GovZ (A+60) vs ABH kjf test Low Luck

[Arthur Bomber Harris]

Meanwhile the Indian navy is about to be obliterated on J3 as the planes from FIC can assist. Something like this move:
J3 possibility.tsvg

That will end like this:
J3 end.tsvg

Not a fantastic start for Japan, but good enough to hold on while the Axis wins in Europe.

[GovZ]

Franzac2.tsvg

Game History

Round: 2

    Purchase Units - ANZAC
        ANZAC buy 2 submarines and 1 transport; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 

    Combat Move - ANZAC
        3 fighters moved from Queensland to 42 Sea Zone

    Combat - ANZAC
        Battle in 42 Sea Zone
            ANZAC attack with 3 fighters
            Japanese defend with 1 transport
                1 transport owned by the Japanese lost in 42 Sea Zone
            ANZAC win with 3 fighters remaining. Battle score for attacker is 7
            Casualties for Japanese: 1 transport

    Non Combat Move - ANZAC
        3 fighters moved from 42 Sea Zone to 39 Sea Zone
        1 cruiser moved from 63 Sea Zone to 54 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Northern Territory to South Australia
        2 infantry moved from New South Wales to South Australia
        1 mech_infantry moved from New South Wales to Queensland

    Place Units - ANZAC
        2 submarines and 1 transport placed in 62 Sea Zone

    Turn Complete - ANZAC
        ANZAC collect 10 PUs; end with 10 PUs
        Trigger ANZAC 1 Control Original And Malaya: ANZAC met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 15 PUs

    Combat Move - French

    Non Combat Move - French
        1 destroyer moved from 80 Sea Zone to 39 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Trans-Jordan to Egypt
        1 infantry moved from French Central Africa to French Equatorial Africa

    Turn Complete - French

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

[GovZ]

@arthur-bomber-harris said in GovZ (A+60) vs ABH kjf test Low Luck:

Meanwhile the Indian navy is about to be obliterated on J3 as the planes from FIC can assist. Something like this move:
J3 possibility.tsvg

That will end like this:
J3 end.tsvg

Not a fantastic start for Japan, but good enough to hold on while the Axis wins in Europe.

That looks about right. I don’t think India will fall. The IJN gets counter attacked, and the remaining boats then have to fight their way back to a NB.

And you are probably correct about Europe, but Axis tend to win anyway.

[Arthur Bomber Harris]

@govz 60 bid should be very balanced and certainly shouldn’t show such an easy Axis win so early in the game for a good strategy.

Compare your plan vs a more conventional Allied play in a playoff game. I would say that the Allies are in a better position after three turns, although superior gameplay by the Axis player is allowing him to make a strong comeback in turn 18. Still uncertain who will eventually win.

fra3 (3).tsvg

https://www.axisandallies.org/forums/topic/39585/2022-oob-playoffs-r1-andrewaagamer-x-vs-oysteilo-a-60/158?_=1685763984649

[Arthur Bomber Harris]

G3.tsvg

Game History

Round: 3

    Research Technology - Germans

    Purchase Units - Germans
        Germans buy 1 armour, 1 bomber, 1 destroyer and 5 mech_infantrys; Remaining resources: 1 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Germans
        1 infantry moved from Vyborg to Novgorod
              Germans take Novgorod from Russians
        6 infantry moved from Karelia to Novgorod
        1 infantry moved from Baltic States to Belarus
              Germans take Belarus from Russians
        1 armour moved from Bessarabia to Rostov
              Germans take Rostov from Russians
        1 destroyer moved from 113 Sea Zone to 125 Sea Zone
        1 submarine moved from 112 Sea Zone to 125 Sea Zone
        1 bomber moved from Western Germany to 125 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Eastern Poland to Western Ukraine
              Germans take Western Ukraine from Russians

