval battle to add to the London fight:
SZ6: 87% Axis win
London: 8.6% Axis Win2 FIGs to London:
SZ6: 64%
London: 21%3 FIGs to London:
SZ6: 41% (and saving the Loaded TRNs leaves you with nothing to invade with in most cases)
London: 36.5%So you have somewhere around a 1 in 4 chance to take London if the allies do a SZ6 primary block and a SZ12 TRN block.
And if Germany loses, they are out their air force AND navy on G2. Allied win.
I’ll take those odds as the Allies :-D
As for blcoking a link…
With battles in both SZ12 and SZ6, you can link SOME of your fleet in SZ7, but not all of it. And if you can’t link it all, it is DEAD. So why bother to merge it if it dies immediately anyway? -
Odds are actually worse for Germany than I posted… there are 2 UK TRNs in SZ6, not 1 as I showed in the sims.
-
@ncscswitch:
Squire,
Here is your block…
UK builds 1 AC, 1 TRN, 2 INF on UK1
1 ARM ECan to UK
Stages fleet plus existing FIGs in SZ6.USA1:
1 TRn with 2 land units to SZ12 offload to Algeria
1 TRN, 1 DST to SZ8 with 2 land units.
1 FIG, 1 BOM EUS to UKUSSR2:Â SUB to SZ6.
1 - my hypo presumes 6 fighters live. (assume suitable bid to ukraine if necessary to stop your attack)
2 - You do not attack BOTH fleet and London. It is either/or. I went LOndon because JSP put his blocking fleet in SZ7. Which left UK wide open.
3 - You have a defense of 19 (avg 3 hits) vs German air, DD, 2 subs 2 trans for fodder. Thats 29 (avg 5 hits). R1 UK loses BB, 3 trans, sub. Germany loses 2 trans sub. UK has 4 hits left, which is german avg hits round 2.  UK hits 2-3 back.Your posted USA (DD fighter bomber 1 trans) cannot beat a loaded AC, BB, 2 transports in SZ 7.
-
Whether or not the block can defeat the channel dash or the Germans do survive with a crushed fleet after all is said and done the axis are in a worse position than before because they focused alot of money on naval units while ignoring the Soviets. Its like a German KBF rather than KRF. Dont you chaps agree that if the Brits maintain a hold on Britian at the end of the day then they are holding better cards in the end. They forced germany to waste a turns worth of purchase to be able to join in the best case a few extra naval units and at worst lose the entire nayl in a single afternoon.
It reminds me of Admiral Jellico at Jutland and the First Sea Lord Winston Churchill who had famously remarked that Jellicoe was “the only commander on either side capable of losing the war in a single afternoon.”
I too feel that it may work the the risk is too great compared to the rewards.
Of course if germany gets a 8 bid they buy that tranny and invade on G1 thats a much better storyline.
Squirecam i will look at your plan and compare it with switch.
-
@Imperious:
Whether or not the block can defeat the channel dash or the Germans do survive with a crushed fleet after all is said and done the axis are in a worse position than before because they focused alot of money on naval units while ignoring the Soviets. Its like a German KBF rather than KRF. Dont you chaps agree that if the Brits maintain a hold on Britian at the end of the day then they are holding better cards in the end. They forced germany to waste a turns worth of purchase to be able to join in the best case a few extra naval units and at worst lose the entire nayl in a single afternoon.
A partial list of advantages:
1 - No UK IC. This is important in tournament games.
2 - No UK fleet. Germany still has one. This will cause a further delay to the UK.
3 - USA is building sea units to kill the german fleet, not transports.
4 - UK/USSR loses 92 IPC worth of sea units, for Germany’s 44-54 loss.And, once again, this discussion is focused on 2 issues. Can a block be found that prevents a merged fleet (even a weakened “fleet”) and also guarantees london is safe.
So far, that “simple” strategy still has not been posted. (Yes, there is a precog way which I can post)
-
No Mercy:
what exactly is going on with the German Navy build? or channel dash?
because on G2 the baltic and med fleet can link up between SE and Algeria (SZ 13) and the allies cannot stop this. I’m not saying much of the baltic fleet will make it, but the subs will because you can’t kill them all on turn 1
This may be true, while who has lost more at the end of the campaign is the real question
-
does failing the capture of London lead to a worse german position?
-
does this investment lead to problems down the road with money not spent on the real enemy russia?
