@the-general-0
Attacking first has never been a favoured strategy for me, but I never tried doing the opposite either.
Still:
I like to buy one minor industrial complex in Shanghai to smash China. I buy 1 destroyer and 1 submarine.
The Japanese navy is definitely short of transports this way, so you can swap the warships for transport of buy them in turn 2.
Main thing is buy the complex.
You also cannot buy a major industrial complex in Kwangtung, because it is a captured territory. Japan’s not having major industrial complexes anywhere on the Asian mainland, and can indeed only build more in Korea (not recommended).
I can’t predict from there, but in turn 2 don’t attack the Allies and smash China.
Turn 3 proceeds the same as turn 2.
Note:
I usually like to attack the Soviet Far East. It is torturously far from Europe, and if Germany is lucky the Soviets won’t have the men to kill you.
This has several drawbacks though:
China is closer to Europe, so the Soviets can send aircraft and tanks to China. This reinforcement is enough to knock Japan out of China, and it’s hard to salvage the situation after that. Best thing to do I destroy the Soviet units before that happens.
Also make sure to destroy Mongolian units later and be wary if the Soviets don’t defend Amur. The Soviets are still strong enough to destroy you and you can’t recover from the loss of the Kwantung Army.
Now for the Allies:
For the Pacific, the UK should send as many units as possible to China. This has the same effect as the Soviets, overwhelming the ill-supplied Japanese units and push Japan out of China.
One time I was playing as Japan against a bad US and Chinese and good British and ANZAC player. ANZAC destroyed a disproportionate amount of units and Japan only conquered Sydney by sheer mass.
So ANZAC should just do what he did, attacking weak and isolated Japanese units. Their navy should stay within fighter cover unless attacking.
China should just hold out as long as possible. Keep the Burma Road open and move the Flying Tigers to Burma when you’re almost dead.
The US should just do what they did, defending Australia and the South Pacific, whittling Japan, protecting Hawaii and striking once your superior industrial power can be brought to bear. If Japan gets a comfortable margin above the Allies and isn’t breaking their navy and air force doing so, things don’t look too good.
Important for all nations:
Aircraft carriers are important when venturing outwards against superior naval forces.
On the same note aircraft carriers are crucial to support when operating deep in enemy territory.
Japanese goals:
The main cities Japan should capture to win are Manilla, Tokyo, Hong Kong, Calcutta, Shanghai, and either Honolulu and Sydney. Here are the benefits of each:
Honolulu is closer to Japan.
It might be less well defended because there isn’t a minor industrial complex.
However, the US might be able to launch a counterattack more quickly.
Sydney is more isolated from major Allied centres of power, but can defend itself better initially. It’s much harder for the Allies to capture back though.
Overall if Japan has time and dominates the mainland, Sydney is the better choice. If things are tight, Honolulu might be worth a gamble.
Finally, get the Philippines, grab the Dutch East Indies, and cut ANZAC’s bonuses quickly!
Generally, always fulfill your National Objectives and deny your opponent’s National Objectives.