Our little gaming group has played P40 about 30 times or so. In the beginning, especially after we saw how effective the J1 attack was, Japan always won. Lately that has changed.
The Chinese, Brits, ANZAC do what they can to delay the Japanese from overwhelming them. Like always. The U.S. buys 2 AC’s and 2 Transports to add to the 1 of each they start with on the west coast, and from then on buys submarines and bombers to attack the Sea of Japan. This continues for a long time until the Americans have naval parity and eventually naval supremacy.
A note on attacking. Only attack with submarines and airplanes. Never commit your Battleship, Aircraft Carriers, Cruisers or Destroyers. If there are few air units in Japan, attack with the carrier planes leaving the carries in an adjacent sea zone out of range from this airplanes in the Caroline Islands or China. The point of the attacks to exchange submarines for his surface ships or his airplanes. If the subs are lost they should have killed more expensive units. If there are no naval units in the Sea of Japan, send in a few subs (2 or 3) on convoy attack duty in the Sea of Japan and around the Dutch East Indies. When he counter attacks with destroyer or two, hit him again. Remember your air can get hits on his air units. And unless the Japanese rolled very well, the Americans only took hit on their submarines. If you lost the first round retreat with the planes. If you kill all his navy, so it is only planes on planes, unless you outnumber the Japanese by a lot, submerge the subs and retreat the planes.
The order of battle.
US 1 - buy 1 AC or 2 TR depending on whether or not the Japanese plan to menace Australia or Hawaii. If they do not, skip the TR buy for now.
US 2 - buy 1 or 2 AC’s and a Naval Base for Midway. Move the American force to Midway. Unless the entire Japanese Navy is nearby, these Japanese should leave you alone and guard the Sea of Japan and the Caroline Islands. The submarines and bombers do not defend well at all. An all submarine and bomber force is easily attacked by a destroyer and a few fighters. So the Carrier Task Force around Midway only real purpose is to protect the west coast and the submarines.
US 3 - buy 5 submarines and 2 bombers. Look to see if you have enough to attack the Sea of Japan or the Caroline Islands with submarines and bombers only. This may or may not be combined with naval air from the carriers.
US 4 - buy 4 submarines , 2 bombers and 1 destroyer. The occasional destroyer is necessary to screen with. By now the US player should have enough to attack with. If he does not, continue to build up and realize that you are drawing air planes and money from the attack on the Asian mainland.
US 5 and later, continue to buy submarines and bombers until you feel strong enough to invade an island or two, and stay. Build sufficient forces to defend surrounding navy w/air base and planes and attack his naval forces further in.
Weaknesses of the above strategy. This is a war of attrition to wear down the Japanese and gain naval supremacy. It does take a while. If the Japaneses offensive on the Asian Mainland goes very well, it may take too long.
In addition, the Japanese may not base any destroyers or navy in the Sea of Japan. He will hold a few destroyers in reserve near the Chinese Coast to counter attack with. Just leave a few submarines in the Sea of Japan, no more than submarines than he has destroyers. The turn after he counter attacks, attack his destroyers with submarines and air planes. This will wear him down. But like above, it is slow going.
We have found with good play from the U.K. and Chinese, that the Allies can survive long enough to put pressure on the Japanese with this strategy and sometimes even win. We have found no quick way to put pressure on the Japanese as their air force is just too strong.
Test it out, it has worked for me a few times against good players. It may even work for you.