A different idea in defending London from Sea Lion

[Noll]

C) Germany parks the fleet sz110 and blocks the path from gib.
you attack the fleet with 5fig 1tac 1bmb vs 1bb 1cv 2fig (the ca is blocking)
92.0 % winning odds.

If germany g2 reinforce the fleet, enjoy less transports attacking london

[corriganbp]

Noll,

If Cmd Jen’s R3 sea lion is “scripted” then I wrote the script.  The problem is that it is not exactly a script since the way you play Japan and defend against Russia also matters.

Believe or not, I have thought about this.  I am thinking about counter sea lion moves, since this helps me improve my sea lion.

Under this scenario, I would build naval reinforcement out of my factory in Normandy.  Because you have done some things to make the defense weaker, I expect that more of my planes will survive and I can even build ACs.

I agree that knocking out the German navy is high priority in a counter sea lion strategy.  When Cmd Jen used sea lion against me, I was helped by the fact that her R2 Japan DOW allowed me to position the American airforce so that it could deal the death blow to the German navy.

However, the R2 Jap DOW also allowed her to use speed to her advantage and get a temporary Jap VC win, even though when we played it to R12, it was clear that the allies would win.

Having said that, I don’t believe that she will use the R2 Jap DOW in a sea lion scenario again.

[Noll]

If UK can force you spending some IPCS G2 on navy instead of transports I guess is still a win scenario! Germany will suffer heavily casualities.

Let’s suppose you build G2 1AC (16) in Normandy’s complex directly onto sz110, where you park your fleet to take London later on.

You now have 70-16 = 54 available IPCs in transports. That’s 3 less transports, so you get up to 9 transports.

At this point during UK2, UK will retreat all the aircrafts in London.

So you get this situation in UK:
Starting Forces
(4aa 3inf 4fig 1bmb)
UK#1 mobilize: 6inf 1fig
UK#2 mobilize: from 7 to 10 inf, depending on your CRD. Let’s say 7
UK#2 ncm: 1inf 1arm from the medi, 2fig 1tac from the medi.

You get in this scenario:
4aa 18inf 1arm 1tac 7fig 1bmb

You will attack London with:
2shore bombards, up to 9inf, 9arm, 5fig, 5tac, 2bmb.

with dskelly simulator you now have a 48% chance of taking London G3. (The simulator doesn’t account the AAs 4hits, so I replaced them with 2 virtual infs, the odds could be slightly different)

Don’t you think this is a good counter?

Personally if I were Germany and had this situation, I’d skip Sealion to G4, bring stuff to SCO or either attack heavily Russia, changing target, happy that I saved the entire Italian fleet from a fleeing UK.

[JimmyHat]

I see the same problems that we ran into doing the A2 sealion scenario.  Here are your hurdles.  First, when UK blocks in sz110 to try and prevent Germ from blocking them in, in actuality Italy will clear that blocker with aircraft.  That will allow Germany to place CA off Gibraltar and perhaps even another ships in sz….104?  This is going to prevent you from returning to Atlantic.  Secondly, I believe you will want to land all aircraft in London to increase the defense of your capital, and not put 2 planes on the CV, but perhaps this is up to playstyle.

There is also a chance the UK fleet in Med gets airstriked by Germ.

[Noll]

@JimmyHat:

First, when UK blocks in sz110 to try and prevent Germ from blocking them in, in actuality Italy will clear that blocker with aircraft.

Hey Jimmy, in sz110 the UK will/could scramble up to 3figs.

Also, the UK fleet getting airstriked by Germany will prevent G3 Sealion. What survived of the German aircrafts will be in North Africa, unable to attack London G3.

[gsh34]

@corriganbp:

However, the R2 Jap DOW also allowed her to use speed to her advantage and get a temporary Jap VC win, even though when we played it to R12, it was clear that the allies would win.

Corriganbp,

I’m a bit confused.  What do you mean by “temporary”?  Either she had a Japanese VC win or not.

[Jennifer]

@gsh34:

@corriganbp:

However, the R2 Jap DOW also allowed her to use speed to her advantage and get a temporary Jap VC win, even though when we played it to R12, it was clear that the allies would win.

Corriganbp,

I’m a bit confused.  What do you mean by “temporary”?  Either she had a Japanese VC win or not.

I did have a Japanese win.  We agreed to play things out after I won the game to see what would happen.  As expected, the Axis who did not plan to continue after winning the game were unable to defend themselves against the allies who had no idea they were about to lose the game.

[Jennifer]

Failing to see why activating Ireland is needed for the defense or liberation of London early in the game.  And no, I won’t play 3 people again, that was the stupidest fucking move I have EVER made and will NEVER do that again (myself vs 3 allies.)  Ugh!

Anyway…no, you cannot defend London.  Unless Germany makes a mistake, London dies 100% of the time and there is not a dang thing you can do about it.  Question is, what do you do after it falls?

I see three schools of thought:
1)  Turtle and hope to inflict greater than expected casualties on the Germans so that America can liberate later.
2)  Evacuate and hope to contain the Italians until the Russians can invade.
3)  Ignore the whole thing and crush Japan using my tried and true Kill Japan First strategies from Alpha 2.

