@ABWorsham4:
I am in no way playing down the role of Midway. What if Midway was won by Japan? It doesn’t win the war. They could not resupply a garrison on the island and it would have been taken back quickly.
Japan had no chance of winning a war with the U.S. How could Japan knock us out of the war? Even if all our carriers were knocked out, Japan would still lose. With so few first class pilots Japan would have quickly ran out of qualifed pilots, carriers or no carriers.
Japan’s only war winning plan should have been to invade India and hope that the British Empire would fall before the U.S acted. Doing this without the U.S taking action is risky and unlikly.
You guys rock! I enjoy talking WWII.
In WWI British and German fought the Jutland battle, the bigger sea battle in the battleships era (Dreadnought for being precise). Tactically it was a German victory but strategically the battle did not change the power ratio between the two fleets and do not allow the German Hoch See Flotte to break the blockade of the North Sea by the Grand Fleet.
Why I speak of Jutland? Because Jellicoe, Admiral of the Grand Fleet, was labelled by Churchill as “the man that may lose the war in one afternoon”! The admiral of the German Fleet, Scheer, however, was not the man that may won the war in one afternoon… England is already stifling Germany, the only thing needed was to continue to blockade Germany with the objective to weaken her, more and more. It was like a siege. Sometimese battles have asymmetrical prizes for the opponents involved.
Now coming back to Midway. Let’s first analyze the history as it went and only after trying to make hypothesis. USA won the battle in such a decisive way that mined the basis of the Japanese strategy. IJN Carriers and aircrafts strength was destroyed. There were few remaining veteran pilots able for teaching and preparing new pilots. There was no possibility to replace the lost carriers and the expert crews. The overall Japanese strategies was broken. Guadalcanal was simply a consequence of Midway.
Now we can speculate. What had changed if Japan had won Midway? Nothing. Japan had lost a more longer war, imho. The will of the USA people to avenge Peral Harbour was too strong. Japan, first of all, should have not attacked Pearl Harbour in the way they did. You may find an interesting analysis of Japanese economy and military compared to USA economy and military here:
http://www.combinedfleet.com/economic.htm
I will add that a big role in the Pacific war was played by USA submarines. They effectively cut the importation in Japan of resources coming from the new acquired territories. Resources that was the reason for Japan entered the war against USA.
So the only hope for Japan to win the war was to break USA morale. To “convince” USA politician, military and public opinion that conquering Pacific island after island will take a lot of years and blood. The people that lives during historical events have not all the information at disposal of the people that live after the historical events. War is made also of morale, will and vision not only of materiel. “If” Japan had won at Midaway those factors should have entered in play and who know what should have happen?
On the other hand. Guadalcanal. Japan was already on the defensive. Usa had the initiative. The obiective was to bleed the Japanese army and navy. What had changed if Japanese have won at Guadalcanal? On the materiel and economic plane nothing. On the morale plane nothing. Why? Because USA having won at Midaway are on the offensive. The USA felt superior to the Japanese. They had confidence in the Navy and in the Admirals.
So this is, IMHO, the importance of Battle of Midway. If I should ever write an history book on the Second Wolrd War the Midaway Battle will be one of the more important chapters of the book.
