OK, here is why 9…
As mentioned, 8 is just too darn easy. For the Axis, a quick grab of Karelia and India does the trick. For the Allies a bit harder, but a well timed Island Hop to grab Phillipines and Western can do the trick too (if India was defended and Russians sent West Russia Stack to liberate Karelia. 8 VC is a tactical win, but far from strategic victory. I have LOST games where I hit 8 VC early…
10 VC…
As the Axis, that means Karelia, India, Russia and either London or Western US are held by the Axis. Sorry, but if both Moscow and London have fallen, the Allies are way more than toast. In fact, you are only a few turns from 12 VC at that point, with no way in hell that the Allies can come back form that (remember, the adjudication for the number of VC’s is at the end of a full turn, after US has moved, so if Western US is held by the Axis AFTER USA’s move, then the Axis is BUILDING there next round, so much for DC…
9 VC…
This is a strategic victory. For the Axis to get 9, they have to take 3 from the allies and lose NONE. That means that they have Karelia, India, and Moscow (usually) and still control Western, Southern, Germany, Kwang, Phillipines and Tokyo. In other words, Russia is out of it, and the Allies ahve yet to make a single real gain against the axis in either Europe or the Pacific. Economically the Axis is WAY ahead at this point. Tactically, they are also way ahead, sicne Germany now only has to face the Atlantic, and Japan is free to go cross-pacific (or finish consolidating in Asia and Africa, trashing UK’s income to about 12 IPC’s). From here on out, it is simply playing it out.
And if it is NOT Moscow that falls as VC #9, or if the Allies have managed to take liberate Karelia or India, it is actually worse for the Allies. That means that either the US or UK has fallen completely, or that the US is about to fall because Western US is enemy held and will be building there before USA’s next turn.
From the Allied perspective it means that eitehr Germany is GONE (Paris, Rome and Berlin having fallen) AND Japan does nto hold Calcutta; or it means that the Axis is bottled up in their capitals, with massive IPC and territory loss (ripe to be bombed to zero produciton while Allies just keep ferrying in troops for the final strike).
It would take a MASSIVE screw up and/or and extreme series of complete dice fracks for either side to come back from being down to 3 VC’s.