    Combat - Germans
        Battle in 125 Sea Zone
            Germans attack with 1 bomber, 1 destroyer and 1 submarine
            Russians defend with 1 submarine
                Germans roll dice for 1 submarine in 125 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 bomber and 1 destroyer in 125 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/0 hits, 1.00 expected hits
                Russians roll dice for 1 submarine in 125 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits
                1 submarine owned by the Russians and 1 submarine owned by the Germans lost in 125 Sea Zone
            Germans win, taking 125 Sea Zone from Neutral with 1 bomber and 1 destroyer remaining. Battle score for attacker is 0
            Casualties for Germans: 1 submarine
            Casualties for Russians: 1 submarine

    Non Combat Move - Germans
        1 submarine moved from 115 Sea Zone to 113 Sea Zone
        1 bomber moved from 125 Sea Zone to Western Germany
        1 infantry moved from Western Germany to 113 Sea Zone
        1 artillery moved from Western Germany to 113 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from 113 Sea Zone to Norway
        1 artillery moved from 113 Sea Zone to Norway
        2 infantry moved from Finland to Karelia
        2 aaGuns and 2 artilleries moved from Normandy Bordeaux to France
        3 submarines moved from 90 Sea Zone to 92 Sea Zone
        2 armour, 2 artilleries and 8 infantry moved from Bessarabia to Ukraine
        3 armour and 3 mech_infantrys moved from Eastern Poland to Ukraine
        3 aaGuns, 3 artilleries and 12 infantry moved from Eastern Poland to Western Ukraine
        4 infantry moved from Romania to Bessarabia
        6 armour and 3 mech_infantrys moved from Yugoslavia to Bessarabia
        4 armour and 6 mech_infantrys moved from Germany to Eastern Poland
        3 tactical_bombers moved from Southern Italy to Ukraine

    Place Units - Germans
        1 armour and 5 mech_infantrys placed in Germany
        1 bomber placed in Western Germany
        1 destroyer placed in 113 Sea Zone
        Turning on Edit Mode
        EDIT: Removing units owned by Germans from 125 Sea Zone: 1 destroyer
        EDIT: Adding units owned by Germans to 125 Sea Zone: 1 submarine
        EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode

    Turn Complete - Germans
        Total Cost from Convoy Blockades: 0
            Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 93 Sea Zone. Rolls: 6,4
        Germans collect 52 PUs; end with 53 PUs
        Trigger Germans 5 Swedish Iron Ore: Germans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 58 PUs
        Objective Germans 2 Control Novgorod Or Volgograd Or Russia: Germans met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 63 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Russians regular : 0.83
Germans regular : -0.33

[Arthur Bomber Harris]

Moscow falls G5 unless you retreat most of your Russian forces from Asia back to the capitol. They did not contribute anything of significance in this game and would have been better supporting skirmishes in Eastern Europe.

Assuming you turtle in Moscow, Germany should be in control of the Middle East on G6, earning ridiculous income.

[GovZ]

R3.tsvg

Game History

Round: 3

    Purchase Units - Russians
        Russians buy 1 fighter and 9 infantry; Remaining resources: 3 PUs; 

    Combat Move - Russians
        18 infantry moved from Amur to Korea
              Russians take Korea from Japanese
        1 artillery moved from Bryansk to Rostov
        2 infantry moved from Volgograd to Rostov

    Combat - Russians
        Battle in Rostov
            Russians attack with 1 artillery and 2 infantry
            Germans defend with 1 armour
                Russians roll dice for 1 artillery and 2 infantry in Rostov, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.83 expected hits
                Germans roll dice for 1 armour in Rostov, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.50 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Russians and 1 armour owned by the Germans lost in Rostov
            Russians win, taking Rostov from Germans with 1 artillery and 1 infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 3
            Casualties for Russians: 1 infantry
            Casualties for Germans: 1 armour
        Trigger Russians Conquer Japanese Territory By Mongolia: Setting switch to false for conditionAttachment_Mongolia_May_Change_To_Russians_Control_Switch attached to Russians

