Thanks for the criticism.
I do agree that the historical justification for my idea is not clear, but consider that the present Axis goal of controlling 14 cities isn’t necessarily historical either. Militarily, no side was going to give up while they still had fight in them. If the Nazis had crushed Russia and overrun Egypt, I think we would still have tried to take them out. Churchill didn’t think of giving up even after Hitler cut through France like butter. Likely we still would have carried out a US/British invasion of France, and Germany would have had to scramble to defend themselves after expending so much to crush the Red Army and subjugate the Russian people. If Japan had taken Honolulu and Calcutta at the same time, would we have laid down our arms?
For this reason, I believe that the 14 VC condition is not intended to reflect a situation in which the Axis will be capable of eventually prevailing over the Allied military. It more reasonably represents a situation in which the Axis powers will be able to exit the war without having to offer their unconditional surrender. It could represent a level of Axis expansion at which it would no longer be worth it to the Allies to attempt to crush them utterly as they did historically. This could be for any of a number of reasons, including unacceptable loss of life, too much long-term damage to Allied economies, or a shift in public opinion against continuing the war. Realistically, an Axis “victory” probably would have been a treaty in which Germany, Japan and Italy would be allowed to retain some, but not all of their new holdings.
What if Japan had reached this threshold of unacceptability while Germany and Italy were steadily being reduced? Possibly Japan would have been able to exit the war retaining much of their empire, and this would have been a bad result for the people in that side of the globe. Considering that the war was begun as a stand against tyranny and oppression, an Allied failure to eliminate any quantity of tyranny and oppression against which they were fighting could be seen as a loss. Or, looking at it another way, if Tojo had accomplished his goals while watching Nazi Germany implode, would he have shed any tears?
As far as game balance, I think this new way would certainly not tilt the game in favor of the Axis. I’ve played and won several times as the Allies using a split Pacific/European strategy that would have made a one-theater Axis victory unlikely. I still think the game would be tilted towards the Allies, but they would just have to be a bit more careful about the strategies they employed. I think the games would become more interesting and a little bit more historical.
As to the Allies achieving a one-theater victory, I believe that given their victory conditions of having to control enemy capitals it would be a bit harder to do and usually take more time than the Axis performing the same feat.