-
Does the exchange and failure at least buy any time (tempo) for germany who now left the Baltic and has a rag fleet to limp back to the medd.
-
if it buys time for germany is the cost more value than the time or the other way around?
follow this on your map with the given moves by switch/JSP and crazy straw
-
-
Let’s just back track for a second. Â My original post on G2 fleet unification was as follows:
G2 fleet unification in SZ7-I have yet to have an opponent pull this off. As the allied player I can see it coming and no allied player worth his salt would allow it (IMHO) and it is easily countered.
This is based on an “Actual Game”. Â Squire wants to claim that it is possible but his strategy for doing so is completely unrealistic in real game play. Â What German player is going to forgo an attack on Egypt and the UK med DD allowing the UK Indian fleet to swoop into the Med. Â It’s ridiculous. Â Squire knows this, that’s why he won’t “Step up to the MIC”.
-
Well you dont have to bait him either…
I think the usual moves have to occur regardless
1 bom, 3 fighter and sub on west medd BB
BB, tranny, fighter on uk DD
land stuff and 2 fighters with lybia against egypt.
The attacks in russia depend on what they did so ill leave them out right now.
If egypt does not fall you are dealing with another uK fighter to reinforce UK carrier and if you leave the DD alone then the brits have a much greater threat against japan.
If you ignore egypt you may expect a UK factory soon in India ( after the resolution of the naval battles)
-
Let’s just back track for a second. Â My original post on G2 fleet unification was as follows:
G2 fleet unification in SZ7-I have yet to have an opponent pull this off. As the allied player I can see it coming and no allied player worth his salt would allow it (IMHO) and it is easily countered.
This is based on an “Actual Game”. Â Squire wants to claim that it is possible but his strategy for doing so is completely unrealistic in real game play. Â What German player is going to forgo an attack on Egypt and the UK med DD allowing the UK Indian fleet to swoop into the Med. Â It’s ridiculous. Â Squire knows this, that’s why he won’t “Step up to the MIC”.
1 - This is why you have a bid.
2 - You can attack egypt and still go west with the med fleet.
3 - Its not un realistic in “real” play.And the only one who has refused to “step up” and post their strategy is you.
-
OK lets change the storyline a bit and say the axis got a bid of 5 IPC. does this make or break the strategy? Now you got 45 IPC and your goal is the perform the channel dash.
since your medd fleet cannot head over to egypt illustrate the attacks on G1.
-
1 - This is why you have a bid.
But if you bid 6 to Lib, you lose your ftr in Ukr.
If you bid 6 to Ukr, you still lose the ftr in Ukr and now Egy is a serious question mark with 1 inf, 1 arm, 1 ftr, 1 bom in the attack. That still leaves the DD alive.
-
1 - This is why you have a bid.
But if you bid 6 to Lib, you lose your ftr in Ukr.
If you bid 6 to Ukr, you still lose the ftr in Ukr and now Egy is a serious question mark with 1 inf, 1 arm, 1 ftr, 1 bom in the attack. That still leaves the DD alive.
IL/DM
1 - Yes, bids are important. 5 v 6. UKR vs Egypt. Please remember that USSR goes first. If USSR does “too well” or “too poorly”, Germany wont bother to buy boats. If its too poor, Germany will simply go for russia when its down. If its too well, Germany cant afford boats.
2 - USSR has “no idea” that germany is buying a fleet. It must go first. Therefore, how do you know UKR will be attacked? Perhaps its belo/WR ?? Or WR only ?? Or a KJF ?? So you have to take these “precog” factors into account.
3 - With a 19 D in SZ6, you do not “need” 6 fighters. 5 will work. I have been using “6” because the challenge given by JSP told me to give him a scenario. That scenario, in my mind, went belo/WR and so the 6 fighters lived.
4 - Lets try a worst case. Assume IL’s 5 bid. (Tank lybia) UKR fighter is gone. You can still bring inf, 2 tanks and f/b to Egypt (off = 14) vs defense of 9.
Baltic is now trickier. (Switch) has BB, AC, 3 trans, sub and 2 fighters (20). Germany will need (minimum)Â 4 fighters, bomber, 3 subs, 2-3 transports, DD. (25). (Buy now AC/2tr/sub)
Germany will lose more units, true. BUT, it will still be able to sink and merge in SZ7. With at LEAST a loaded AC BB transport. Still “enough” to defeat the USA counter of DD, trans, fighter bomber.