    Non Combat Move - Russians
        4 aaGuns, 2 artilleries and 25 infantry moved from Bryansk to Russia
        1 fighter moved from Szechwan to India
        3 mech_infantrys moved from Sikang to Szechwan
        2 aaGuns moved from Amur to Korea
        5 infantry moved from Archangel to Vologda
        1 tactical_bomber moved from India to Szechwan

    Place Units - Russians
        1 fighter and 9 infantry placed in Russia

    Turn Complete - Russians
        Total Cost from Convoy Blockades: 3
            Rolling for Convoy Blockade Damage in 6 Sea Zone. Rolls: 3,4
        Russians collect 27 PUs (3 lost to blockades); end with 30 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Germans regular : 0.50
Russians regular : 0.17

Scramble the Russian fighters. Max defense. This battle really should be setup on the battle board.

[GovZ]

@arthur-bomber-harris said in GovZ (A+60) vs ABH kjf test Low Luck:

@govz 60 bid should be very balanced and certainly shouldn’t show such an easy Axis win so early in the game for a good strategy.

Compare your plan vs a more conventional Allied play in a playoff game. I would say that the Allies are in a better position after three turns, although superior gameplay by the Axis player is allowing him to make a strong comeback in turn 18. Still uncertain who will eventually win.

That game is kinda proving my point: The standard method needs a 60 bid just to stalemate the Axis for 20 turns before being overrun. I’m experimenting with the Allies to see if I can find a better way. I started with seeing if I could keep India alive into the midgame. It worked so well in testing, I brought it here.

I haven’t really thought much about the European side of the board. You can do a lot with the 54 remaining in the bid. I’ve been looking at using the bid in the Med. Maybe putting bid units in Russia would work. Maybe spend more of the bid to put down Japan even faster. Any suggestions would be appreciated.

[Arthur Bomber Harris]

J3.tsvg

Game History

Round: 3

    Purchase Units - Japanese
        Japanese buy 1 armour, 1 bomber, 1 fighter, 1 infantry, 1 mech_infantry, 2 submarines and 1 tactical_bomber; Remaining resources: 0 PUs; 6 SuicideAttackTokens; 

    Combat Move - Japanese
        1 artillery moved from Sumatra to 41 Sea Zone
        1 artillery and 1 transport moved from 41 Sea Zone to 39 Sea Zone
        2 battleships, 3 carriers, 1 cruiser, 1 destroyer, 4 fighters, 2 submarines and 2 tactical_bombers moved from 41 Sea Zone to 39 Sea Zone
        2 fighters and 4 tactical_bombers moved from French Indo China to 39 Sea Zone
        1 bomber moved from French Indo China to 39 Sea Zone
        1 bomber moved from French Indo China to 39 Sea Zone
        3 artilleries, 8 infantry and 1 mech_infantry moved from Hunan to Yunnan
        1 artillery and 1 infantry moved from Kwangsi to Yunnan
        1 tactical_bomber moved from French Indo China to 37 Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from French Indo China to 37 Sea Zone
        1 infantry moved from Chahar to Suiyuyan
              Japanese take Suiyuyan from Chinese
        1 infantry moved from Anhwe to Hopei
              Japanese take Hopei from Chinese
        1 infantry moved from Anhwe to Kweichow
              Japanese take Kweichow from Chinese

