K, how about this? Let’s call it the Double Block plus Italy Save Manuever. I would only recommend this if you’re feeling lucky.
Germany builds 1 DD and 3 TRNS. The German fleet is kept in SZ 113 during G1 combat, which just uses subs and planes to kill everything reachable with more air casaulties acceptable.
NCM: 1 CA moves to SZ 104 to block the DD and CV. The BB stays in SZ 113 along with the TRN (trn moves 2 inf to Norway.) The DD is placed in SZ 112, and the 3 other TRNS go into SZ 113. Land Material is moved to W. Germany to prep for a 4 TRN G2 Sealion.
Britain can attack the SZ 104 CA with one DD and one tac, attack the SZ 112 DD with one fighter, and HAS to attack SZ 113 with two fighters. They HAVE to make this specific attack in order to hit the transports in SZ 113 for the CV to be in range for the fighters to land. Actually, the SZ 112 DD place is more about preventing a UK naval block with its CV in SZ 112 than for the 2 fighters to land.
If the SZ 113 battle goes right (2 FIG vs. 1 BB, 52% chance of the UK winning using TripleA calc, with a 17% chance of a draw and the transports surviving), the 4 transports should be able to still land on the UK IF SZ 112 is clear. The chances of the UK winning the SZ 104 battle is 86%, with a 7% chance for a draw, and the chance of the UK winning the SZ 112 battle is 50%, with a 25% chance for a draw. That’s two 50% chances there, plus you have a good chance of shooting down quite a bit of the UK’s airforce.
Even if the SZ 104 attack kills your CA, and the SZ 112 attack kills your DD, so the UK moves its CV into SZ 112, even if it only has one plane on it you may still have a chance. Both Italian fighters can reach SZ 112 on I1 and you can have a last ditch attack to try to clear the way for a Sealion G2 (another 50% chance of winning there with one plane).
Pretty risky, but it does leave the german airforce mostly intact for Sealion G2 and doesn’t require a G1 UK air raid.