So there it is, even at a minimum, (switch’s placement), and even using egypt and being down ukr, the merge is still likely. Which is what I have ben saying all along.
-
Squire-
The game thread is open, prove your point.
-
as 4 hits left, which is german avg hits round 2. UK hits 2-3 back.
Your posted USA (DD fighter bomber 1 trans) cannot beat a loaded AC, BB, 2 transports in SZ 7.
Squire you are missing some whole segments of this.
First off, you can;t GET to SZ7 on G2. You hve to kill a TRN in SZ12, which prevents combat movement beyond SZ12. And you have a major combat in SZ6. So after G2, whatever remains of the German fleets is in SZ6 and 12 after G2. You can;t link your fleets until G3. If you pull off some AF to kill the TRN to let your Med Fleet NCM through, then you weaken your SZ6 attack; and STILL end up with a fleet split between SZ7 and SZ6.
You are aslo assuming 6 living FIGs as Germany, and that is NOT a safe assumption. And if you DO put your entire Axis bid in Ukraine AND send the Med Fleet west on G1, then you have a SECOND BRITISH FLEET to deal with that will be in SZ15 on UK2, a fleet of 1 TRN, 2 DST, 1 AC, 2 FIG.
OK, so you JUST go after the UK fleet on G2. So here is the battle:
Allies: 2 TRN, 1 SUB, 1 BB, 1 AC, 2 FIG
Axis: 4 TRN, 2 SUB, 1 DST, 1 AC, 5 FIG, 1 BOM
According to FROOD, Germany loses all 4 TRN and a SUB in that battle, no more Sea Lion threat due to lack of TRNs. You just have a loaded AC, a SUB, and a DST sitting in SZ6.And since the German fleet is split after G2, the USA Counter IS viable against one or the other fleet. most likely the Med Fleet that has a BB, SUB and TRN. In that fight the US can bring A MINIMUM of 1 TRN, 1 DST, 1 FIG, 1 BOM and I ahve a 74.8% chance to take out the German ships in SZ12 on USA2. (they very likely can bring more, the DST that was in SZ20, and any carrier based FIGs built on US1)
And that my friend means NO MERGE on G3, because there is NOTHING TO MERGE.
For Turn 3, UK can amphib anywhere in the MED that they choose with their VERY strong fleet that you cannot counter. Africa is secure from Germany for the remainder of the game. London is safe from invasion. In Turn 2 USA sends their US1 naval builds to SZ8, UK drops new units in SZ8. Now the German fleet can run away to die later, or you can sacrifice it and the Luftwaffe trying to kill it.
Regardles, Russia is advancing strongly on Germany. Germany is down significant income to the Russians, and failled to gain income in Africa. They are lacking land units to maitnain defenses against Russia due to a complete lack of land units purchased on G1, and their AF is out of range to try to trade territories in Central Europe for all of G1, G2 AND G3. USA and UK are able to begin European landings in Turn 3, same as always. And Germany’s front to defend against the Allies is longer than normal this early in the game due to the presence of that UK fleet in the Med.
-
@ncscswitch:
Squire you are missing some whole segments of this.
First off, you can;t GET to SZ7 on G2. You hve to kill a TRN in SZ12, which prevents combat movement beyond SZ12. And you have a major combat in SZ6. So after G2, whatever remains of the German fleets is in SZ6 and 12 after G2. You can;t link your fleets until G3. If you pull off some AF to kill the TRN to let your Med Fleet NCM through, then you weaken your SZ6 attack; and STILL end up with a fleet split between SZ7 and SZ6.
Switch, I read Squire’s posts, and I think he is suggesting that the baltic AC doesn’t engage SZ6, and the Med BB, trn doesn’t engage SZ12. So your combat is 1 med sub -> sz 12 and Air, plus rest of baltic fleet -> SZ6. Then non-combat AC, BB, trn to sz7 and land 2 fighters there.
-
OK.
That will indeed get you a small force (1 AC, 1 BB, 1 TRN, 2 FIGs) to SZ7 on G2, with a few units left in SZ6, and possibly a SUB in SZ12 as well. But you are not unifying fleets, you are unifying ELEMENTS of the fleet then… 1 ship out of 5 from the Baltic, 2 ships from the Med. More than half of the fleet is un-merged.