    Combat - Japanese
        British scrambles 3 units out of India to defend against the attack in 39 Sea Zone
        Battle in 37 Sea Zone
            Japanese attack with 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber
            British defend with 1 destroyer
                Japanese roll dice for 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber in 37 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 1.17 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 destroyer in 37 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.33 expected hits
                1 destroyer owned by the British lost in 37 Sea Zone
            Japanese win with 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber remaining. Battle score for attacker is 8
            Casualties for British: 1 destroyer
        Battle in Yunnan
            Japanese attack with 4 artilleries, 9 infantry and 1 mech_infantry
            Chinese defend with 3 infantry
                Japanese roll dice for 4 artilleries, 9 infantry and 1 mech_infantry in Yunnan, round 2 : 4/1 hits, 3.67 expected hits
                Chinese roll dice for 3 infantry in Yunnan, round 2 : 1/0 hits, 1.00 expected hits
                1 infantry owned by the Japanese and 3 infantry owned by the Chinese lost in Yunnan
            Japanese win, taking Yunnan from Chinese with 4 artilleries, 8 infantry and 1 mech_infantry remaining. Battle score for attacker is 6
            Casualties for Japanese: 1 infantry
            Casualties for Chinese: 3 infantry
        Battle in 39 Sea Zone
            Japanese attack with 1 artillery, 2 battleships, 2 bombers, 3 carriers, 1 cruiser, 1 destroyer, 6 fighters, 2 submarines, 6 tactical_bombers and 1 transport
            British defend with 2 carriers, 2 cruisers, 3 destroyers, 1 fighter, 1 submarine and 1 transport; French defend with 1 destroyer; ANZAC defend with 3 fighters; Russians defend with 3 fighters
                Japanese roll dice for 2 submarines in 39 Sea Zone, round 2 : 1/1 hits, 0.67 expected hits
            Units damaged: 1 carrier owned by the British
                Japanese roll dice for 2 battleships, 2 bombers, 3 carriers, 1 cruiser, 1 destroyer, 6 fighters, 6 tactical_bombers and 1 transport in 39 Sea Zone, round 2 : 10/1 hits, 10.50 expected hits
                British roll dice for 1 submarine in 39 Sea Zone, round 2 : 0/1 hits, 0.17 expected hits
                British roll dice for 2 carriers, 2 cruisers, 4 destroyers, 7 fighters and 1 transport in 39 Sea Zone, round 2 : 7/1 hits, 7.67 expected hits
            Units damaged: 2 battleships owned by the Japanese
                3 tactical_bombers owned by the Japanese, 1 destroyer owned by the French, 3 destroyers owned by the British, 2 cruisers owned by the British, 2 submarines owned by the Japanese, 1 submarine owned by the British and 2 carriers owned by the British lost in 39 Sea Zone
                Japanese roll dice for 2 battleships, 2 bombers, 3 carriers, 1 cruiser, 1 destroyer, 6 fighters, 3 tactical_bombers and 1 transport in 39 Sea Zone, round 3 : 8/1 hits, 8.50 expected hits
                British roll dice for 7 fighters and 1 transport in 39 Sea Zone, round 3 : 4/1 hits, 4.67 expected hits
                2 tactical_bombers owned by the Japanese, 1 fighter owned by the Japanese, 3 fighters owned by the Russians, 3 fighters owned by the ANZAC, 1 transport owned by the British, 1 fighter owned by the British and 1 cruiser owned by the Japanese lost in 39 Sea Zone
            Japanese win, taking 39 Sea Zone from Neutral with 2 battleships, 2 bombers, 3 carriers, 1 destroyer, 5 fighters, 1 tactical_bomber and 1 transport remaining. Battle score for attacker is 82
            Casualties for Japanese: 1 cruiser, 1 fighter, 2 submarines and 5 tactical_bombers
            Casualties for British: 2 carriers, 2 cruisers, 3 destroyers, 1 fighter, 1 submarine and 1 transport
            Casualties for French: 1 destroyer
            Casualties for ANZAC: 3 fighters
            Casualties for Russians: 3 fighters

    Non Combat Move - Japanese
        Turning on Edit Mode
        EDIT: Turning off Edit Mode
        EDIT: 1 artillery moved from 39 Sea Zone to Ceylon
        2 artilleries and 4 infantry moved from French Indo China to Yunnan
        1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber moved from 37 Sea Zone to French Indo China
        1 transport moved from 44 Sea Zone to 20 Sea Zone
        1 fighter moved from Japan to French Indo China
        1 submarine moved from 6 Sea Zone to 36 Sea Zone
        1 transport moved from 36 Sea Zone to 38 Sea Zone
        1 bomber moved from 39 Sea Zone to French Indo China
        1 bomber moved from 39 Sea Zone to French Indo China

