What's the consensus on a standard bid?

[JamesG]

Said it before and will say it again.  I agree the Axis can win in Revised without a bid.  Which is a major improvement from classic A&A.  But if you want the winning percentages to be about 50/50 over the long term, the Axis needs an 8-9 IPC bid.  The TripleA War Club stats bear that out.

[Lucifer]

@ncscswitch:

Allowing for IPC carry over, I’d be willing to take a bid of $1 against most opponents…

Well, game then. I play allies, u play axis with bid 1. No tech. TripleA, can u host?

:-D :-) 8-) :lol: :-P :evil: :roll: :wink: :mrgreen:

I couldn’t resist :-))

[cyan]

um that was from LAST may i did you’ll get a response.

[DarthMaximus]

Lol @ the oldness of this thread.

However, this thread did get me thinking and I do have some new information from the League.  I started to go through some of the old games and got through about the last 6 pages (first half of this year).  I also eliminated games that I knew were defaults.  So I went through 89 games and found the following:

This is full bid placement (no restrictions)

5 bids - 5
6 bids - 19
7 bids - 31
8 bids - 28
9 bids - 6

Winners (Allies/Axis):

5 bids - 2/3
6 bids - 8/11
7 bids - 18/13
8 bids - 16/12
9 bids - 3/3

Percentages (Allies win %):

Overall - 47/42 - Allies win 52.8
5 bids - Allies win 40% (too small of a sample)
6 bids - Allies win 42.1%
7 bids - Allies win 58.1%
8 bids - Allies win 57.1%
9 bids - Allies win 50% (too small of a sample)

Eliminating the 5 and 9 bids and focusing on 6, 7, 8 we get:

6-8 bids - 42/36 - Allies win 53.8%

And if we just focus on 7 and 8 bids (which seems to be the norm now):

7-8 bids - 34/25 - Allies win 57.6%

So what does this all mean?  The Allies are doing fairly well in giving up 7 and 8 IPC.

Now this is still relatively small in terms of number of games and only through maybe June or July, but I think it does show that we do have quite a few players who are more than willing to give up 7 or 8 and still win.  I think I’ve been seeing a lot more 9’s as well, but that has been more recent.

[Jennifer]

@Lucifer:

@ncscswitch:

Allowing for IPC carry over, I’d be willing to take a bid of $1 against most opponents…

Well, game then. I play allies, u play axis with bid 1. No tech. TripleA, can u host?

:-D :-) 8-) :lol: :-P :evil: :roll: :wink: :mrgreen:

I couldn’t resist :-))

Shush, he might take you up on it! :P

Though, I have personally, never seen Switch bid 1 IPC against me or mine.

BTW, nice summary, DM.

[axis_roll]

8-9 would’ve been my guess for a typical bid these days.

Funny how you see the bid increase over time, just like it got that way in second edition as more players realized the true power of 3 on 2.

[trihero]

6-8 bids - 42/36 - Allies win 53.8%

And if we just focus on 7 and 8 bids (which seems to be the norm now):

7-8 bids - 34/25 - Allies win 57.6%

That is really strange, one would expect the percentage to go down if you analyze just the 7-8 bids. That means the Axis wins more of the time at a bid of 6…(in order to average out with the 7-8 range to get 53.8% for the Allies…!)

[Jennifer]

@Bean:

6-8 bids - 42/36 - Allies win 53.8%

And if we just focus on 7 and 8 bids (which seems to be the norm now):

7-8 bids - 34/25 - Allies win 57.6%

That is really strange, one would expect the percentage to go down if you analyze just the 7-8 bids. That means the Axis wins more of the time at a bid of 6…(in order to average out with the 7-8 range to get 53.8% for the Allies…!)

Maybe better axis players are bidding lower to get the axis while worse are bidding higher in hopes of getting the allies.  It’s only a 1 IPC difference really. (6 to 8 vs 7 or 8)

[trihero]

Lmao I see everyone do that thing where they put an 8 next to a ) and get 8).

I still wonder where the bid is. It’s quite reasonable to assume 9+ on the triple a ladder due to how the bids are restricted to 1 piece per territory and only half can be placed on the board, but if the better players are holding down the fort between 6-7, then it’s not really 8-9.

[Jennifer]

Icky poo-poo.  FIDA bids suck!

FIDA bids at AAMC drive the bid for AAR up to 17-20 IPC because you almost NEED two units with Germany.  Well, you may not against certain players, but good players vs good playesr almost need two units.  And heck, if I have to keep half of it in money, then I may as well make Japan rich for round 1 to deter a KJF!