Of course, since London is not at risk in that scenario, then the entire SZ10 USA fleet can go to SZ12 in USA1, meaning you need much more force than a SUB and a FIG to break through it, and extra US forces in Africa on US1. And of course the scattered units (the SUB in SZ12, any remaining units in SZ6) are immediately toast to UK2/US2 counters. Or the US plays as posted above and counters the fleet in SZ7 with a suicide run of 1 TRN, 1 DST, 1 FIG, 1 BOM, taking out the last TRN and a FIG on average leaving only a BB, AC, and FIG in SZ7, and Germany down to 3-4 FIGs alive, with reduced income and unlikely to purchase replacements; and of course, no Sea Lion threat remaining against London.
The next question is…
is a force of 3 ships and some FIGs worth the cost? And the cost is still the same as posted above:
UK Fleet in the Med
Russian forces holding Ukraine, Belo and trading Eastern/Balkans
No German income in AfricaI’ll grant, you CAN slow the US and UK in the Atlantic by a turn with this, but with the trade offs noted above and with INCREASING DRAMATICALLY the speed with which UK can insert forces in Central Europe to reinforce an already strengthened Russia. Personally, I think it is a VERY bad and risky move when it works, and a fatal for Germany move when it fails.
-
@ncscswitch:
OK.
That will indeed get you a small force (1 AC, 1 BB, 1 TRN, 2 FIGs) to SZ7 on G2, with a few units left in SZ6, and possibly a SUB in SZ12 as well. But you are not unifying fleets, you are unifying ELEMENTS of the fleet then… 1 ship out of 5 from the Baltic, 2 ships from the Med. More than half of the fleet is un-merged.
This is what I have been saying. The fleet can merge. Of course it has ben damaged. But its elements merge.
Of course, since London is not at risk in that scenario, then the entire SZ10 USA fleet can go to SZ12 in USA1, meaning you need much more force than a SUB and a FIG to break through it, and extra US forces in Africa on US1.
DD + 2 transports are (5). Sub + fighter (lybia, sice only 4 were used above) + trans fodder = 5. Its at least an equal battle.
And please, FOR THE LAST TIME, the whole point of this exercise was not discussing a counter, whether it is “optimal”, or anything else. The point has been, is there an absolute 100% block that JSP has that prevents both a merge and London. Or can the germans force a merge/london if they want to.
Now the upteenth hypo you have here switch STILL gives Germany decent odds to merge, PLUS decent odds of already having the Egypt canal closed. (14 v 9 R1). So still there is no 100% effective block posted, which was the point of this discussion. I’m tired of repeating it and tired of reading "well what about the counter. PLEASE stick with the hypo.
There is a “precog” block I will post
-
Squire-
The game thread is open, prove your point.
I’ve proven it here, thanks. Since you wont live up to your word, I see no reason to discuss anything further with you.
-
Question - What can be done to give the best shot at preventing a merge AND prevent the axis takeover from London, given an ac/3 transport buy.
Prior solutions
a - (switch) AC/BB/3 trans/sub/2 fighters in SZ 6, and either Trans or DD+2 trans in SZ 12. While this adeuately protects London, even down a fighter Germany HAS ODDS of merging, with at least a BB, AC and a transport.
b - (JSP) JSP, who started this discussion but has not posted any solutions since, put a DD in SZ6 and SZ 12, and a BB/AC, 2 trans and sub in SZ 7. This had the effect of Germany foregoing a merge, because London was wide open. His modified edition of 1 inf and 1 tank still failed to add enough troops to London.
UK had 3 inf, 3 tanks an art, 2 bombers, fighter and AA. (23) Germany has 4 Inf 4 arm, 6 fighters and a bomber. (38, 35 - aa loss). Even adding one more inf/art to UK from USA only makes it 27 vs 35.Â
The fleet DD’s prevent subs from passing through, so the most that can be put into SZ 7 would be 6 fighters + air (22) vs AC/BB/2Trans/Sub/2fighters (19). Certainly a battle that can go multiple ways.
Therefore, I believe the solutiuon with the best chance requires precognition.
1 - USSR R1 - buy 2 fighters. Fly other 2 to London (London Defense now 35 vs 35).
2 - USSR R2 - One or both of the second pair of fighters can fly to London and give it O/D punch strength superiority.
Suggested Topics