    Place Units - Japanese
        1 armour, 1 infantry and 1 mech_infantry placed in French Indo China
        1 bomber, 1 fighter and 1 tactical_bomber placed in Japan
        2 submarines placed in 6 Sea Zone

    Turn Complete - Japanese
        Japanese collect 52 PUs; end with 52 PUs
        Objective Japanese 4 Control Dutch East Indies: Japanese met a national objective for an additional 5 PUs; end with 57 PUs

Combat Hit Differential Summary :

Chinese regular : 0.00
Japanese regular : -0.50
British regular : -1.83

[Arthur Bomber Harris]

This game is an Axis victory on the European side of the map. Moscow needed some more defense to survive R5, and a bunch more defense to survive R6. I can capture the Capitol with no loss to my German air force, allowing an easy push down to Egypt as you have provided no substantial defense there either. You can’t devote this high fraction of your forces to defeating Japan.

End of R4.tsvg

[Arthur Bomber Harris]

For that playoff game, the Allies had about a 30% chance to win the game on turn 17 if they did a bold attack against Japan, with a 1-2 punch of the United States and Anzac.

USA turn to go:
2022-oob-playoffs-r1-andrewaagamer-x-vs-oysteilo-a-60-us17.tsvg

After punching the fleet and taking the Money Islands, this is clearly going to be an Allied victory if the dice were favorable. It will be about a 50 PU swing of income which is impossible to overcome.
Turn 17 good outcome.tsvg

Keep in mind that Andrew is the top OOB player in the league and should be winning on either side of the match against even very good players. The key lesson is that you should take chances on decisive battles when facing a superior opponent.

[GovZ]

@arthur-bomber-harris said in GovZ (A+60) vs ABH kjf test Low Luck:

This game is an Axis victory on the European side of the map.

You are probably correct. I think I made too many early mistakes to come back.

Moscow needed some more defense to survive R5, and a bunch more defense to survive R6. I can capture the Capitol with no loss to my German air force, allowing an easy push down to Egypt as you have provided no substantial defense there either. You can’t devote this high fraction of your forces to defeating Japan.

6 US bombers can make it to Moscow before G5. I think that gives me a roughly 70% chance of holding Moscow. 7 fighters & a tac make it before G6. It’s toast after that.

Mistakes / adjustments:

1. Not moving the sub to SZ92 on UK1 cost me the Med. I don’t know what Italy would do on It1, but it definitely doesn’t get both Gib and a navy.
2. After you posted your J1, I saw you had given me Korea - so I tried testing a green skies, US4 invasion of Japan. I could hit it with 18 planes and 4 ground units. You have just enough to stop it, assuming you saw it coming J4. I think it is a lot like an early dark skies, Sealion attempt - take it if it is there, but don’t build for it.
3. With the IJN in Sumatra J2, the US should take the Caroline’s US2. You don’t need to protect Queensland against a J3 attack, you threaten SZ36, and you add leverage to SZ6 freeing up 24 IPC of build on US2.
4. Playing against a G2 DOW, Russia doesn’t have to worry as much about an Italian can opener. I think I can play a little more openly, and not have to basically turtle.
5. I would change my bid slightly: subs in 106 & 109, and 2 to the US instead of Scottish fighter & 4 to the US. I’m hoping 4 subs attack 110 & 111 on G1 and I only have to deal with 1 sub in the Atlantic.

I’m willing to continue this game, but I don’t think I will learn much more from it. I do think with the above adjustments this Allied approach is viable against a G2 / G3. If you are willing, I would like to give it another shot. If not, thanks for all your help. I really appreciate it.

[Arthur Bomber Harris]

Let’s do a rematch but with Allies +100. I think you need that big of a bid to have a competitive game.