[Alsch91]

Does doing 3 prevent you from doing 1 or 2?

[Jennifer]

@Alsch91:

Does doing 3 prevent you from doing 1 or 2?

Not really.  You could do 1&3 or 1&2, I suppose.

The real problem is that Kill England First is reactive, you have to see what the Allies do on Round 1 and make a determination at the start of Italy 1.  Does America do something silly like move to SZ 16?  Then you know the jig is up, dont buy the bases, dont declare war, move back and focus on China.  Does England move for Gibraltar and ignore the Italian fleet?  The jig is up, run and push on Russia instead!

You cannot test a theory if your opponent knows what you are testing.  Jim and Jimmy found a way to stop Sea Lion in Alpha 2, it was at the expense of everything else and assumed that Germany had to buy 10 transports on round 2, but they could do it.  Same for Alpha 3.  America can stop Kill India first by giving up it’s fleet and it’s position on the board.  America can stop Germany from recovering after Sea Lion, if they know it is coming, by moving their warships out of the Pacific.  (Granted in the one case this was tried, they lost anyway and Japan won, but they met their mission objective - which was to allow Russia free reign in Europe.)  Sorry, but it cannot be done. You cannot test a theory on someone that knows you are testing a theory - especially if they know what the theory is.

I am certain, given an unsuspecting opponent, that the Kill England First strategy will win at least 90% of the time.

[Noll]

Hey Jenn, American can punish Japan when they leave Japan almost empty by moving the fleet in sz7 or 16 (7 is a better place, cause you also get navies from sz10). This doesnt mean you’re giving your fleet away, also it doesnt mean you do that ONLY when Japan attacks India.

You position yourself there and see what Japan does. IF he comes back to defend, just retreat in MIDWAY, builda a naval base, and get another round of reinforcements.

[Jennifer]

An extremely minor adjustment of putting the Japanese fleet in SZ 33 on round 1 and then driving it back to the FIC coast (or at least what you now know you need there) on round 2 would pretty much kill that American strategy.  With the DD in SZ 6 and the fleet from SZ 33 Japan can swat that fleet in SZ 16 - threaten to cut it off from Hawaii by taking SZ 26 and generally give America the impression that India is not the main target.

Why leave a destroyer in SZ 6?  So you can attack SZ 16 (if they are there) and retreat everything to SZ 6 after damaging their carriers - then you can watch all the pretty planes fall into the ocean. (Meaning America pretty much has to lose planes in proportion to carriers and weaken their defense.)

[Noll]

Then do that next time.

[Jennifer]

@Noll:

Then do that next time.

I will.

You cannot hit the transports off the coast of Kwangsi until I am at war, and Caroline Islands can get there the same round I declare war.  Meanwhile the fleet is in range of SZ 16, SZ 25 and SZ 26 forcing the Americans to at least turtle off the coast of SZ 25 or SZ 26 - both of which can be blocked by the Japanese destroyer.  It’s a very minor tweak with lasting impacts.

[Noll]

India can attack sz36

[Jennifer]

@Noll:

India can attack sz36

Not with the board the way I envisioned it:

You have to take Sumatra back (usually, unless India goes for C. Persia instead) so you’re going to have a transport there at least.  You don’t want it to get sniped, you want India to have to invest to kill it, so you put a surface warship you can spare as well.  So you place a Destroyer to “protect” the transport.  India has to risk a plane or send the battleship to kill it (in which case they have a 33% chance to not have a plane or 100% chance of not having the battleship in position.)  In SZ 38 you have your surface fleet.  All routes to SZ 36 from SZ 39 are closed and there is no possible way for India to attack transports in SZ 36 anymore, nor can they “block” them from landing in India.

You may have the australians, but not the Indians!

[Noll]

check my game with corrigan, I attacked his fleet in sz36.
You can land in FIC. So you need a decent fleet parked there, and if your enemy does what I did (take JAVA UK1, land anzac fighters ANZ1) he will attack the same fleet with up to 1dd 1cv and 3fighters. You risk loosing everything if you don’t put enough ships. Just telling!
Yes, the trade is GOOD, 'cause India and Anzac won’t easily replace what they gave you, but if that can save the Americans 1 turn invested in the pacific… you know the deal.

[Jennifer]

So leave a loaded carrier in SZ 36 (you don’t need all three in SZ 33 to scare the Americans, not on round 1) and a destroyer in SZ 37.  Two can play the blockade game.  That leaves aircraft only really and I’ll give you a carrier and a fighter to remove all hope of Indian defense.

[Cow]

don’t you need your destroyer to prevent 1 sub purchase, which can prevent your india drop if you don’t have other naval to fire on it?

[Jennifer]

@Cow:

don’t you need your destroyer to prevent 1 sub purchase, which can prevent your india drop if you don’t have other naval to fire on it?

You can ignore submarines if you have warships with your transports.  So no, India purchasing a submarine (even if there were no Destroyers in range to kill it) would not stop the amphibious portion of the attack.  Furthermore, if all India has is a submarine in SZ 39, it does not even stop the Battleships and Cruisers from performing Shore Bombardments.