Axis victory

[Jennifer]

Yes, you use a fighter/tactical bomber to clear SZ 96 and sail to SZ 92, I got that.  I even blessed you with superior dice results for the battle!  You sank the destroyer without losing anything!  33% od the time this costs you one of the planes.

I left the DD to block the Italians from hitting your fleet in SZ 92 and consolidated the remnants of ships I didnt slaughter hopelessly with them in SZ 92.  I have seen SZ 104 used to block, but the Italians can clear the sea zone.  If too much is left, the SZ 92 fleet and all aircraft can be lost and the Germans can just switch gears (instead of buying transports) and switch to submarines to keep England dead, or they can continue on, since you’ve removed most of the defenders.

[Cow]

isn’t that what the destroyer is for? then block with the carrier on 94.

[Cow]

so i can block you from hitting gibraltar. and those two air units on gibraltar can hit your navy (buy 1 carrier). so that is 6 air vs your navy. so you can’t just have a cruiser and battleship to defend it. unless you wanna shooka shooka 6 air vs 2 naval and 3 fighters.

like I said, lot of things can happen depending on G1, but in the event G1 is a blowout, an all hands on deck for UK is probable.
~correction 7 air if uk buys a fighter instead of 3 inf and saving 1 ipc. in which case you can’t take a 49% chance cruiser and battleship with 3 fighters is all ya need, because it would be 20% chance to defend. Carrier means -4 attackers instead of 2 transports (-3 transports depending on G1 income).

[Cow]

Not to mention it depends on how many subs survived G1 and what your strat bomb was like which determines UK’s inf count.
~
you could move back into the channel though. it depends on what is left on the board, but 9/10 times uk just buys all inf. sits tight. gibraltar is a good spot to be and having a blocker against a bombard is very good, but if the sub has to swing at the naval that’s another inf for UK.

usually you want the air on gib in case germany drops into scotland and goes for the sure shot the round after, you can sink him.

[Cow]

either way cmdr jennifer, round 3 germany can be very dicey if 5 bombers showed up to UK. Given the units you have laid out for me, uk@21 inf you got 90% range and that is without getting diced anywhere and doing 6 sub damage with solid strat bomb. uk @ 23 inf taking avgs gets ya to the 70% range (block bombardment or get an extra inf assuming your subs hammer the naval… an extra inf is about the equiv of two bombardments as two bombardments = 1 hit, but the inf can roll a 2 so the inf is a bit better).

Keep in mind germany starts with only 5 subs if I am not crazy, and you use 3 to kill uk transports. 1 for each of the other two naval battle. the odds you lose a fighter in either of the other naval battles… is not crazy. You could very likely show up with 1 less fighter bringing odds to a coin flip. plus there is no garauntee you walk out with 3 subs on G1 doing 6 damage. So you are giving UK a little lighter inf count.

maybe your luck is strong, but reality is UK round 3 is a coin flip, hence allied bids go at 6 ipc down to 3 or 2. It just isn’t going to happen every game if you let USA park 5 bombers on london. Plus it is worth it for USA to land 5 bombers on london, the # avg german attackers left drops to 5 with UK @23 inf taking the avg which means air losses for germany 30% chance defend. Getting a coin flip chance at holding london if UK has 24 inf, is even more awesome.

[Jennifer]

Why dont you take my Germany 1 map, alter it with your England moves and I’ll give you a new German map?

Also, there is no Airbase on Gibraltar. Â

[Cow]

oh yeah they took away the airbase on gib didn’t they. Gib is not even necessary then. still have to get those 2 air units over to UK securely.

[Jennifer]

Again, I’m giving you the absolute most likely out comes.

Between the two destroyers in SZs 106 and 109, you cannot possibily expect both to hit.  You can expect neither to hit as that will happen much more often than having both hit.  So it’s pretty safe to say there will be 3 submarines remaining out of the 4 that attacked there.

There are no destroyers left for England (in the Atlantic) so there are no attacks on submarines, you ARE taking Convoy, it’s only a matter of how much.  The argument was made that each submarine averages 2 damage, so 3 submarines ~ 6 damage.

Odds are very slim you hit a bomber on SBR (17% * 17% + 17%, about 20%) so it’s pretty safe to assume you won’t hit any of them - I gave you one anyway, but that’s not very likely an outcome.  Same for the AB, 20% so again, odds are slim you are hitting either tactical bomber as well.  Most likely, you’re actually 21 Infantry, 6 Fighters, 6 Strategic Bombers and 4 AA Guns against 13 Infantry, 4 Artillery, 9 Armor, 5 Fighters, 5 Tactical Bombers, 2 Strategic Bombers, Cruiser and Battleship, not the severely reduced numbers I gave you assuming England’s defense was well above par.  Even if you roll the AA Guns as both AA Guns and extra defending Bombers (so give them a defensive punch to boot) your odds are generally less than 10% you survive and I just cost you 5 American Strategic Bombers to boot.

Of course, if you introduce bids, things might change.  I don’t play with bids because Larry has failed to give us a game that is close enough to balanced to make bids worthwhile.   As it stands I think the allies need 15 IPC bid but have 24 IPC removed on round 6 to balance things out again (and what is removed and added as to go to England/America).  Basically, they get 5 infantry for England to drop the odds to a coin flip and then on round 6 they lose 3 destroyers so as to keep from being unbalanced again when America’s at full force.

[Jennifer]

@Cow:

oh yeah they took away the airbase on gib didn’t they. Gib is not even necessary then. still have to get those 2 air units over to UK securely.