[AndrewAAGamer]

@arthur-bomber-harris said in GovZ (A+60) vs ABH kjf test Low Luck:

For that playoff game, the Allies had about a 30% chance to win the game on turn 17 if they did a bold attack against Japan, with a 1-2 punch of the United States and Anzac.
USA turn to go:
2022-oob-playoffs-r1-andrewaagamer-x-vs-oysteilo-a-60-us17.tsvg
After punching the fleet and taking the Money Islands, this is clearly going to be an Allied victory if the dice were favorable. It will be about a 50 PU swing of income which is impossible to overcome.
Turn 17 good outcome.tsvg

A few things:

1. Why did you edit back on the 2 ANZAC fighters that were on the US carrier that died in combat? Those two fighters were cargo and thus were destroyed with the carrier.
2. You have an illegal move in your US Combat move. The US fighter that is attacking Celebes needs a US carrier to land on. That carrier then moves, after the fighter moves to Celebes, to the naval attack in SZ36. While TripleA allows this it is an illegal move. The carrier may not move out of the landing range of the US Celebes fighter. Probably better to include the fighter in the naval attack anyway.
3. I don’t understand why you removed 5 Japanese destroyers from the final US battle. Did you think too many Jap units survived? The below Low Luck scenario had 21 units surviving versus the 22 in your battle. So that was about right.
4. Why did you land the surviving IJN air units in Kwangsi? The logical spot is FIC where the airbase is. Not only does that allow for a 3 fighter scramble, instead of 3 tactical, it put the remaining air units in position to annihilate the US fleet moving to SZ6.
   5 Finally I disagree the Allied Player had a 30% chance to win that battle with a 1-2 US/ANZAC punch. Using low luck it comes out to be a 0% chance. Notice the OOL used by the IJN to accomplish this. (Needs 2.6 to open)
   Low Luck Outcome.tsvg
   

[Arthur Bomber Harris]

@andrewaagamer There were options in the match during that ~turn 17 pre-India invasion period where your opponent could have forced a decisive sea battle in the south Pacific. Those big naval battles are very dicey and it is hard to pinpoint exactly the odds. Definitely more than zero but less than 50% as you have been meticulous in your defenses.

Things swing dramatically based on the first round dice rolls. Five more hits on offense and five fewer hits on defense results in a massive change in the outcome by the end of the exchange.

I don’t want to comment any further as the game is in progress, but the concept was that a good Allied player has a fair chance to win with a 60 bid when doing a smart opening strategy.

[AndrewAAGamer]

Definitely agree that variable dice can make a massive difference in a big naval battle.

[GovZ]

@arthur-bomber-harris said in GovZ (A+60) vs ABH kjf test Low Luck:

Let’s do a rematch but with Allies +100. I think you need that big of a bid to have a competitive game.

While it would be fun to play with that much of a bid, I think I want to try 60 again:

UK subs: 39, 91, 98, 106, 109, & 110
Malta fighter
Egypt bomber
2 to US

Feel free to add Russian fighters as you deem necessary. Thanks for your help!

Assuming your G1 is reasonable, no scramble in either 110 or 111. Submerge 110. My R1 should also be the same if you want to go ahead with J1.

PS - My Stoogely brother wants me to ask if bid money can be used on ANZAC tech roles. I don’t know how serious he was, but he did really like the idea of ANZAC super subs for 5.

[GovZ]

@andrewaagamer said in GovZ (A+60) vs ABH kjf test Low Luck:

(Needs 2.6 to open)

Just downloaded this. I like the new look. Didn’t even know it existed.

[GovZ]

@andrewaagamer said in GovZ (A+60) vs ABH kjf test Low Luck:

Definitely agree that variable dice can make a massive difference in a big naval battle.

This is why I’m a fan of being aggressive with the Allies in the Pacific. Attacking in multiple waves mitigates this risk - if the US wave goes badly, the UK & ANZAC waves have time to adjust. If Japan attacks and it goes badly, it’s just screwed.

[Arthur Bomber Harris]

@govz I don’t play tech. very few people enjoy that option.