[Weekend Gamer]

In my experience, bids fluctuate from a low of 5 or 6 to a high of 9.  For me, it depends on whether I prefer playing the Axis or the Allies.  I think good players can win with almost any bid as the Axis, whereas less experienced players probably need the greater options available in the 8-9 range.  Just my two cents.

[trihero]

The way our game is going I should have bid 15 or so.  :roll:

[Jennifer]

Wow, a 9 bid would be a luxury for me!  I usually come in at 6 or 7, depending who I am playing and how they normally bid.

I just don’t want Germany starting with a bonus submarine in SZ 8 or a bonus transport in SZ 14.

Too easy to sink both British Battleships with the former, too easy to hold Africa and threaten Caucasus with the later.

[DarthMaximus]

@DarthMaximus:

This is full bid placement (no restrictions)

5 bids - 5
6 bids - 19
7 bids - 31
8 bids - 28
9 bids - 6

Winners (Allies/Axis):

5 bids - 2/3
6 bids - 8/11
7 bids - 18/13
8 bids - 16/12
9 bids - 3/3

Percentages (Allies win %):

Overall - 47/42 - Allies win 52.8
5 bids - Allies win 40% (too small of a sample)
6 bids - Allies win 42.1%
7 bids - Allies win 58.1%
8 bids - Allies win 57.1%
9 bids - Allies win 50% (too small of a sample)

Eliminating the 5 and 9 bids and focusing on 6, 7, 8 we get:

6-8 bids - 42/36 - Allies win 53.8%

And if we just focus on 7 and 8 bids (which seems to be the norm now):

7-8 bids - 34/25 - Allies win 57.6%

Okay, I went back and went through games up until early Oct. (58 more games).  So, now thru 147 games:

This is full bid placement (no restrictions)

5 bids - 5
6 bids - 27
7 bids - 39
8 bids - 58
9 bids - 16
10 bids - 2

Winners (Allies/Axis):

5 bids - 2/3
6 bids - 15/12
7 bids - 23/16
8 bids - 32/26
9 bids - 10/6
10 bids - 1/1

Percentages (Allies win %):

Overall - 83/64 - Allies win 56.5%
5 bids - Allies win 40% (only 5 games played)
6 bids - Allies win 55.6%
7 bids - Allies win 58.9%
8 bids - Allies win 55.2%
9 bids - Allies win 62.5%
10 bids - Allies win 50.0% (only 2 games played)

Eliminating the 5 and 10 bids and focusing on 6, 7, 8, 9 we get:

6-9 bids - 80/60 - Allies win 57.1%

And if we just focus on 6, 7 and 8 bids:

6-8 bids - 70/54 - Allies win 56.5%

Well, taking into account more games fixed the 6 bid anomaly.  It now falls more into line with the 7 and 8.  Probably do to that fact that 5-6 bids may have won early but later showed to be beatable and the bid moved up to the 7-8 range.  97 games have had a 7 or 8 bid with 58 games having an 8 bid.

[Weekend Gamer]

I’m surprised the 8 bid is so popular – I must be under-bidding! :lol:

[trihero]

I’m not really surprised 8 is popular, but among the “upper class” that I perceive in these forums, 8 is out of the question.

[Jennifer]

I’m surprised it is so high.  I always feel like I’m pushing it at 7.

[axis_roll]

@Bean:

I’m not really surprised 8 is popular, but among the “upper class” that I perceive in these forums, 8 is out of the question.

The figures shows the allies are still winning more than losing, so the bid will go up.

Allied strategies are getting so tight, it’s hard for the axis to win, especially if they get poor early dice.  The allies can overcome bad early dice.

[Jennifer]

@axis_roll:

@Bean:

I’m not really surprised 8 is popular, but among the “upper class” that I perceive in these forums, 8 is out of the question.

The figures shows the allies are still winning more than losing, so the bid will go up.

Allied strategies are getting so tight, it’s hard for the axis to win, especially if they get poor early dice.  The allies can overcome bad early dice.

I disagree.  If the Allies really get stomped on round 1 and suffer poor defensive and offensive results on round 2, they may never recover against a machine of an axis player.

[Guest]

Strategies overall are improving.

But as has been mentioned, the Axis is more vulnerable to bad dice early than the Allies, thus the slight elevation of the bid from the 6-7 to the 7-8 range.

The fact that, after so many games have been played, that the bid is still averaging only a fraction over $7, and that the Axis still wins 9 out of 20 games means that things must be pretty well balanced at this point.