Yes.  Your options are Gibraltar or Morocco

Germany has 3 Transports, 3 Infantry, 2 Artillery, Armor, 5 Fighters, 5 Tactical Bombers, 2 Strategic Bombers, Cruiser and Battleship that can hit either (assuming Italy took Algeria so there is a valid landing zone.)

[Cow]

yeah but that means you are moving out and the new transports you bought are guarded by 3 fighters only unless you buy another carrier or something.

morrocco is the sweetest deal because it has an inf on it already.

Either way 5 bombers on UK can make a battle you should win become a coin flip. Round 4 germany taking UK is always a garauntee, which is why I think UK should start out with an extra inf or two, but given the game is dice sometimes g1 is crazy and it loses pretty much nothing and sometimes g1 has more losses than usual.

It really depends, 5 bombers landing on UK makes G3 vs UK rough. I mean would you rather the sure thing or a gamble? Which is the whole point I been trying to drive. even if it is turns 90% to 70% that 20% increase in odds germany fails to take UK… is really crazy when it happens. If it turns it into a coin flip even better. Plus 5 bombers for USA who is out of position from the main theater of war is nothing especially if it leads to germany losing more armor and air than usual, because that is less the ruskies have to worry over. It has a more immediate effect on the europe game.

[wheatbeer]

Cow,

Germany will still go for it with those odds and if it starts to look too dicey it can disengage it’s air force after the US bombers are taken as casualties (after which transports will simply swing back the next turn).  Worst case scenario, London falls one turn later and the US is still down 60 IPC worth of material.  I think Germany will recover against Russia before the US recovers against Japan.

[Jennifer]

I agree with Wheat, I’d still go for London.

Yes, hitting Morocco and killing those planes means the transports dont have surface ship protection, but if they are in SZ 113 the only thing you can hit them with is a strategic bomber unless you pop 16 IPC for an Aircraft Carrier in which case you lost 6 infantry from your defense then it’s 3 fighters defending against 2 fighters, strategic bomber which is 30% for the attacker, 50% for the defender or basically 70% defender (since I dont have to win, I just have to stop you from winning) and 30% for the attacker.

So you’re down 5 aircraft (2 from Africa, 2 from England, bomber from England), 6 Infantry (cost of the aircraft carrier), 2 Infantry (cost from CRD by submarines), you have 11 to 13 damage on your industrial complex and your airbase had to be repaired which cost you 4 more (or 2 infantry).

Total:  4 Fighters, 1 Strategic Bomber, 7-9 Infantry

At this rate, I’ll take London with a vegetable pealer and a wad of chewing gum!

[Gargantua]

All of these WEAK players lack the Vision on how to use their allied forces to WIN Cow.  Don’t ever lose sight of that.

[Jennifer]

@Gargantua:

All of these WEAK players lack the Vision on how to use their allied forces to WIN Cow.  Don’t ever lose sight of that.

Says the man who hasn’t put up any dice in an attempt to both thwart the fall of London AND win the game. :P

[ronrye]

@Cmdr:

Last time I checked it’s still by map - COW.

Allies:  Take Tokyo or Berlin
Axis: Take 8 European Victory Cities or 6 Pacific Victory Cities

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If I am going Pacific, it’s because Sea Lion did not happen first of all.  Secondly, I’m going hard Pacific with 80% or more going for warships.  I want 4 transports and assorted ground units (5 infantry, 2 artillery, armor) on them and I need units for holding Alaska as well probably.

I’m happiest with 4 battleships and 4 carriers, (dds, cas, sss etc as well of course) but don’t care how that combo comes together.

Where did you get those rule conditions? I thought the Allies won by holding the 3 axis capitals for a complete round

[Jennifer]

Out of the Box Manual:

Allies win by controlling Tokyo, Japan for one full round of play
or
Allies win by controlling Berlin, Germany and Rome, Italy for one full round of play

[ronrye]

Uhhhh, well I can’t say what’s in the oob rules, because I don’t have europe, but don’t you play by Alpha 3 rules and victory conditions?

[knp7765]

@Cmdr:

Out of the Box Manual:

Allies win by controlling Tokyo, Japan for one full round of play
or
Allies win by controlling Berlin, Germany and Rome, Italy for one full round of play

I have to correct you here Jen.  I’ve got the OOB Manual for Europe 40 which also has the Global 40 rules.  On Page 31 under How the War Is Won, it states:
"The Allies win the game by controlling the territories of Germany, Southern Italy, and Japan for a complete round of play, as long as they control an Allied capital (Washington, London, Paris, or Moscow).

So you see, all the Axis capitals have to be in Allied hands, not just on one board or the other.  Only the Axis have split victory conditions and that is only in Alpha+3.  In OOB, the Axis simply had to control any 14 Victory Cities for a complete round of play, as long as they control an Axis Capital (Berlin, Rome or Tokyo).

[Jennifer]

@ronrye:

Uhhhh, well I can’t say what’s in the oob rules, because I don’t have europe, but don’t you play by Alpha 3 rules and victory conditions?

Personally?  I play by when the axis cry uncle the game is over.  I’ve never seen an Axis capitol both taken AND held before the Axis surrender.

[ronrye]

@Cmdr:

@ronrye:

Uhhhh, well I can’t say what’s in the oob rules, because I don’t have europe, but don’t you play by Alpha 3 rules and victory conditions?

Personally?  I play by when the axis cry uncle the game is over.  I’ve never seen an Axis capitol both taken AND held before the Axis surrender.

Right, the axis know when they can’t win, but according to your victory conditions, the Allies could win by taking Japan even if the Axis are about to win on the Europe board. (Although it is true that it’s almost impossible for Japan to be taken.) Another problem with that (of course, it would be rare) is that both the Allies and Axis could win according to those rules–if US takes Japan the same round the Axis control 8 VCs.